Vital but vulnerable: Climate change vulnerability and human use of wildlife in Africa’s Albertine Rift J.A. Carr, W.E. Outhwaite, G.L. Goodman, T.E.E. Oldfield and W.B. Foden Occasional Paper for the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 48 The designation of geographical entities in this book, and the presentation of the material, do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IUCN or the compilers concerning the legal status of any country, territory, or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of IUCN or other participating organizations. Published by: IUCN, Gland, Switzerland Copyright: © 2013 International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. Citation: Carr, J.A., Outhwaite, W.E., Goodman, G.L., Oldfield, T.E.E. and Foden, W.B. 2013. Vital but vulnerable: Climate change vulnerability and human use of wildlife in Africa’s Albertine Rift. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 48. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. xii + 224pp. ISBN: 978-2-8317-1591-9 Front cover: A Burundian fisherman makes a good catch. © R. Allgayer and A. Sapoli. Back cover: © T. Knowles Available from: IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Publications Services Rue Mauverney 28 1196 Gland Switzerland Tel +41 22 999 0000 Fax +41 22 999 0020 [email protected] www.iucn.org/publications Also available at http://www.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/SSC-OP-048.pdf About IUCN IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, helps the world find pragmatic solutions to our most pressing environment and development challenges. IUCN works on biodiversity, climate change, energy, human livelihoods and greening the world economy by supporting scientific research, managing field projects all over the world, and bringing governments, NGOs, the UN and companies together to develop policy, laws and best practice. IUCN is the world’s oldest and largest global environmental organization, with more than 1,200 government and NGO members and almost 11,000 volunteer experts in some 160 countries. IUCN’s work is supported by over 1,000 staff in 45 offices and hundreds of partners in public, NGO and private sectors around the world. Web: www.iucn.org IUCN Species Survival Commission The Species Survival Commission (SSC) is the largest of IUCN’s six volunteer commissions with a global membership of 8,000 experts. SSC, working with the Global Species Programme of IUCN, advises IUCN and its members on the wide range of technical and scientific aspects of species conservation and is dedicated to securing a future for biodiversity. SSC has significant input into the international agreements dealing with biodiversity conservation. Web: http://www.iucn.org/about/work/programmes/ species/about_ssc/index.cfm TRAFFIC is the leading non-governmental organization working globally on trade in wild animals and plants in the context of both biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. TRAFFIC is a strategic alliance of IUCN, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, and WWF. http://www. traffic.org Vital but vulnerable: Climate change vulnerability and human use of wildlife in Africa’s Albertine Rift J.A. Carr, W.E. Outhwaite, G.L. Goodman, T.E.E. Oldfield and W.B. Foden Author Contributions The authors of this report contributed in the following ways: WF conceived of, raised funds for and managed the project. TO coordinated the human livelihoods component. WF and JC coordinated collection of climate change vulnerability data. JC and WF conducted the climate change vulnerability assessments and subsequent analyses. TO and GG developed the methodological approach to gathering data on human use of species and GG carried out expert consultation to identify species of importance for human use. GG and WO collected human use data from the literature and analysed the results. JC and WO produced maps and figures. JC, WO, WF and TO wrote and edited the report. Author affiliations and contact details Jamie Carr1 ([email protected]) Willow Outhwaite2 (willow.outhwaite@traffic.org) Gemma Goodman3 ([email protected]) Thomasina Oldfield2 (thomasina.oldfield@traffic.org) Wendy Foden1 ([email protected]) 1 IUCN Global Species Programme, 219c Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, United Kingdom 2 TRAFFIC International, 219a Huntingdon Rd, Cambridge CB3 ODL, United Kingdom 3 Synchronicity Earth, 32a Thurloe Place, London, SW7 2HQ, United Kingdom (formerly with TRAFFIC International) ii • Vital but vulnerable: Climate change vulnerability and human use of wildlife in Africa’s Albertine Rift Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................................. vi Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................vii Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................viii Chapter 1. Introduction and Background .................................................................................................1 1.1 Rationale and objectives of the study .............................................................................................1 1.2 Geographic description of the Albertine Rift ..................................................................................2 1.2.1 Burundi ...................................................................................................................................2 1.2.2 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) ............................................................................2 1.2.3 Rwanda ..................................................................................................................................4 1.2.4 United Republic of Tanzania ..................................................................................................4 1.2.5 Uganda ...................................................................................................................................4 1.2.6 Zambia ...................................................................................................................................5 1.2.7 The lakes ................................................................................................................................5 1.3 Biodiversity of the Albertine Rift .....................................................................................................5 1.4 Historical climates of the Albertine Rift ..........................................................................................8 1.5 Human use of wild species in the Albertine Rift .............................................................................9 1.5.1 Global use of wild species .....................................................................................................9 1.6 Climate change and the Albertine Rift .......................................................................................... 10 1.6.1 Mechanisms of climate change impacts on species ..........................................................10 1.6.2 Climate change predictions for the Albertine Rift ............................................................... 10 1.6.2.1 Projected changes in temperature .............................................................................14 1.6.2.2 Projected changes in precipitation ............................................................................14 1.6.2.3 Other projected changes ...........................................................................................15 1.6.3 Observed recent climatic changes in Albertine Rift countries ................................................. 16 1.6.4 Impacts of climatic changes on the Albertine Rift’s biological systems .................................. 16 1.6.4.1 Mountain ecosystems ................................................................................................ 17 1.6.4.2 Forests and woodlands ..............................................................................................17 1.6.4.3 Grasslands and savannahs ........................................................................................18 1.6.4.4 Freshwater wetlands, lakes and rivers .......................................................................18 1.6.4.5 Cross-biome Impacts................................................................................................. 19 1.6.4.6 Human environments ................................................................................................. 19 Chapter 2. Methods .................................................................................................................................20 2.1 Compiling baseline species data ..................................................................................................20 2.1.1 Compiling species lists for the Albertine Rift .......................................................................20