Scaling up off-grid solar energy access through improved understanding of customers’ needs, aspirations and energy use of decentralised (SMART) Solar Home Systems – a case study of BBOXX customers in Rwanda. Iwona Magdalena Bisaga Centre for Urban Sustainability and Resilience Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering Faculty of Engineering University College London Thesis Submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2018 i Abstract In the fast-growing market of decentralised energy systems, stand-alone PV Solar Home Systems (SHSs) are among modern solutions which have quickly grown in numbers across the unelectrified parts of the world, substituting often polluting, expensive and inefficient sources like candles, kerosene or battery-powered torches used for lighting homes and businesses. Little research has been done to understand behavioural aspects of energy use among SHSs adopters. This case study aims to address this gap in the body of knowledge regarding energy use behaviour, needs and aspirations, focusing on SHSs users in Rwanda through both qualitative and quantitative research methods. It applies the Three-Dimensional Energy Profile framework to explore the needs, aspirations and energy use at a household level, with a recognition of differences among genders, different poverty groups and various system packages consisting of a diverse range of appliances. Time factor is considered to better understand whether and how needs and energy consumption change over time, demonstrating that energy use is dynamic and power consumption does not increase in a linear manner. Further findings reveal a substantial decrease in the use of candles, kerosene and batteries for lighting, with continued fuel stacking practices post-SHS adoption. Business applications are basic, as are the needs in terms of the most-desired appliances, which cover lighting, phone charging, access to information and entertainment, and other daily use appliances, such as shavers and irons. Aspirational level of access to energy services has the potential to be met by SHSs with increased availability and affordability of super energy efficient appliances, and appropriate business models. This can enhance the already significant impact on HHs, which has a well-defined gender dimension, with women benefiting the most. Policy and regulatory frameworks remain an important factor in scaling up off-grid energy access as key market enablers, channels of awareness-raising and trust-building among off-grid communities. ii Impact Statement This research has contributed to the existing body of knowledge on an emerging and highly important subject of current and future electrification efforts in Rwanda, which can be applied in other countries aiming to scale up their energy access rates and reach universal electrification by the 2030 deadline set by the Sustainable Development Goal 7. It has made a significant contribution to the academic body of research on the use and impact of decentralised energy solutions (DREs), such as off-grid Solar Home Systems, in a low-income country context, and by doing so improved the understanding of how such solutions are used by predominantly rural households in Rwanda. This case study has informed the private sector of decentralised off-grid solar energy, offering valuable findings which can guide product and service design, and improve the provision of energy services in Rwanda, East Africa and beyond, now and in the future. It has had a direct impact on the industry partner (BBOXX), generating insights on the customer base which are critical for business model development, as well as continued product and service improvement. It has additionally helped in establishing a customer research department and the setting up of end-user focussed research activities which have since been expanded and have become an integral part of company’s operations in Rwanda and other countries where BBOXX have their presence. Furthermore, the scope of and findings from this research have informed the design of the ‘Socio-Economic Impact Research’ and the off-grid solar impact metrics led by the Global Off-Grid Lighting Association (GOGLA) in partnership with a number of private companies in the off-grid solar sector, including BBOXX. Impact on energy policy and regulation has been achieved in a twofold manner: first, through the seminar organised at and with the University of Rwanda College of Science and Technology (UR-CST) on “Off-grid solar in Rwanda: The way forward” (October 2016) where early findings of this research were presented and which was attended by various stakeholders from academia, the private and the public sectors, as well as the donor and NGO community in Rwanda; and second: through the WIREs Energy and Environment publication (2018) covering issues around existing policy iii frameworks and home-grown solutions (HGS), and their potential of scaling up energy access efforts by promoting off-grid solar solutions at the grassroots level. Further impact on the wider energy sector, including both policymakers and practitioners, has been made through other published articles in renowned journals, including Energy Policy and Energy Research & Social Science, focusing on the application of Internet of Things (IoT) solutions as enablers of off-grid energy services (2017), and proposing a novel approach to understanding energy use behaviour of SSHSs adopters through Social Practice Theory (SPT) lens and the energy ladder framework (2018). Having assumed an original approach to qualitative research methods on energy access, which, in addition to more traditional tools such as Focus Groups and surveys, has incorporated participatory photography to explore the rich and often unquantifiable aspects of energy uses and impacts, this research has contributed to the relatively small existing body of academic work which relies on photography as a tool for data collection. Moreover, this research has impacted the public through several public engagement activities, including the mentioned seminar on off-grid solar energy in Rwanda, and photography exhibitions in both Rwanda (Kigali) (May 2017) and the United Kingdom (London) (June 2017) based on the participatory photography workshops with the users of SSHSs across Rwanda utilised as a data collection tool. Additionally, participants of the participatory photography workshops were able to share their experience and talk about why energy access matters in their lives and learn about the experience of other rural HHs across the country, which they would not be able to learn without this engagement. Feedback received from the participants strongly indicated that a positive impact had been achieved. Through the researcher’s collaboration with the Energy and Development Group at UCL, this research has been used as a case study and findings have been cited in the Group’s publications, of which the researcher is also a co-author. Contacts established in the course of conducting this research in Rwanda have also been helpful in writing funding proposals, both for internal UCL opportunities and external ones. iv Last but not least, this work has been presented at several conferences attended by the researcher, namely the Annual Association of American Geographers conference (San Francisco, March-April 2016), UNESCO Chair in Technologies for Development ‘Tech4Dev Conference’ hosted by the Cooperation & Development Centre (CODEV) and the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL) (Lausanne, May 2016), 3rd UCL Urban Sustainability and Resilience Centre (USAR) conference (London, June 2017), Low Carbon Energy for Development Network (LCEDN) 6th conference (Durham, September 2017), and the ‘Off-grid solar in Rwanda: The way forward’ seminar (Kigali, October 2016) and ‘Social Research on Off-Grid Solar’ conference (London, December 2015) organised by the researcher. Further dissemination of this work has been done through blogs, hosted blogs, a personal website of the researcher, and interviews (UCL Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering ‘Keep it Civil’ podcast, Rwanda TV of Rwanda Broadcasting Agency (RTV RBA)). v Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................ ii Impact Statement ......................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................ vi List of Figures and Tables ............................................................................................ x Publications and Conferences .................................................................................... xx Statement of Originality ........................................................................................... xxii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................. xxiii List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ...................................................................... xxvi Note on Currency .................................................................................................... xxix Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Problem statement ......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research partner ...........................................................................................