2021 United States l Canada EMERGING TRENDS IN REAL ESTATE® Untitled-2 1 10/12/20 3:20 PM Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021 A publication from: Untitled-2 2 10/12/20 3:20 PM Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021 Contents 1 Notice to Readers 94 Chapter 3 Property Type Outlook 50 Industrial/Logistics 3 Chapter 1 Dealing with Certain Uncertainties 57 Single-Family 6 Are We Home Yet? 1 6 Multifamily 9 The Great American Move 69 Office 1 1 Reinventing Cities Post-COVID 75 Hotels 3 1 Accelerating the Retail Transformation 78 Retail 5 1 From Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case 6 1 Location, Location, Safety 38 Chapter 4 Emerging Trends in Canadian 8 1 The Economy Stumbles (and the Real Estate Real Estate Sector Hangs On) 38 Reimagining Portfolios: Strategies to Succeed in 1 2 The Great Fiscal Challenge Times of Uncertainty 32 Affordable Housing Crisis Likely to Explode 68 18-Hour and 15-Minute Cities: Staying Ahead of an without Intervention Evolving Real Estate Customer 4 2 From Moment to Movement: Racial and Social 09 Necessity versus FOMO: A Shifting Proptech Equity Landscape Opens New Possibilities for Digital Transformation 13 Chapter 2 Markets to Watch 93 Property Type Outlook 1 3 COVID-19 Giveth and Taketh 79 Markets to Watch 33 Grouping the Markets 102 Expected Best Bets for 2021 103 Interviewees Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021 i Editorial Leadership Team Emerging Trends Chairs PwC Advisers and Contributing Researchers R. Byron Carlock Jr., PwC Aaron Sen* Frédéric Lepage* Matthew Berkowitz W. Edward Walter, Urban Land Institute Abhi Jain Giancarlo Dimaio* Matthew Killick* Authors Alex Howieson* Glenn Kauth* Maxime Lessard* Ali Abbas* Gloria Park Mike Harris* Anita Kramer Alpa Patel* Gordon Ashe* Milan Kshatriya* Andrew Warren Amy Brohman* Haley Anderson Mirjana Simonovski* William Maher André Voshart* Hameer Vaid Mitch Roschelle Melinda McLaughlin Andrew Alperstein Hanna Mo Munezeh Wald Andrew Nelson Andrew Patterson* Henry Zhang* Nadia King* Onay Payne Andrew Popert* Howard Ro Nadja Ibrahim* Eric Tsang Andrew Popliger* Iain Fraser* Nareesa Christian* Anthony Di Nuzzo* Ian Gunn* Natalie Cheng* Authors, Chapter 3: Property Type Outlook Ashley Somchanh* Ian Nelson Neil Conklin John Vitou, Industrial Ashley Yanke* Isabelle Morgan Nick Ethier* John McManus, Apartments and Single-Family Homes Audrey Tulio* Itisha Jain Nick Mobilio* Avery Munger Ivy Chiu* Nicole Stroud Paige Mueller, Office Aynsley Price* Jacque Mihovk Oliver Reichel Tara Lobo, Hotels Bill Kropp Jacqueline Kelly Pascale Lavoie* Andrew Nelson, Retail Billy Ampatzis* Jacqueline Kinneary Patricia Perruzza* Contributors Brandon Johnson Jane Stewart Paul Hendrikse* Brett Matzek Jasen Kwong* Peter Harris* Katharine Burgess Brian Colantuoni Jason Swallow* Philippe Desrochers* John Chang Brian Ness Jeff Kiely Philippe Pourreaux* Lesley Deutch Bryan Allsopp* Jennifer Dybick Rachel Klein Elizabeth Foster Bryan Solomon Jenny Li* Rahim Lallani* David Guarino Calen Byers Jeremy Lewis Rajveer Hundal* Beth Burnham Mace Carly Stallwood* Jessica Gaska Renee Sarria Cathy Helmbrecht Jessica Gordon Ricardo Ruiz Ken Perlman Charles Campany John Bunting* Richard Munn Carl Whitaker Chris Bailey John Crossman Rick Roma Senior Advisers Chris Dietrick John Rosano Rick Ruiz Chris Merchant John Satelmajer Ritesh Chopra Steven Weisenburger, PwC Chris Nicholaou John Simcoe* Robert Sciaudone Fred Cassano, PwC, Canada Chris Vangou* John Wayne Ron Budulka* Miriam Gurza, PwC, Canada Christian Sedor Johnathan Cannon* Ryan Ciccarone Frank Magliocco, PwC, Canada Christine Lam* Jonathan Osten* Ryan Dumais Christopher J. Potter, PwC, Canada Christopher Bender Jordan Moore Ryan Welch Christopher Hurst Joseph Biengardo Sabrina Fitzgerald* ULI Editorial and Production Staff Christopher Mill Joseph Chiu* Sam Melehani James A. Mulligan, Senior Editor Cindy Wu* Joseph Moyer* Sandy Chan* David James Rose, Managing Editor/Manuscript Editor Courtney McNeil Josh Parks Sartaz Ahmed* Brandon Weil, Creative Director/Cover Designer Dan Genter Joy Dutta* Scott McDonald* Deanna Pineda, Muse Advertising Design, Designer Dan Ryan Julia Loh* Sean Bailey* Daniel D’Archivio* Julia Baker Sean Ballington Craig Chapman, Senior Director, Publishing Operations Daniel Moates Jyoti Lunia* Shareen Yew Jacob Behrmann, Senior Associate, Capital Markets and Real Estate Daniel Sego Kara Notvedt Simon Dutil* Clay Daneker, Senior Associate, Capital Markets and Real Estate Daniel Weisberger Karin Coetzee Spyros Stathonikos* Danielle Desjardins* Katelyn Weiss Stephen Cairns Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trademark of PwC and is regis- Dave Swerling Katherine Zaslavsky Stephen Crisafulli tered in the United States and other countries. All rights reserved. David Baldwin Keaton Meidinger Steve Robertson David Gerstley