RIA59 11/07/07 22:00 Page 1 N°59 - July 12 2007 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS KREMLIN P. 1-2 Politics & Government c The Olympic Games - or greatness by other means KREMLIN c The Olympic Games - On 4 July in Guatemala, Russia won the right to organize the 2014 Winter Olympic Games. But its or greatness by other means success is not just of passing interest. Over the last few months the Kremlin has powerfully lobbied the MEDIAS International Olympics Committee. In addition to using the good offices of Gazprom, RAO EES and c How the Kremlin cares Rosneft, Vladimir Putin in the last two or three years has mobilized several oligarchs including Vladimir for “good journalists” Potanin (Interros), Alexey Mordashov (Severstal), Vladimir Yevtushenkov (Sistema), Mikhail Fried- c Trouble in the Anti-Putin man (Alfa Bank), Viktor Vekselberg (Renova) and, especially, Oleg Deripaska (Rusal). It nonetheless camp remains that the challenge is huge as most of the infrastructure has yet to be put into place, whether it is information technology, road, rail and air access, energy supply or accommodation (an estimated P. 3-6 Business & Networks 25,000 hotel rooms need to be built). Nevertheless, the leading members of the candidature committee ENERGY - Deputy Prime Minister Alexandre Zhukov, Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin and Sports Minister c Rosneft: Igor Sechin comes Vyacheslav Fetisov – have won a precious victory for Russia. out of the shadows But what are the short-term consequences of this victory? First of all a stampede of Russian compa- ALERT nies (followed by foreign undertakings) is expected on the main work to be carried out. It is interest- c Diplomatic Problems for the North Europe Gas Pipeline ing to note that one of the first interventions of Vladimir Putin following the Olympic Committee’s de- FOCUS cision was to warn against corruption and the embezzlement of public funds. Among the main beneficiaries c Caspian Pipeline Consortium: of these Games (which will attract investments estimated at around 10 billion dollars), one can already the trial of strength continues mention Deripaska who last November won the auction for the privatized Sochi airport, the country’s BEHIND THE SCENE seventh-ranking gateway, and for which speedy development is expected (Russia Intelligence No.44 of c Who’s got a grudge against 1 December 2006). Construction of a new terminal is already earmarked and Oleg Deripaska’s recent Vladimir Bogdanov? acquisitions in the building sector, notably Strabag and Hochtief, have become clearer (Russia Intel- SILOVYE MASHINY ligence No.56 of 31 May 2007). It is also probable that the Russian oligarchs will wage battle, not for the c Alexey Mordashov Ambushed right to build Olympic infrastructures but to enhance the region’s tourist facilities. Besides, numerous ALERT heated exchanges have taken place on this subject this winter (Russia Intelligence No.42 of 2 Febru- c Rosbank: Société Générale ary 2007). Vladimir Potanin’s Interros is particularly engaged in Roza Khutor, a vast scheme to build speeds up operations several hotels and ski lifts while Gazprom is building a “presidential village” on a “green field site”. The DEVELOPMENT BANK acquisition of land and the grant of building permission could result in fierce legal and financial bat- c The Fradkovs in Control tles. DEFENSE At the political level the Sochi Olympics are a personal victory for Vladimir Putin whose complete c Russian Naval Shipbuilding personal investment in securing the Games is widely recognized, boosting his popularity in Russia. It is opens to International certainly not this that will make him change his mind on his decision not to run for a third term, but it Cooperation could be useful in the “Post Putting” period. On the other hand, it is certain that it will enhance the prestige of Alexandre Tkachev, the governor of Krasnodar. Russia Intelligence has followed his career P. 7 Regions & CIS for a long time (we devoted a major profile on him in our Number 40 of 30 September 2006), for the very TATARSTAN good reason that he enjoys a good reputation with Vladimir Putin. Tkachev has the support of Oleg De- c Mintimer Shaymiev wins ripaska, but even if the governor’s name has been brought up in this matter on several occasions, it is his case in the Kremlin probably not enough for him to be a candidate in the presidential election. But it is felt that an impor- ALERT tant scenario is being played through the Winter Olympics that cannot fail to have repercussions on the c Moldova: Anatoly political scene. Moreover, it is the whole of southern region of Russia which might at last benefit from Chubais’s advisor freed a return to favor both from Russian and foreign investors. SUBSCRIPTION At the international level Russian diplomacy will not fail to grasp a new opportunity to fight for the Print Edition recognition