NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll October 2015 New Hampshire Questionnaire Screener <Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older? Do you consider your permanent home address to be in New Hampshire? HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY GENDER GUESS October 2015: Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0%; February 2015: Registered voters: n=887, MOE +/- 3.3%; Residents: n=1013, MOE +/- 3.1% Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president? REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Approve 43 43 41 43 Disapprove 51 53 53 52 Unsure 7 5 6 5 Total 100 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Approve 42 42 41 43 Disapprove 51 52 52 50 Unsure 7 6 7 7 Total 100 100 100 100 October 2015: Registered independents n=451, MOE +/- 4.6%; September 2015: Registered independents n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July 2015: Registered independents n=395, MOE +/- 4.9% Now, thinking about the 2016 presidential primary in New Hampshire are you more likely to vote in the New Hampshire: REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Republican primary 37 36 39 Democratic primary 35 30 28 Wait to vote in the general election in November 26 33 30 Not planning to vote 2 1 2 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/ -4.6%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9; February 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=381, MOE +/- 5.0% If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Donald Trump 21 28 21 NA Carly Fiorina 16 6 2 NA Jeb Bush 11 8 14 18 Marco Rubio 10 3 5 6 Ben Carson 10 11 6 7 Chris Christie 7 5 6 13 John Kasich 6 12 7 NA Ted Cruz 6 5 5 6 Rand Paul 5 5 4 14 Mike Huckabee 1 2 3 7 George Pataki <1 <1 2 NA Lindsey Graham <1 1 <1 1 Rick Santorum <1 <1 <1 1 Bobby Jindal <1 1 <1 NA Jim Gilmore <1 <1 <1 NA Scott Walker NA 4 12 15 Rick Perry NA <1 <1 1 Undecided 6 8 13 13 Total 100 100 100 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 1 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=412, MOE +/- 4.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3% Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE Carly Fiorina 18 12 Ben Carson 15 16 Marco Rubio 11 9 Jeb Bush 10 10 Chris Christie 9 6 John Kasich 8 6 Donald Trump 8 9 Rand Paul 6 5 Ted Cruz 6 9 Mike Huckabee 3 3 Bobby Jindal 2 1 Lindsey Graham 1 <1 Rick Santorum 1 1 George Pataki <1 <1 Jim Gilmore <1 <1 Scott Walker NA 4 Rick Perry NA 2 Undecided 2 7 Total 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4% If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate): POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Bernie Sanders 48 49 34 Hillary Clinton 39 38 47 Lincoln Chafee 2 1 2 Martin O'Malley 2 1 5 Jim Webb 1 2 1 Undecided 9 8 11 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%; February 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=309, MOE +/- 5.6% If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and if Vice President Joe Biden enters the race): POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 February 2015 Bernie Sanders 42 41 32 13 Hillary Clinton 28 32 42 69 Joe Biden 18 16 12 8 Martin O'Malley 2 1 3 <1 Jim Webb 1 1 1 2 Lincoln Chafee 1 <1 2 NA Undecided 9 8 10 7 Total 100 100 100 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 2 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton? POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 73 69 71 Unfavorable 24 27 23 Unsure 3 4 7 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 36 36 37 Unfavorable 59 60 57 Unsure 5 5 6 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 36 36 37 Unfavorable 59 58 56 Unsure 6 6 7 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Joe Biden? POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 Favorable 78 76 Unfavorable 15 17 Unsure 7 7 Total 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 Favorable 48 46 Unfavorable 41 43 Unsure 11 12 Total 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 Favorable 47 44 Unfavorable 41 42 Unsure 13 14 Total 100 100 October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Bernie Sanders? POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 79 79 65 Unfavorable 10 9 14 Unsure 10 12 22 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 47 46 41 Unfavorable 37 33 29 Unsure 15 21 30 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 46 45 38 Unfavorable 35 31 29 Unsure 19 24 33 Total 100 100 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 3 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0 Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Jeb Bush? POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 58 49 56 Unfavorable 35 38 32 Unsure 7 13 12 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 38 34 40 Unfavorable 48 51 45 Unsure 14 14 15 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 36 31 38 Unfavorable 47 51 44 Unsure 17 17 18 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; Registered voters: n=966, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1121, MOE +/- 2.9%; July 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9%; Registered voters: n=910, MOE +/- 3.2%; Residents: n=1037, MOE +/- 3.0 Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Donald Trump? POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 47 56 39 Unfavorable 47 39 53 Unsure 6 5 8 Total 100 100 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 31 34 27 Unfavorable 64 59 67 Unsure 5 6 7 Total 100 100 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 September 2015 July 2015 Favorable 31 34 27 Unfavorable 63 58 65 Unsure 6 8 8 Total 100 100 100 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/- 4.6%; Registered voters: n=1044, MOE +/- 3.0%; Residents: n=1196, MOE +/- 2.8% Overall, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of Carly Fiorina? POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE October 2015 Favorable 68 Unfavorable 17 Unsure 15 Total 100 REGISTERED VOTERS October 2015 Favorable 43 Unfavorable 31 Unsure 26 Total 100 RESIDENTS October 2015 Favorable 40 Unfavorable 30 Unsure 30 Total 100 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 4 October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: