ROAD TO REBELLION: THE DEVELOPMENT OF ETHNIC TERRORISM by Brandon M. Boylan B.A., Mercyhurst College, 2003 M.A., University of Limerick, 2004 Submitted to the faculty of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2013 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH GRADUATE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS This dissertation was presented by Brandon M. Boylan It was defended on October 9, 2012 and approved by Michael Kenney, Ph.D. Associate Professor Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh Paul Nelson, Ph.D. Associate Professor Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh Tony Novosel, Ph.D. Lecturer Department of History University of Pittsburgh Dissertation Advisor: Taylor Seybolt, Ph.D. Assistant Professor Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh ii Copyright © by Brandon M. Boylan 2013 iii ROAD TO REBELLION: THE DEVELOPMENT OF ETHNIC TERRORISM Brandon M. Boylan, Ph.D. University of Pittsburgh 2013 DISSERTATION ABSTRACT Why does widespread terrorism develop from some ethnic groups but not others? I define this type of violence - ethnic terrorism - as terrorism conducted in the name of an ethnic identity group. This dissertation examines the development of ethnic terrorism with a framework drawn from the motives, means, and opportunities (MMO) structure familiar from criminal law. I argue that the motive for ethnic terrorism is the violation of ethnic groups’ human security; the means is sponsorship primarily by the host ethnic group but also by foreign actors; and the opportunity is a vacuum in political space created by the departure of nationalist leadership, which allows terrorist elites to rise to dominate the ethno-political agenda. Each is necessary for the development of ethnic terrorism. I conduct paired comparisons between the Tamils and Muslims in Sri Lanka and the Basques and Catalans in Spain to test this argument. The Tamils and Basques have encountered intense and long-lasting terrorism through the respective campaigns of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), while the Sri Lankan Muslims and Catalans have witnessed little violence emanating from within their communities. Data collected from fieldwork in Sri Lanka and Spain support the argument that human security violations, sponsorship, and political vacuums explain large-scale ethnic terrorism. In addition, I estimate a series of regression models to assess the generalizability of my argument. I have created a new statistical dataset on ethnic terrorism that covers the globe by merging publicly available data on ethnic groups and terrorist incidents at the ethnic group-year unit of analysis in accordance with an original coding methodology. The models provide broad support for the argument. This research advances a three-tiered theory to understand ethnic terrorism, especially the dimension that has been underdeveloped in the terrorism literature: opportunity structure. Terrorism develops when nationalist actors willingly or inadvertently cede to terrorist organizations the occasion to dominate the ethno-political agenda. It also contributes to the burgeoning literature that explores linkages between human security and political violence and broadens understanding of terrorism in the discipline marked primarily by interest in jihadist phenomena. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Tables .................................................................................................................................................................. ix Figures ................................................................................................................................................................. x Acronyms and Abbreviations.......................................................................................................................... xi Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Dissertation Argument ........................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Academic Contributions ........................................................................................................................ 4 1.3.1 Contributions to the Ethnic Conflict Literature .......................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Contributions to the Terrorism Literature ................................................................................... 7 1.3.3 Contributions to Studies of Violence in Sri Lanka and Spain ................................................... 9 1.4 Definition of Ethnic Terrorism ........................................................................................................... 11 1.5 Relevance of Ethnicity to Terrorism .................................................................................................. 16 1.6 Dissertation Outline .............................................................................................................................. 18 Chapter 2. The Motive, Means, and Opportunity of Ethnic Terrorism .................................................. 19 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 Motive: Human Security Violations ................................................................................................... 20 2.3 Means: Sponsorship .............................................................................................................................. 26 2.3.1 Domestic and Diaspora Sponsorship ......................................................................................... 26 2.3.2 Active and Passive Sponsorship .................................................................................................. 28 2.3.3 Willing and Unwilling Sponsorship ............................................................................................. 29 2.4 Opportunity: Occasion for Dominance of the Ethno-Political Agenda....................................... 31 2.5 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 35 Chapter 3. Research Design and Methodology ........................................................................................... 36 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 36 3.2 Qualitative Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 36 3.2.1 The Method of Structured, Focused Comparison .................................................................... 37 3.2.2 Positive and Negative Cases ......................................................................................................... 38 3.2.3 Types of Comparisons .................................................................................................................. 39 v 3.2.4 Case Selection Criteria ................................................................................................................... 39 3.2.5 Qualitative Data Sources ............................................................................................................... 41 3.2.6 Interview Data Limitations and Discussion ............................................................................... 42 3.3 Quantitative Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 43 3.3.1 Ethnic Terrorism Dataset (ETD) ................................................................................................ 44 3.3.2 Data Time Frame, Methods, and Quantitative Data Sources ................................................. 49 3.3.3 Statistical Data Limitations and Robustness Checks ................................................................ 50 3.4 Conclusion .............................................................................................................................................. 53 Chapter 4. The Tamils and Muslims in Sri Lanka ....................................................................................... 54 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 54 4.2 The Tamils and Terrorist Violence ..................................................................................................... 56 4.2.1 Overview of Tamil Eelam............................................................................................................. 56 4.2.2 Overview of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) ................................................... 57 4.2.3 The