Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota Housing Demand Analysis – 2030. PREPARED FOR: The Communities of Bismarck & Mandan, North Dakota. PREPARED BY * 3275 Holdrege Street, P.O. Box 30552, Lincoln, Nebraska 68503 * OCTOBER, 2015 ANALYSIS PARTICIPANTS BISMARCK AND MANDAN, NORTH DAKOTA HOUSING DEMAND ANALYSIS - 2030. CITY OF BISMARCK CITY OF MANDAN MAYOR MAYOR Mike Seminary Arlyn Van Beek CITY ADMINISTRATOR CITY ADMINISTRATOR Bill Wocken Jim Neubauer ASST. CITY ADMINISTRATOR CITY COMMISSIONERS Keith Hunke Arlyn Van Beek Mike Braun CITY COMMISSIONERS Shauna Laber Josh Askvig Dennis Rohr Parrell Grossman Sandra Tibke Mike Seminary Nancy Guy Steve Marquardt PUBLIC INFORMATION OFFICER Gloria David Consultant: COMPREHENSIVE PLANS & ZONING * HOUSING STUDIES * DOWNTOWN, NEIGHBORHOOD & REDEVELOPMENT PLANNING * CONSULTANTS FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS* ------------ *Lincoln, Nebraska* 402.464.5383 * ------------ *Becky Hanna, Tim Keelan, Lonnie Dickson, AICP, Keith Carl* Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota Housing Demand Analysis – 2030. TABLE OF CONTENTS. TABLE OF CONTENTS. Table of Contents…………………………………………………………………………. i List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………........ iii SECTION 1 – OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ACTIVITIES & EXPECTED OUTCOMES. Introduction/Research Approach……………………………………………………… 1.1 Purpose of Study…………... …………………………………………………………… 1.2 Summary…………………………………………………………………………………. 1.3 SECTION 2 – COMPREHENSIVE CITIZEN PARTICIPATION PROGRAM. Introduction..…………………………………………………………………………….. 2.1 Citizen Housing Survey..………………………………………………………………. 2.1 Community Housing “Listening Sessions” and Key Interviews…………………. 2.3 SECTION 3 – BISMARCK & MANDAN COMMUNITY PROFILES. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………… 3.1 Population Profile…………………………………………………………………........ 3.2 Income Profile…………………………………………………………………………… 3.4 Economic Profile………………………………………………………………………… 3.6 Housing Profile………………………………………………………………………….. 3.9 SECTION 4 – HOUSING DEMAND/NEEDS ANALYSIS. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………. 4.1 Housing Demand Potential ……………………………………………………………. 4.1 Housing Target Demand……………………………………………........................... 4.4 Housing Demand By Income Sector…………………………………….................... 4.6 Housing Land Use Projections and Housing Demand By Target Sectors & Price Products – Bismarck, North Dakota……………………………………….. 4.10 Housing Land Use Projections and Housing Demand By Target Sectors & Price Products – Mandan, North Dakota…………………………………………. 4.15 Housing Rehabilitation & Demolition Demand……………………………………... 4.20 Energy Systems Solutions for Housing………………............................................. 4.21 Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota Housing Demand Analysis – 2030. i TABLE OF CONTENTS. TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued). SECTION 5 – HOUSING GOALS & ACTION STEPS. Goal 1: Housing Development Initiative……………………………………………… 5.1 Goal 2: New Housing Developments………………………………………………….. 5.3 Goal 3: Housing Stock Rehabilitation/Preservation………………………………... 5.7 Goal 4: Financial Activity for Housing Development………………………………. 5.8 Goal 5: Impediments to Fair Housing Choice……………………………………….. 5.8 SECTION 6 – HOUSING SITE & LAND USE ANALYSIS. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………. 6.1 Site Considerations………………………………………………………………………. 6.1 Housing & the Comprehensive Plan…………………………………………………. 6.4 SECTION 7 – BISMARCK & MANDAN HOUSING ACTION PLANS. Introduction………………………………………………………………………………. 7.1 Housing Projects…………………………………………………………………………. 7.3 Affordable Housing Development Options…………………………………………... 7.15 Implementing Housing Developments……………………………………………….. 7.20 APPENDIX I – CITIZEN HOUSING SURVEY RESULTS. APPENDIX II – BISMARCK & MANDAN TABLE PROFILE. Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota Housing Demand Analysis – 2030. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS. LIST OF TABLES. Table Page 4.1 Estimated 15-Year Housing Target Demand/Budget Bismarck & Mandan, North Dakota 2018-2030…………………………………………………………………………… 4.5 4.2 Area Median (Household) Income (AMI) Bismarck Metropolitan Statistical Area, North Dakota 2015…………………………………………………………………………………. 4.6 4.3 Estimated Year-Round Housing Demand By Income Sector Bismarck & Mandan, North Dakota 2015-2030………………………………………………………………………….. 4.8 4.4 Housing Land Use Projections/Per Housing Type & Age Sector Bismarck, North Dakota 2015-2030…………………………………………………………………………… 4.11 4.5 Housing Demand – Target Sectors Bismarck, North Dakota 2015-2030…………………………………………………………………………… 4.13 4.6 Housing Demand – Target Price Products (Points) Bismarck, North Dakota 2015-2030…………………………………………………………………………… 4.14 4.7 Housing Land Use Projections/Per Housing Type & Age Sector Mandan, North Dakota 2015-2030…………………………………………………………………………… 4.16 Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota Housing Demand Analysis – 2030. