Scripting Transitions A framework to analyze structural changes in socio-technical systems Anish Patil Delft University of Technology Scripting Transitions A framework to analyze structural changes in socio-technical systems Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Technische Universiteit Delft, op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. ir. K.C.A.M. Luyben, voorzitter van het College voor Promoties, in het openbaar te verdedigen op 6 juni 2014 om 15:00 uur door PATIL Anish Chandrakant Master of Engineering, Vanderbilt University, USA geboren te India. Dit proefschrift is goedgekeurd door de promotor(en): Prof dr. ir. P.M. Herder Prof dr. ir. M.P.C. Weijnen Copromotor: Dr. P.W.G. Bots Samenstelling promotiecommissie: Rector Magnificus, voorzitter Prof. dr. ir. P.M. Herder, Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Prof. dr. ir. M.P.C. Weijnen, Technische Universiteit Delft, promotor Dr. P.W.G. Bots, Technische Universiteit Delft, copromotor Prof. Dr. rer. nat. C. Binder, University of Munich Prof. Dr. K. Brown, Curtin University Prof. dr. C.P van Beers, Technische Universiteit Delft Prof. dr. R.W. Kunneke, Technische Universiteit Delft Prof. dr. ir. W.A.H. Thissen, Technische Universiteit Delft, reservelid ISBN 978-90-79787-59-3 This research was funded by the Next Generations Infrastructures Foundation. This thesis is number 70 in the NGInfra PhD Thesis Series on Infrastructures. An overview of titles in this series is included at the end of this book. Publisher: Next Generations Infrastructures Foundation P.O.Box 5015, 2600 GA Delft, the Netherlands www.nginfra.nl Keywords: TranScript, transitions, sustainable energy system, socio-technical systems Copyright © 2014 Anish Patil. All rights reserved. Cover image: Andreas Ligtvoet and Anish Patil Printed in the Netherlands by Gildeprint Drukkerijen, Enschede To my wife, Zsofia Preface and Acknowledgements Given the amount of time I have spent on this thesis, it would not be an exaggeration to call it a transition. During this transition, many changes have taken place in my life – I got married, with two beautiful daughters, an interesting job, and travelled to more than 50 different countries. This transition took time, but I thoroughly enjoyed it. Best parts of this transition were these ‘detours’. It is like going on a vacation where everything is planned out but one day you make a wrong turn or take a detour, and end up somewhere completely new and different, doing something you never thought you’d do. Maybe you feel a little nervous while it's happening. However, looking back, you realize it was the best part of the whole trip. Looking back on my PhD phase, this is how I feel today. These detours made this phase memorable for me. Maybe I am just romanticizing this a tad, as memories are short-lived, and I may have forgotten some tough moments during this time. My wife used to tease me, saying that I will retire doing a PhD, but for once I proved her wrong. Married men will identify with me on this one. Whatever it is, at this moment while writing this final piece related to my thesis, I feel happy the way this transition has panned out for me. Of course there were a few ups and downs, but given a chance to do it again I may not do anything drastically different. I have seen many PhD’s talk about life after PhD, but surely I had a life before and during my PhD, and things won’t be terribly different even after. During this transition, I met many nice people, and I would like to take this opportunity to thank all these people who have helped me successfully reach my intended destination. First of all, I would like to thank my promotors Paulien Herder and Margot Weijnen. Margot, thanks for giving me the opportunity to pursue a PhD at Delft. I still remember our brief phone conversation when you hired me as a PhD researcher and everything was arranged quickly after for me to start my work here. You watched this transition from a distance and always gave me confidence that I would finish it successfully. Paulien, thanks for always being there for me during this transition. You have seen me go through many highs and lows during this phase, but you always trusted me (or if you may have not, you never showed it). This trust gave me the strength to finish this thesis. Many thanks also go to my co-promotor, Pieter Bots. However, knowing Pieter, I should keep this acknowledgement short, crisp and clear; anything else and it will be superfluous. Pieter, thanks for helping me with the scientific rigor, especially in ‘structuring’ my thoughts so I could bring this PhD ‘process’ to a successful end. Without your help this thesis would not have been completed. I would also like to thank Kas Hemmes and the late Barry Lichter for bringing me in contact with Margot, and helping me in getting this PhD position. Thanks also to Hans Vrijenhoef, for reducing my contract at Proton last year, so I could concentrate on getting this thesis done. Furthermore, I would like to acknowledge the Greening of Gas project and the Next Generations Infrastructure program for sponsoring my research. P a g e | vii Special thanks go to Rob Stikkelman. He is truly the bridge between industry and academics at the E&I section. During my PhD phase he brought me in touch with Proton Ventures, where I have been working for the past four years. And later while working at Proton, we teamed up to work on a TUDelft/NGI project. Over these years I have seen him help many PhD’s, of course in his own special way. It’s been great working with him. I appreciate the help the E&I secretariat has provided me over these years, especially Eveline, Prisca, Connie, Angelique and Rachel. I would further like to thank my peer group at TBM - Buyung, Geertje, Igor and Telli for their constructive feedback over the years. During this phase I have travelled to many different countries. Some of these trips were for academic conferences with other E&I section members, with many great and interesting moments. Special mention to the family portraits (with a self-timer of course) in Taiwan and New Zealand with Laurens and Hamilcar; Samba dancing in Rio with them and Catherine; missing our flight in Berlin on our way back with Austin and having to take an overnight train in freezing cold; the ‘brave teacher’ – Laurens, sticking his head out of the toy train while coming down from the Alishan mountains; crashing a Rotary club party in Taipei with Hamilcar and actually receiving a big china set as a gift! Given its international mix, section E&I was always fun to be a part of, especially because of the ‘axis’ – Leslie, Monica and Austin, who were not just colleagues but over time became great friends, too. I am glad that Leslie and Austin have agreed to be my paranymphs for the defense. Special thanks to my neighbors – Jan, Marianne, Jo and Kees. They have always treated me like family, and made me feel welcome in their homes. This special bond with my neighbors and my ex- roommates from Zusterlaan – George, Pawel and Pantelis, made Delft ‘home away from home’ for all these years. I would also like to thank our friends in Delft – Rakhi, Zeeshan, Elis, Koen, André and Fanni for many interesting social gatherings and good times. Over these years my squash and tennis group have become really good friends to me, especially Robbert, Jeroen, Andreas, Ben and Luca. Ben, I have always enjoyed our squash games, our yearly 40 km ‘Midvastenlopen’ and sauna discussions. You have always inspired me with your open- mindedness and positive outlook. Andreas and Luca, we were in the same boat for a long time, and I truly appreciate our discussions about the thesis, travels, sports and other good and better things in life. Andeas, thanks for your help with the cover design for this book and the Dutch translations. This group has just not helped me in my personal life, but also played a large role in my academic life. There have been moments when I was 0-8 down in squash and I have come back to win the game, similarly in tennis too. It was not just about winning the game, but much more than that. I told myself, if I can still win a game from being 0-8 down then I can certainly finish my PhD thesis one day too. Especially, I remember the Midvastenlopen four years ago. I was walking with Ben, Andreas and Zsofi. Around 18 km mark one of my knees completely gave up on me. I could have easily given up at that point, but I told myself if I give up on the remaining 22 kms, one day I might just easily give up on my thesis as well. At that point, I made up my mind that I am going to finish the race and also my thesis one day. I completed the remaining 22 kms with the help of a stick and physical and P a g e | viii emotional support from Zsofi. I have completed Midvastenlopen many times over the last ten years, but this was the most satisfying of all, as I knew at that point that I will one day complete my thesis! I am indebted to my parents for all their love and support. My father, with his around the world travels and my mother, with her desire to try new things have always been an inspiration to me.