Kelly Tang Steve Tyler At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important David Hughes Ken Griffin* Steven Tirado problems. PwC is a network of firms in 158 countries with more than David Neale* Kendall Kocela* Susan Kelly 250,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, David Seaman Kevin Fossee Tasneem Saley* advisory, and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to David Voss Kevin Too* Thomas Cormier you by visiting us at www.pwc.com. David Whiteley* Kevin Vermeulen Thomas Godward David Yee* Kristen Conner Thomas Kozak © 2020 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the U.S. member firm Dheeraj Bisla* Kristen Smith Tim Bodner or one of its subsidiaries or affiliates, and may sometimes refer to the Doug Struckman Kristina Derek* Tim Conlon PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see Dylan Anderson Kristy Romo Tim Mueller www.pwc.com/structure for further details. Dylan Shuff Kyle Demersy Timothy Buttigieg © October 2020 by PwC and the Urban Land Institute. Ed Sheeran Laura Lewis* Tina Raether Edward Faccio Leah Waldrum Tom Wilkin Printed in the United States of America. All rights reserved. No part Emily Pillars Lee Overstreet Tressa Teranishi* of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means, Eric Presacco* Lori-Anne Beausoliel* Trevor Toombs* electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or by Erica Pereira* Lorilynn Monty Warren Marr any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission Ernie Hudson* Louis Alain* Wendy McCray-Benoit of the publisher. Ethan Blackwell Luisa Breidt Wesley Mark* Recommended bibliographic listing: Eugene Bomba* Manisha Chen* Zoe Funk Eugene Chan Mario Longpré* PwC and the Urban Land Institute: Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Fabrizio Quattrocchi* Martin Bernier* 2021. Washington, D.C.: PwC and the Urban Land Institute, 2020. François Berthiaume* Martin Schreiber *Based in Canada. Frans Minnaar* Matt Manza ISBN: 978-0-87420-464-3 ii Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021 Notice to Readers Emerging Trends in Real Estate® is a trends and forecast publication now in its 42nd edition, and is one of the most highly regarded and widely read forecast reports in the real estate industry. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021, undertaken jointly by PwC and the Urban Land Institute, provides an outlook on real estate investment and devel- opment trends, real estate finance and capital markets, property sectors, metropolitan areas, and other real estate issues throughout the United States and Canada. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021 reflects the views of individuals who completed surveys or were interviewed as a part of the research process for this report. The views expressed herein, including all comments appearing in quotes, are obtained exclusively from these surveys and interviews and do not express the opinions of either PwC or ULI. Interviewees and survey participants represent a wide range of indus- try experts, including investors, fund managers, developers, property companies, lenders, brokers, advisers, and consultants. ULI and PwC researchers personally inter- viewed 1,350 individuals, and survey responses were received from more than 1,600 individuals, whose company affiliations are broken down below: Private property owner or commercial/multifamily real estate developer: 38% Real estate advisory or service firm: 17% Private-equity real estate investor: 12% Investment manager/adviser: 11% Bank and other lenders: 9% Homebuilder or residential land developer: 7% Equity REIT or publicly listed real estate property company: 3% Private REIT or nontraded real estate property company: 1% Other entity: 2% Throughout this publication, the views of interviewees and/or survey respondents have been presented as direct quotations from the participant without name-specific attribution to any particular participant. A list of the interview participants in this year’s study who chose to be identified appears at the end of this report, but it should be noted that all interviewees are given the option to remain anonymous regarding their participation. In several cases, quotes contained herein were obtained from interview- ees who are not listed in the back of this report. Readers are cautioned not to attempt to attribute any quote to a specific individual or company. To all who helped, the Urban Land Institute and PwC extend sincere thanks for shar- ing valuable time and expertise. Without the involvement of these many individuals, this report would not have been possible. Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021 1 2 Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2021 Chapter 1: Dealing with Certain Uncertainties Dealing with Certain Uncertainties “There are a bunch of things that will change