of the country’s newly acquired importance on the world political scene. This will be of little (23 issues, airmailed overseas) use in the quarrel between Moscow and Washington on the establishment of a missile defense shield in €770 TTC central Europe (and which over the last few days has resurfaced with the United States’ categorical re- The Web Pack fusal to Russia for a “shared investment” as Vladimir Putin suggested at the G8 summit), but Russia will (Print Edition be only more swift to claim to be a major power. “This is one of the greatest moments in Russia’s history”, + PDF + archives acess) said Dmitry Chernyshenko, the managing director of the Sochi 2014 Committee. This statement may € 880 TTC seem somewhat grandiloquent but it is in line with the deep-seated feeling of Vladimir Putin’s govern- The Premium ment. This will undoubtedly have political consequences both within and outside the Federation. d Subscription (Print Edition + PDF + access The next editions of Russia Intelligence, Ukraine Intelligence and Central Asia and Caspian Intelli- to all the website contents) gence will appear on 30 August next – unless, of course, if event demand immediate analysis and € 1200 TTC comment. Central Asia and Caspian Intelligence will be published on 30 August as a double issue. www.russia-intelligence.fr RIA59 11/07/07 22:00 Page 2 RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government MEDIAS c How the Kremlin cares for “good journalists” This is all about a ceremony that the main people concerned four of the NGOs receiving these funds are lead by or have been hope will remain discreet. On 27 June sixty or so journalists set up by members of the Public Chamber. The institute of received awards from the Kremlin for their “major contribu- Valery Fadeev, Number Two at the commission for national tion to the development of national television and their fruit- development strategy, thus will receive two million euros to ful work”. Among the lucky few were Alexey Pushkov, the pre- carry out various opinion polls and “ensure the monitoring of senter of the “Post-Scriptum” political programme on TV Tsentr, Russian civil society”. The All-Russia national charity fund and several reporters from NTV (including the Paris correspon- the “Knowledge” foundation will receive 18 million euros in dent, Vadim Glusker), the news presenters of the public chan- grants. These two organizations are unknown in the Muscovite nel RTR - Maria Sittel, Mikhail Antonov and Konstantin NGO scene, but, questioned by the correspondent of gazeta.ru, Syomin - Alexey Malkov (who distinguished himself with sev- the FSB declared it knew about them. It should be said that eral very incisive features on Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Viktor gazeta.ru is located at No.4, Lubyanka court. Yushchenko, Boris Berezovsky and Garry Kasparov), the editor in chief of the rolling news channel Russia Today, Mar- On the eve of the elections, the Kremlin is using all the garita Simonyan, much appreciated by Vladimir Putin, who means at its disposal to avoid bad surprises. It is noteworthy never fails to send her flowers on her birthday, and Nikolay that the supervisory board of one of the country’s main daily Senkevich, the managing director of Gazprom media. After newspapers, Komsomolskaya Pravda, purchased by the ESN having received their decorations from the hands of Sergey Grigory Beryozkin power group, (Russia Intelligence No.48 Sobyanin, the head of the president’s services, the journalists of February 2) has appointed a new chairman in the shape of left for Novo-Ogaryovo, where they had an informal meeting Oleg Rudnov. This citizen of Saint Petersburg heads the BMG with Vladimir Putin. press group which has under its wing several newspapers cir- culating in the northern capital (Smena, Nevskoe Vremya, Journalists are not the only intermediaries that the Krem- Vecherny Peterburg etc) and the Baltika radio station. Oleg lin has been particularly pampering recently. On 3 July the Rudnov, aged 59, is close to Vladimir Putin, who he met in 1996 Russian President announced the grant of around 35 million on the support committee for Anatoly Sobchak. He is also a euros to six non-governmental organizations “with the aim of business partner of Yuri Kovalchuk, the head of Rossia bank developing civil society”. These institutes were chosen on the whose activities have been regularly reported in Russia Intel- recommendation of the Public Chamber (Obshchestvennaya ligence (No. 46-47 of 19 January 2007 and No.55 of May 16 2007) Palata), the consultative body established in 2005 that is sup- and which, among other things, controls the national televi- posed to represent Russian civil society. Coincidence or not, sion stations Ren-TV and TRK Peterburg. d Trouble in the Anti-Putin camp With just a few months to go before the movement’s strategy and especially, settle Russia”.