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Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. 2 3 This report was produced by a team led by Frederico Ferreira Pedroso (DRM Specialist, GPSURR), and comprising Rashmin Gunasekera (DRM Specialist, GPSURR), Oscar Ishizawa (Senior DRM Specialist, GPSURR), Fernanda Senra De Moura (DRFI Consultant, GPSURR), Rafael Schadeck (DRM Consultant, GPSURR), Roque Alberto Acknowledgements Sánchez Dalotto (GIS Specialist Consultant, GPSURR), Mario Saraiva (Consultant, GPSURR), Antonios Pomonis (DRFI Consultant, GPSURR), Maria Gaspari (DRFI Consultant, GPSURR), and Ambiental Technical Solutions Ltd. (Flood Modeling Consultancy). Niels Holm-Nielsen (Lead DRM Specialist, GPSURR) provided special guidance and comments that were crucial to the preparation of this study. The report greatly benefited from data and information provided by the State of Santa Catarina through the Secretary of Sustainable Economic Development (SDS) and its Department of Climate Change Adaptation. The team is thankful to the peer reviewers Joaquin Toro, Thadeu Abicalil and Josef Leitmann. The team gratefully acknowledges the funding from the Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries under the manage- ment of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Santa Catarina: Disaster Risk Profiling for Improved Natural Hazards Resilience Planning Resilience Hazards Natural Improved for Profiling Risk Disaster Catarina: Santa ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 4 5 Acknowledgements 4 Abbreviations and Acronyms 8 Contents Executive Summary 10 Part I: INFORMED DRM PLANNING IN SANTA CATARINA 12 1. Historical Patterns of Natural Hazards in Santa Catarina 14 1.1 Recovering State-level Disaster Damage and Losses 14 1.2 Financial Disaster Response Capacity in the Recent Past 17 2. Knowledge Base for DRM Planning in Santa Catarina 21 2.1 Flood Hazard Modeling and Potential Policy Applications 22 2.2 Exposure and Vulnerability Models 27 2.3 CAT Model and Potential Policy Applications 35 Santa Catarina: Disaster Risk Profiling for Improved Natural Hazards Resilience Planning Resilience Hazards Natural Improved for Profiling Risk Disaster Catarina: Santa Part II: SANTA CATARINA DISASTER RISK PROFILE – POLICY AND DECISION-MAKING IMPLICATIONS 44 1. Potential Santa Catarina State Planning Implications 45 CONTENTS REFERENCES 48 Annex 1: VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 50 6 7 AAL Annual Average Loss AEP Aggregate Exceedance Probability AMAX Annual Daily Maximum BUC Basic Unit Cost CAT Catastrophe DRM Disaster Risk Management DSM Digital Surface Model Abbreviations Acronyms and DTM Digital Terrain Model EP Exceedance Probability IBGE Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística) MDR Mean Damage Ratio OEP Occurrence Exceedance Probability Santa Catarina: Disaster Risk Profiling for Improved Natural Hazards Resilience Planning Resilience Hazards Natural Improved for Profiling Risk Disaster Catarina: Santa ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 8 9 This report seeks to further the body of disaster risk management (DRM) knowledge in Santa Catarina by identifying flood asset exposure risks and consequently empower the state government and its institutions to include DRM practices and information in their daily operations and decision-making processes, respectively. In this context, a novel Executive Summary Executive study was jointly designed and developed by the World Bank and Santa Catarina’s state government with the ultimate aim to produce a state-level Catastrophe (CAT) model. Following a well-established methodological process, the team has endeavored a number of activities that led to a successful and comprehensive CAT modeling as follows: • A robust set of geo-spatial information plans were generated using national- and state-level databases, which were compiled in a single information technol- ogy application. • Residential and nonresidential models were developed to allow both the esti- mation of building asset values and vulnerability to flooding events. • A statewide flood model for different return periods was produced using avail- able hydro-meteorological historical information and digital terrain and surface models. Climate scenarios were not considered as common assumptions used to Santa Catarina: Disaster Risk Profiling for Improved Natural Hazards Resilience Planning Resilience Hazards Natural Improved for Profiling Risk Disaster Catarina: Santa define those would imply in a rather imprecise mathematical modelling attempt in the specific context of the CAT Model. • A CAT model was derived using exposure, vulnerability, and flood models to EXECUTIVE produce general metrics (for example, Aggregate Exceedance Probability [AEP], Occurrence Exceedance Probability [OEP], Exceedance Probability [EP], and SUMMARY Annual Average Loss [AAL]) to improve the state’s understanding of its asset and financial exposure to natural hazards. The novelty and depth of the study allowed the team to draw a number of potential policy implications and possible decision making to improve the state’s resilience to natural disas- ters. To the best of the team’s knowledge, this is a first-of-its-kind study in Brazil and has po- tential direct applications to a wide body of professions and institutions in Santa Catarina. Finally, the proposed methodological approach was heavily based on the national census as well as on commonly accessible hydro-meteorological data and topographic information to ensure replicability in other Brazilian states or municipalities. 10 11 PART SANTA CATARINA FLOOD MAP - 1 IN 100 YEARS RETURN PERIOD Flood maps can be used in combination with georeferenced datasets of assets of different 01 types, like road networks, production plants, public infrastructure, real estate and so on. As such, State or national institutions can benefit from the information provided in order to prioritize areas for DRM interventions and investment across the state or to promote private developments in safe zones, for example. PART INFORMED I: DRM PLANNING IN SANTA CATARINA Santa Catarina: Disaster Risk Profiling for Improved Natural Hazards Resilience Planning Resilience Hazards Natural Improved for Profiling Risk Disaster Catarina: Santa Depth (meters) +1 0,8 - 1 INFORMED DRM 0,6 - 0,8 0,4 - 0,6 0,2 - 0,4 PLANNING IN SANTA 0- 0,2 CATARINA area 95.734 km2 Population 6.248.436* rural 16% 1.000.523 urban 84% 5.247.913 “Disaster Events are the materialization of Natural Hazards Risks, which ultimately generate economic loses and social impacts” Omar Cardona - Sasakawa Award Winner 12 13 1. HISTORICAL PATTERNS OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN SANTA CATARINA 2011 the state was flooded, when 6 people died, 489,703 people were affected, 43,066 houses were damaged, and R$112 million of public losses were registered (CEPED UFSC 2016). Between 1980 and 2011, there have been 11 major episodes of flooding (Garcia et. al. 2011), and the recent flood events in 2014 (Smithsonian 2014) and 2015 (Floodlist 2015), suggest that flooding is a persistent and relevant hazard in the state. 1.1 RECOVERING STATE-LEVEL DISASTER DAMAGE AND LOssES Taking into consideration only flooding events between 1995 and 2014, property dam- The state of Santa Catarina, in Southern Brazil, covers an area of 95,346 km2 and con- ages and losses are the most significant, representing about 53 percent in monetary terms tains a population in excess of 6 million. The state is affected by a great diversity of nat- and 43 percent of registered events as illustrated in figure 1.1 ural adverse events: droughts, floods, flash floods, hail, mass movements, windstorms, tornadoes, and coastal erosions. The state was also affected by Hurricane Catarina, the PART INFORMED I: DRM PLANNING IN SANTA CATARINA only hurricane recorded in Brazil so far. FIGURE 1. FLOODING IMPACTS IN COMPARISON TO OTHER DISASTER EVENTS IN THE RECENT HISTORY OF SANTA CATARINA2 Floods and droughts are the most common events and most floods occur during the Records Damage and losses house damage units summer (December