Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Countries andRegions Countries DIRECTIONS INDEVELOPMENT Resilience of an African Giant ofanAfrican Resilience Boosting Growth andDevelopment in the Boosting Growth Democratic RepublicofCongo Democratic Johannes Herderschee, Kai-Alexander Kaiser, Kai-Alexander Kaiser, Johannes Herderschee, and DanielMukokoSamba Resilience of an African Giant Resilience of an African Giant Boosting Growth and Development in the Democratic Republic of Congo Johannes Herderschee Kai-Alexander Kaiser Daniel Mukoko Samba © 2012 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved 1 2 3 4 14 13 12 11 This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. 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Congo (Democratic Republic)—Economic policy. 3. Economic development—Congo (Democratic Republic) I. Kaiser, Kai-Alexander. II. Mukoko Samba, Daniel. III. World Bank. IV. Title. HC955.H47 2011 338.96751—dc23 2011038070 Cover photograph: Macaire Tshiala Bongo / The World Bank Cover illustration: Jeffrey Lecksell / The World Bank Cover design: Naylor Design Contents Foreword ix Preface xi Acknowledgments xv Abbreviations xix Executive Summary 1 A Fragile Recovery 1 Governance and the Evolution of Political Institutions 4 Overcoming the Governance Challenges 5 Priority Setting for the New Government 7 Managing Political Consolidation and Sustaining Growth 10 Notes 11 Chapter 1 Introduction 13 Notes 22 Chapter 2 A Fragile Renaissance 23 A Growing, but Weak, Economy 24 v vi Contents Improved Economic Growth and Modest Poverty Reduction 27 Natural Resource Disparities and Regional Inequality 29 Coexistence of Integrated and Isolated Sectors 32 Improved Macroeconomic Indicators, but High Risks 35 Lack of Good Governance and the Functioning of Economic Activities and Public Services 37 Priorities to Improve Economic Outcomes 40 Notes 41 Chapter 3 Government Effectiveness 43 Steps to an Improved Political Consensus 43 The State’s Economic Challenges 51 Building on the Macroeconomic and Democratic Reforms: What Comes Next? 55 Notes 56 Chapter 4 Unlocking the Infrastructure Challenge 57 Current Status of Major Infrastructure Sectors 58 Investment Priorities 65 State-Owned Enterprises and Service Delivery 69 Notes 73 Chapter 5 Private Sector Development and Employment Creation 75 Employment 76 Legal Protection for Economic Activities and Employment 83 Technology and Financial Sector Development 88 Employment Growth through Natural Resource Development 91 Prioritizing the Next Steps by Defining Growth Poles 96 Notes 98 Chapter 6 How to Sequence Policy Interventions? 101 Progress and Direction 102 Challenges 103 Contents vii Identifying Instruments and Sequencing Their Application 104 Opportunities to Experiment in a Large, Diverse Country 107 Notes 111 References 113 Boxes 1.1 Main Points of the Background Papers 19 1.2 Recent Developments in the Economic Growth Literature 21 2.1 Foreign Aid, by Donor, Sector, and Region 34 3.1 Lack of Transparency in Public Finance Management 53 4.1 Lessons from Uganda’s Experience with Governance in the Transport Sector 63 4.2 The Telecom Sector: Key Elements That Supported Its Rapid Growth 70 4.3 Public-Private Partnership in the Education Sector 71 5.1 The 2010 Investment Climate Assessment Survey 77 5.2 Alternatives to Relieving Binding Constraints to Trade, Investment, and Growth 84 5.3 Judicial Reform 88 5.4 Experience with Social Programs Implemented in the Context of the 2008–09 Financial Crisis 92 6.1 Provincial Budget Management Peer Learning Event 109 6.2 A Growth Pole Pilot Program? 