LAND USE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE SUCCULENT KAROO. Zuziwe Jonas Submitted in fulfillment of the requirements of a degree of Masters of Science SUPERVISORS: Prof. Timm HOFFMAN. Dr. Mathieu ROUGET. Botany Department Leslie Hill Institute for Plant Conservation University of Cape Town Rondebosch 7701 February 2004 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...................................................................................................IV ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................VI CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE SUCCULENT KAROO BIOME.................... 1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY.................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................ 3 PLANT BIODIVERSITY OF THE SUCCULENT KAROO BIOME ....................................................... 4 HISTORY OF LAND USE PRACTICES IN THE SK BIOME .............................................................. 5 LAND USE PRACTICES IN THE SK BIOME.................................................................................. 6 Urban settlement ................................................................................................................6 Mining ................................................................................................................................ 6 Agriculture (cropland and livestock production)............................................................... 7 Conservation ...................................................................................................................... 8 LAND USE IMPACT AND THREATS ............................................................................................ 8 WHY HAS THIS STUDY BEEN UNDERTAKEN? ............................................................................ 9 Aims of the study and key questions ................................................................................. 10 Thesis structure ................................................................................................................10 CHAPTER 2 CURRENT EXTENT OF LAND USE PRACTICES IN THE SUCCULENT KAROO BIOME AND SUCCULENT KAROO ECOSYSTEM PLAN PLANNING DOMAIN........................................................................................................... 12 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................... 12 METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................... 15 Source of data: land use................................................................................................... 15 SKEP workshops.......................................................................................................................15 National Land Cover (NLC) dataset..........................................................................................18 ENPAT dataset..........................................................................................................................18 CSIR dataset..............................................................................................................................18 Classification system ........................................................................................................ 19 GIS and statistical approach............................................................................................ 20 Protocol .....................................................................................................................................20 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................... 22 Current extent of land use practices in the SK biome, SKEP domain, and SKEP sub- regions.............................................................................................................................. 22 Urban settlement........................................................................................................................22 Mining .......................................................................................................................................22 Cropland production..................................................................................................................25 Livestock production.................................................................................................................26 Conservation..............................................................................................................................29 SKEP domain sub-regions................................................................................................ 30 IMPLICATIONS FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION ................................................................ 34 CHAPTER 3 LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION IN NAMAQUALAND: A COMPARISON OF STOCKING DENSITY ON PRIVATE AND COMMUNAL AREAS....................... 35 INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................... 35 METHODOLOGY..................................................................................................................... 37 Study site........................................................................................................................... 37 Data sources..................................................................................................................... 40 ii Livestock numbers and ownership ............................................................................................40 Rainfall: CCWR ........................................................................................................................40 NDVI.........................................................................................................................................40 Vegetation map..........................................................................................................................41 Mapping stocking rate ...............................................................................................................41 Analysis.....................................................................................................................................44 RESULTS................................................................................................................................ 44 Livestock production in communal areas......................................................................... 49 Livestock production on private farms............................................................................. 50 Current stocking rate in relation to rainfall, NDVI and vegetation type......................... 51 DISCUSSION........................................................................................................................... 53 Potential errors in the data .............................................................................................. 53 Animal numbers in communal areas and on private farms in Namaqualand.................. 53 IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS ............................................................................................ 56 CHAPTER 4 FUTURE PREDICTIONS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE SUCCULENT KAROO ECOSYSTEM PLAN PLANNING DOMAIN. ................................................... 57 MODELLING LAND USE CHANGES .......................................................................................... 57 Introduction...................................................................................................................... 57 Modelling techniques of land use change ........................................................................ 58 Spatial determinants of land use ...................................................................................... 62 Land use and future predictions....................................................................................... 62 Limitations of modelling land use change: the issue of scale .......................................... 63 CASE STUDY: LAND USE MODELLING IN THE SUCCULENT KAROO ECOSYSTEM PLAN (SKEP) PLANNING DOMAIN................................................................................................................ 64 Introduction...................................................................................................................... 64 Methodology.....................................................................................................................66 Sources of data .................................................................................................................66 Computing Center for Water Research (CCWR)......................................................................66 Environmental Potential Atlas of South Africa (ENPAT) ........................................................66 Succulent Karoo Ecosystem Plan Planning domain (SKEP) ....................................................67 Environmental variables............................................................................................................69 Statistical approach....................................................................................................................72