The implications of sea level rise for Sydney’s coastal planning and management Claire Jones 3131004 31 October 2008 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would firstly like to sincerely thank Peter Williams, my thesis advisor for all his assistance, great advice and for also making his time available to meet me regularly during the course of my work especially at the end of the semester when it is a busy time. I would next like to thank Robert Freestone, Course Authority for his guidance in particular in the course Research Design which enabled me to set early on, a relatively clear direction for the undertaking of this thesis project. I am also very grateful for the responses of the council officers who participated in the survey as without their information and insights, the exploration of the implications of sea level rise for local governments would not have been possible. Finally, thank you to my Mum and Dad for their support during this time period. i TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables and Figures....................................................................... iii Abstract................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction 1.1 Project background................................................................. 1 1.2 Aims and objectives................................................................ 2 1.3 Methodology........................................................................... 2 1.4 Thesis structure....................................................................... 5 2. Literature Review 2.1 Introduction............................................................................. 7 2.2 Assessment and modelling..................................................... 8 2.3 Planning and management approaches................................. 10 2.4 Conclusion.............................................................................. 13 3. Legislative and Policy Context 3.1 Introduction............................................................................. 14 3.2 Commonwealth Government.................................................. 14 3.3 NSW State Government......................................................... 17 3.4 Local Government.................................................................. 24 3.5 Conclusion.............................................................................. 25 4. Sydney and Environs 4.1 Introduction............................................................................. 26 4.2 Results.................................................................................... 28 4.3 Discussion.............................................................................. 39 4.4 Conclusion.............................................................................. 41 5. The Northern Beaches – a case study 5.1 Introduction............................................................................. 42 5.2 Pittwater Council..................................................................... 44 5.3 Warringah Council.................................................................. 48 5.4 Manly Council......................................................................... 54 5.5 Conclusion.............................................................................. 57 6. Conclusion 6.1 Thesis summary..................................................................... 58 6.2 Recommendations.................................................................. 61 6.3 Concluding Remarks.............................................................. 63 Bibliography............................................................................................. 65 Appendix 1.............................................................................................. 70 Appendix 2.............................................................................................. 71 ii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Tables Table 1: Vulnerability of SCCG council to sea level rise, storm surge and 28 climate change Table 2: Information sources typically consulted by professionals 30 Table 3: Snapshot of Northern Beaches LGAs 44 Table 4: Climate Change Levy poll results 56 Figures Figure 1: Research methodology structure 3 Figure 2: Theory diagram 7 Figure 3: Photo montage of Sandon Point development from Bulli Lookout 19 Figure 4: NSW Coastal Policy framework of key roles and implementation 22 Figure 5: Map of current SCCG member councils 26 Figure 6: Net vulnerability map 28 Figure 7: The type of tools used by coastal professionals 33 Figure 8: The type of likely affected areas by SLR 34 Figure 9: The level of community interest in SLR as rated by the Sydney 36 coastal councils. Figure 10: Hierarchy of priorities identified by the councils for future SLR 38 management and planning Figure 11: Sydney’s Northern Beaches 43 Figure 12: Coastal vulnerability of Sydney’s Northern Beaches 43 Figure 13: Schematic diagram of the determination of Coastline 45 Management Lines Figure 14: Narrabeen Lagoon, looking west from Narrabeen foreshore 47 Figure 15: Sand Point, on Pittwater foreshore 47 Figure 16: Snappermans Beach, Palm Beach 47 Figure 17: The Collaroy Beachfront following a major storm in 1920 50 Figure 18: Looking north along Narrabeen Beach on 18 June 2007 50 Figure 19: Looking south along Narrabeen Beach on 18 June 2007 50 Figure 20: Summary of management options for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach 52 Figure 21: Major storm damage along Manly Ocean Beach in 1950 55 Figure 22: Looking south along Manly Ocean Beach 55 Note: All other images were taken by the author unless otherwise stated. iii ABSTRACT Scientific research both globally and domestically has argued that human-induced, accelerated sea level rise (SLR) will lead to a range of impacts to coastal locations. However sea level rise impacts will vary from location to location which is why local government will primarily be responsible for confronting these local issues. The central question this thesis examines is the preparedness of local governments to address the challenges that potential sea level rises will bring to marine and estuarine areas. Existing legislation and policy are reviewed, a broader survey of coastal based Sydney councils undertaken, and the planning and management approaches of three councils examined in detail. The research indicates that most Sydney coastal councils are starting to take some action in relation to sea level rise issues but there is a pervasive view that the State Government must exercise leadership and set clear directions on climate change adaptation planning. Sea level rise is a global issue but one that is primarily going to be dealt with at the local level. It will be vital that appropriate resources and consistent guidelines and directions be provided to local governments to implement new planning and management approaches. iv 1. INTRODUCTION 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Project background The months of May and June 1974 marked one of the most volatile weather periods in New South Wales (NSW). A number of severe storms caused significant damage and erosion to beaches and properties on the NSW central and southern coasts (Resource Assessment Commission, 1993). Thirty-three years on, a landmark court decision (discussed in Chapter 3) on a NSW south coast development site has illuminated the seriousness with which decision makers must consider climate change impacts, particularly accelerated sea level rise (SLR) that threatens the future health and vitality of our coastal environments. The threat of accelerated, human induced rising sea levels and its implications on coastal planning and management processes for the coastlines of Sydney is the focus of this thesis. Scientific research led by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on a global level and domestically through the CSIRO has argued that accelerated SLR, as one potential impact caused by climate change, will ‘likely’ result in further widespread coastal and beach erosion, land inundation and loss of ecosystems (Pyper, 2007). The IPCC and CSIRO suggest that NSW ocean levels could rise by between 18 centimetres to 91 centimetres by 2100, also taking into account ice flow melt from the Polar Regions (Ribbons, 2007). There are however, gaps in current understanding in the effects of sea level rise and in turn the application to coastal planning and management (Hebert and Taplin, 2006). With this general acceptance, the Commonwealth Government is starting to take research and planning further. However sea level rise impacts will vary from location to location which is why local government will primarily be responsible for confronting these local issues. In the NSW context there have been limited attempts to create a state wide strategic framework to deal with future planning and adaptation issues associated with sea level rise. Thus the responsibility has typically fallen on local governments, but it will be crucial that decisions be made under national and/or state strategic frameworks and that appropriate resources be provided to local government to implement new and/or revised planning and management approaches. 1 The central question this thesis will examine is the preparedness of local governments to address the challenges that potential sea level rises will bring to marine and estuarine areas. 1.2 Aims and objectives In order to investigate the implications of sea level rise for local governments in the Sydney context and how local councils will adapt their coastal planning