110 Figures ES.1 GDP per Capita, 1960–2008 2 ES.2 Public Investment as a Percent of GDP 7 1.1 Long-Term Economic and Security Indicators 16 2.1 Economic Growth, 1960–2010 25 2.2 GDP Growth, by Sector, 1996–2010 26 2.3 Investment, Aid, and Trade, 2000–10 33 B2.1 Foreign Aid, by Creditor and Sector, 2006–09 34 2.4 Government Balance, Net Credit to the Government, and Inflation 36 2.5 Governance Indicators, 2000–09 38 2.6 Percent Enrollment in Primary and Secondary Education, 1984–2007 39 3.1 Gross Foreign Assets in the Central and Commercial Banks, 2003–10 52 viii Contents B3.1 Budgets Allocated by Parliament and Budget Execution, 2008–10 54 4.1 Public Investment in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Select Countries 68 5.1 Indicators of Uncertainty in Cross-Border Transactions in Select Regions 82 5.2 Copper Exports, 2002–18 95 Maps 1.1 Geographic Location of Violent Events, 2006–08 17 2.1 Per Capita Income and Average Annual Economic Growth, by Province, 2006–10 31 4.1 Electric Power Generation and Transmission System 59 4.2 Transport Corridors 61 Tables ES.1 Agricultural Growth, by Data Source, 2007–10 6 1.1 Poverty Indicators in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sub-Saharan Africa, 2007 14 1.2 Select Historical Events in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 1960–2011 18 2.1 Human Development Indicators in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sub-Saharan Africa, 1980–2010 28 2.2 Sources of Economic Growth (Adjusting for Human Capital), 1992–2010 29 2.3 Real Growth in Agricultural Production, by Province, 2007–10 30 2.4 Fiscal Balance on a Commitment and Cash Basis, 2001–10 37 B5.1 Results of the 2010 Investment Climate Assessment Survey 77 5.1 Perceived Obstacles to Registration, 2006 and 2010 78 5.2 Estimated Impact of Improved Border Procedures at the Kinshasa-Brazzaville Border 83 Matrixes 6.1 Policy Areas and Instruments: Examples of Successes and Failures 105 6.2 Examples of Interdependencies among Policy Interventions 108 Foreword This book pulls together an impressive body of research on the exemplary transition of a country from a state of conflict to a postconflict situation, and from there toward becoming a country with legitimate institutions created by free, democratic, and transparent elections. The reader’s attention will most certainly be drawn to the occasionally candid manner in which the facts contained in this book are presented. This serves, in particular, to augment one’s frame of reference and help the reader better grasp the nature of the issues confronted by all develop- ment actors. The detailed analysis of administrative, political, and economic gover- nance over the past 20 years facilitates a better understanding of the context and the fragile situations faced by the Democratic Republic of Congo. Without ever deferring to the Government in any way, the authors highlight the failures and successes amassed on the development front. Through the quality of their work and the accuracy of their state- ments, they offer us the opportunity to begin thoughtful discussions about the policies to be adopted in order to achieve the development outcomes that are much anticipated by the Congolese people. As the Minister of Planning and the former President of the National Assembly, I found this book to be particularly interesting as it calls for ix x Foreword a hard look at the way matters of State are broached. It urges us to abandon egotism, to repudiate self interest in favor of the search for the common good, and to cultivate a sense of nationhood. In this way, this book may well constitute an invitation to a true revolution of mentali- ties. I therefore wholeheartedly recommend it to all who are interested in development, particularly to policy makers in my country, as well as its partners. Olivier Kamitatu Etsu Minister of Planning, Democratic Republic of Congo Preface A stable, peaceful, and prosperous Democratic Republic of Congo prom- ises to have transformational impacts not only for the country’s 67 million citizens but also for the entire subregion. Indeed, the Democratic Republic of Congo is the largest country in Sub-Saharan Africa by land area and the third largest in population. At a crossroad between West-Central Africa and East-Southern Africa, it is a neighbor of the East African Community (more than 130 million inhabitants) and a member of the vast Southern African Development Community (260 million inhabitants).