Population Trends Tasmanian Local Government Areas 1993-2017 Department of Premier and Cabinet Local Government Division Government of Tasmania Published 2019 Published by the Department of Premier and Cabinet Phone 03 6232 7022 Fax 03 6173 0257 GPO Box 123 HOBART TAS 7001 [email protected] www.dpac.tas.gov.au 19/1510 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia license © Crown in right of the State of Tasmania 2018 Population Trends | Local Government Population Trends, Tasmanian Local Government Areas 1993-2017 Introduction Population growth in Tasmania and across Australia more generally has recently received considerable interest from policy makers at all three levels of government. Tasmania currently has the oldest and slowest growing population in Australia, though the growth rate has improved significantly in recent years. Population growth to date has occurred at various rates across Tasmanian Local Government Areas. Key trends outlined in this paper may inform future strategies for dealing with predicted population growth or decline. They may form part of the backdrop to the ongoing discussion on the viability and sustainability of small, rural and regional councils, in the face of the services they will be expected to deliver. This document describes and summarises key trends from 1993 to 2017, but does not seek to analyse or explain the drivers of changes that have occurred. It uses the latest available data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to examine population trends in Tasmanian Local Government Areas from 1993 to 2017. All information is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistic’s Regional Population Growth book 3218.0 - Population Component Data. Relevant data is included in Appendices I & II. Council classifications Information in this document is grouped under five council classifications, based on population size and density and in line with the Australian Classification of Local Governments (ACLG). Data is presented in council groupings which are based on the Australian Classification of Local Governments, first published in September 1994, to help the Australian Government understand the needs of local government across Australia. The classifications take into account population size and density. In 2016-17, Tasmanian councils fit into the five classifications shown below. Urban medium Urban small Rural agricultural Rural agricultural Rural agricultural, councils councils very large councils large councils small & medium (UM) (US) (RAVL) (RAL) councils (RASM) population population population population population 30,000—70,000 20,000 to 30,000, or 10,000—20,000 5,000—10,000 under 5,000 up to 20,000 where density less than 30 density less than 30 density less than 30 density more than 30 people per km2 people per km2 people per km2 people per km2 Clarence City Brighton *Derwent Valley Break O’Day Central Highlands Glenorchy City Burnie Huon Valley Circular Head Flinders Island Hobart City Central Coast *Latrobe Dorset Glamorgan-Spring Bay Kingborough Devonport Meander Valley George Town King Island Launceston City West Tamar Northern Midlands Kentish Tasman Sorell Southern Midlands *West Coast Waratah-Wynyard * Changes to population figures have resulted in movements between classifications for: Derwent Valley Council, from RAL to RAVL – population increased to above 10,000 people in 2014; Latrobe Council, from RAL to RAVL – population increased to above 10,000 people in 2010; and West Coast Council, from RAL to RASM – population declined to below 5,000 people in 2011. Population Trends | Local Government Division | Department of Premier and Cabinet 3 Population Trends | Local Government Tasmanian council regions Information in this document is also grouped by council regions. Regional trends show where the majority of population growth is occurring, and can be used to help form regional council strategies. Tasmanian councils can generally be split into three regions: North (N), North West (NW) and South (S). The regions are highlighted in Figure 1, below. The North West region is made up of nine councils in the Cradle Coast Authority. The North West has three urban small councils (Burnie, Central Coast and Devonport), two rural agricultural very large councils (Latrobe and Waratah-Wynyard), two rural agricultural large councils (Circular Head and Kentish), and two rural agricultural small & medium councils (King Island and West Coast). The Northern region is made up of Figure I. Map of Tasmanian Local Government Areas by region. 