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS. LIST OF TABLES (Continued). Table Page 4.8 Housing Demand – Target Sectors Mandan, North Dakota 2015-2030…………………………………………………………………………… 4.18 4.9 Housing Demand – Target Price Products (Points) Mandan, North Dakota 2015-2030…………………………………………………………………………… 4.19 4.10 Target Rehabilitation & Demolition Demand & Budget Bismarck & Mandan, North Dakota 2030……………………………………………………………………………… 4.20 Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota Housing Demand Analysis – 2030. iv SECTION 1 Overview of Research Activities & Expected Outcomes. SECTION 1 OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ACTIVITIES & EXPECTED OUTCOMES. OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ACTIVITIES & EXPECTED OUTCOMES. O INTRODUCTION. O This Housing Demand Analysis provides statistical and narrative data identifying a housing profile and demand analysis for the Cities of Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota. The Analysis describes the past, present and projected demographics, economic and housing conditions in the two Communities, as well as a “Housing Action Plan,” identifying recommended future housing projects and activities. This Demand Analysis recognizes housing development in the Community as both a “quality of life” issue and an important “economic development” event. The Housing Analysis was conducted for the Cities of Bismarck and Mandan, by Hanna:Keelan Associates, P.C., a Nebraska based community planning and research consulting firm, with the assistance of City Staff, key housing stakeholders, including developers and contactors, and local residents. The Cities of Bismarck and Mandan have a track record of conducting community planning and housing studies. Recent studies include the Bismarck Growth Management Plan, the City of Bismarck 2015-2019 Consolidated Plan and recently completed Mandan Comprehensive Plan. Hanna:Keelan completed a County-Wide Comprehensive Housing Study for Morton County, including the City of Mandan, in 2013. O RESEARCH APPROACH. O The Bismarck and Mandan Housing Demand Analysis is comprised of information obtained from both public and private sources. All 2000 and 2010 demographic, economic and housing data for the Communities was derived from the U.S. Census and the 2009-2013 American Community Survey. The projection of demographic, economic and housing data was completed by the Consultant, with the use of these and secondary data sources and input from local leadership and housing stakeholders. To facilitate effective planning and implementation activities, housing demand projections were developed for a 15-year period, including three, five and 10-year projections. The implementation period for this Housing Demand Analysis will be October, 2015 to October, 2030. Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota Housing Demand Analysis – 2030. 1.1 SECTION 1 OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH ACTIVITIES & EXPECTED OUTCOMES. O PURPOSE OF STUDY. O “The purpose of this Housing Demand Analysis is to continue a ‘housing vision’ and provide a ‘vehicle to implement’ housing development programs with appropriate public and private funding sources for Bismarck and Mandan, North Dakota. This will insure that proper guidance is practiced in the development of various affordable housing types for persons and families of all income sectors.” The Objectives of this Housing Demand Analysis are seven-fold: (1) analyze the recent past and present housing situation in Bismarck and Mandan, with emphasis on determining the need for rental and owner housing options for workforce families, the elderly and special needs populations; (2) provide a process for educating and energizing the leadership of Bismarck and Mandan to take an active role in improving and creating modern and safe, both market rate and affordable, housing options; (3) identify the future target housing needs for Bismarck and Mandan; (4) design program-specific housing projects to address the needs of the local workforce, the elderly and retirees, families of all sizes and income levels and persons with special needs; (5) encourage a Downtown Housing & Redevelopment Initiative for Bismarck and Mandan, including expanding the use of each Community’s “Renaissance Zone Incentives”; (6) introduce new and innovative housing programs that are a “fit” for Bismarck and Mandan, to address both immediate and long-term housing needs. (7) address and eliminate any impediments and/or barriers to fair housing opportunities for all citizens of Bismarck and Mandan; This Housing Demand Analysis included both quantitative and qualitative research activities. The qualitative research activities included a comprehensive citizen participation program consisting of a Citizen Housing Survey, Housing “Listening Sessions” with key Community organizations and general citizenry, and meetings with Community staff/administration and key housing stakeholders. The purpose of these qualitative activities is to maximize opportunities