Gas 2019 Analysis and forecast to 2024 Gas 2019 Analysis and forecast to 2024 Gas Market Report 2019 Foreword Foreword In 2018, natural gas played a major role in a remarkable year for energy. Global energy consumption rose at its fastest pace this decade, with natural gas accounting for 45% of the increase, more than any other fuel. Natural gas helped to reduce air pollution and limit the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions by displacing coal and oil in power generation, heating and industrial uses. The global gas narrative varies across regions: cheap and abundant resources in North America; a key contributor to reducing air pollution in the People’s Republic of China; a main feedstock and fuel for industry in emerging Asia; challenged by renewables in Europe; an emerging fuel in Africa and South America. What ties these together is the central position of gas in the global energy mix as one of the key enablers of the energy transition. Natural gas can be part of the solution to a cleaner energy path – both on land and at sea as an alternative marine fuel – but it faces its own challenges. They include ensuring price competitiveness in developing economies, guaranteeing security of supply in increasingly interdependent markets, and continuing the reduction of its environmental footprint, particularly in terms of methane emissions. Natural gas is at the heart of three core areas for the IEA: energy security, clean energy and opening to emerging economies. I hope that this latest edition of the IEA’s outlook for gas markets will help enhance market transparency and enable stakeholders to better understand current and future developments. This is particularly important for the IEA, which has seen the ranks of its member and association countries grow in recent years to include the world’s largest emerging economies. Last year, we welcomed Mexico and South Africa. The expanding IEA family accounted for almost 70% of global gas consumption growth in 2018. This global footprint underscores the IEA’s ability to help shape energy policies for a more secure and sustainable energy future for all. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency PAGE | 3 IEA. All rights reserved. Gas Market Report 2019 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This publication has been prepared by the Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division (GCP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The analysis was led and co-ordinated by Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil, Senior Natural Gas Analyst. Gergely Molnár, Cristina Morillas Sendín, Tomoko Uesawa and Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil are the main authors. Sean O’Brien and Masamichi Wada provided essential research and statistical support. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the IEA Energy Markets and Security (EMS) Directorate, and Peter Fraser, Head of GCP, provided expert guidance and advice. Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions including Mariano Berkenwald, Stéphanie Bouckaert, Laura Cozzi, Carlos Fernández Alvarez, Lucie Girard, Tim Gould, Sunah Kim, Tae-Yoon Kim, Olivier Lejeune, Christophe McGlade, Rebecca McKimm, Bruce Murphy, Alan Searl, Paul Simons, Glenn Sondak, Tristan Stanley, Aad van Bohemen, László Varró, Yang Lei, Aya Yoshida, and Peter Zeniewski. Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were fundamental to the report. The IEA Communication and Digital Office (CDO) provided production and launch support. Particular thanks to Jad Mouawad and his team: Astrid Dumond, Katie Lazaro, Jethro Mullen, Rob Stone and Therese Walsh. Justin French-Brooks edited the report. The report was made possible by assistance from Enagás, Mitsubishi Corporation and Tokyo Gas. The IEA would like to thank Dipak Agarwalla (Shell), Tim Boersma (Columbia University, United States), Anne-Sophie Corbeau (BP), Jeff Edwards (Shell), Andrew Garnett (University of Queensland, Australia), Francesco Gattei (Eni), Jinli Han (Beijing Gas Group), Volker Kraayvanger (Uniper), Armelle Lecarpentier (Cedigaz), Akos Lodz (Columbia University, United States), Leonard Marquis (DCF), Tatiana Mitrova (Skolkovo, Russia), Leslie Palti-Guzman (GasVista), Wolfgang Peters (The Gas Value Chain Company), Gregor Pett (Uniper), María Sicilia (Enágas), Jonathan Stern (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom), Andrew Walker (Cheniere Energy) and Takuma Yamamoto (Tokyo Gas) for their support, review and comments. The individuals and organisations that contributed to this study are not responsible for any opinions or judgements it contains. Any error or omission is the sole responsibility of the IEA. For questions and comments, please contact GCP ([email protected]). reserved. rights All PAGE | 4 IEA. Gas Market Report 2019 Table of contents Table of contents Executive summary ....................................................................................................................................... 9 1. Demand................................................................................................................................................... 13 Highlights ....................................................................................................................................................... 13 Global overview .............................................................................................................................................. 13 Regional outlook ............................................................................................................................................ 19 References ..................................................................................................................................................... 64 2. Supply ..................................................................................................................................................... 71 Highlights ....................................................................................................................................................... 71 Global overview .............................................................................................................................................. 71 Regional supply outlook ................................................................................................................................. 72 References ................................................................................................................................................... 106 3. Trade ..................................................................................................................................................... 113 Highlights ......................................................................................................................................................113 Global natural gas trade ................................................................................................................................ 114 Regional trade outlook ..................................................................................................................................115 Global LNG market ....................................................................................................................................... 129 References ................................................................................................................................................... 143 4. Prices and market reforms ...................................................................................................................... 147 Highlights ..................................................................................................................................................... 147 Market prices in 2018–19 .............................................................................................................................. 147 Global natural gas pricing overview ............................................................................................................... 152 Pricing and market reforms in regulated environments ................................................................................. 158 References ................................................................................................................................................... 169 Annexes .................................................................................................................................................... 173 Tables ....................................................................................................................................................... 173 Glossary .................................................................................................................................................... 177 List of figures Figure 1.1. Global natural gas demand by sector, 2004–24 .......................................................................... 15 Figure 1.2. LNG consumption for maritime shipping by main segment, 2018–24 ......................................... 17 Figure 1.3. Natural gas demand by country and sector, Asia Pacific, 2004–24 .............................................. 19 Figure 1.4. Natural gas demand by sector, China, 2006–24 .......................................................................... 21 Figure 1.5. Natural gas demand, Japan, 2004–24 ......................................................................................... 26 Figure 1.6. Power generation by