8 councils, consisting of one urban medium council (Launceston), one urban small council (West Tamar), two rural agricultural very large councils (Meander Valley and Northern Midlands), three rural agricultural large councils (Break O’Day, Dorset and George Town), and one rural agricultural small & medium council (Flinders) The remaining 12 councils form the Southern region. The region has four urban medium councils (Clarence City, Glenorchy City, Hobart City and Kingborough), one urban small council (Brighton), three rural agricultural very large councils (Derwent Valley, Huon Valley and Sorell), one rural agricultural large council (Southern Midlands), and three rural agricultural small & medium councils (Central Highlands, Glamorgan-Spring Bay and Tasman). The Greater Hobart (GH) region forms a subset of the Southern region, consisting of Hobart, Kingborough, Glenorchy, Brighton, Clarence and Sorell. Together, these councils make up over 40 per cent of Tasmania’s population, and have experienced the largest growth in population from 1993- 2017. Population Trends | Local Government Division | Department of Premier and Cabinet 4 Population Trends | Local Government Population Change by Council Figure 2 shows the total change in population from 1993 to 2017. A total of eighteen councils saw a population increase in the 24 year period since 1993, with a total of nine councils seeing a decrease in total population from 1993. Those councils that saw a decrease in population include Flinders Island, George Town, King Island, Circular Head, Waratah-Wynyard, Central Highlands, Burnie, Dorset and West Coast. Figure 2. Change in Total Population by Council, 1993 – 2017. Change in Total Population by Council 1993 - 2017 Launceston Clarence Hobart Glenorchy Kingborough Devonport Central Coast Burnie West Tamar Meander Valley Waratah/ Wynard Huon Valley Brighton Northern Midlands 1993 2017 Derwent Valley Council Sorell Circular Head Dorset Latrobe West Coast George Town Break O'Day Southern Midlands Kentish Glamorgan/ Spring Bay Central Highlands Tasman King Island Flinders Island 0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 Population Population Trends | Local Government Division | Department of Premier and Cabinet 5 Population Trends | Local Government Figure 3 shows that Council growth and decline ranged from 58 per cent to – 43 per cent. Sorell saw the sharpest increase in population, with an increase of 58 per cent or 5 411 people. The West Coast saw the sharpest decrease in population with a decrease of 43 per cent, or 3 083 people. The populations of Derwent Valley and Devonport remained stable during the time period. Figure 3. Percentage Change in Total Population by Council, 1993 – 2017. Percentage Change in Population by Council 1993 - 2017 Sorell Latrobe Brighton Kingborough Huon Valley West Tamar Kentish Meander Valley Tasman Southern Midlands Northern Midlands Clarence Hobart Glamorgan/Spring Bay Break O'Day Council Glenorchy Launceston Central Coast Derwent Valley Devonport George Town Waratah/Wynyard Flinders Island Circular Head Burnie Dorset King Island Central Highlands West Coast -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Percentage change Population Trends | Local Government Division | Department of Premier and Cabinet 6 Population Trends | Local Government Figure 4 shows that Councils with large populations of more than 10 000 people experienced the majority of growth from 1993 – 2017 (RAVL, US and UM). Only three councils with smaller populations experienced high population growth. The majority of growth also occurred in the Southern region. In contrast, Figure 5 shows the majority of decline occurred in councils with small populations of less than 10 000 people (RAL, RASM). Only two councils with large populations experienced population decline. The majority of decline occurred in the North West region, followed by the Northern region. Only one council in the Southern region experienced a population decline from 1993 – 2017. Figure. 4. Councils with High Population Growth. Councils with the Highest Population Growth as a Percentage 1993 - 2017 Classification Region 1993 2017 Percentage Council Difference Population Population Change Sorell RAVL S (GH) 9 360 14 771 + 5 411 + 58% Latrobe RAVL NW 7 351 11 109 + 3 758 + 51% Brighton US S (GH) 12 307 16 960 + 4 653 + 38% Kingborough UM S (GH 27 000 37 133 + 10 133 + 38% Huon Valley RAVL S 13 105 16 870 + 3 765 + 29% West Tamar US N 19 036 23 530 + 4 494 + 24% Kentish RAL NW 5 262 6 296 + 1 034 + 20% Meander Valley RAVL N 16 365 19 572 + 3 207 + 20% Tasman RASM S 2 097 2 390 + 293 + 14% Southern Midlands RAL S 5 321 6 053 + 732 + 14% Figure 5. Councils with Low Population Growth Councils with the Lowest Population Growth as a Percentage 1993 – 2017 Classification Region 1993 2017 Percentage Council Difference Population Population Change West Coast RASM NW 7 245 4 162 - 3 083 - 43% Central Highlands RASM S 2 725 2 148 - 577 - 21% King Island RASM NW 1 870 1 592 - 278 - 15% Dorset RASM N 7 358 6 704 - 654 - 9% Burnie US NW 20 628 19 210 - 1 418 - 7% Circular Head RAL NW 8 577 8 088 - 489 - 6% Flinders Island RASM N 998 957 - 41 - 4% Waratah/Wynyard RAVL NW 14 284 13 755 - 529 - 4% George Town RAL N 7 060 6 917 - 143 - 2% Devonport US NW 25 109 25 212 + 103 + 0% Population Trends | Local Government Division | Department of Premier and Cabinet 7 Population Trends | Local Government Population Change by Region Figure 6 shows the change in population over time by Region.