Accessing ASEAN Markets Geoff Howie Markets Strategist, Singapore Exchange 11May 2013 Investment Choices . Private Investment share of GDP to moderately rise (+1.1%), while private savings rate to moderately fall (-1.8%) over next 5 years according to annual IMF Country Report*. Real Estate or Stocks? – Over a ten year period ending March 2013, the average annualised return of the Urban Redevelopment Authority Property Price Index by residential type amounts to +6.4%. – Over the same timeframe the average annualised return of the STI was +10.4% not including dividend distributions. IMF Article IV Report – Singapore July 2012 SGX The Asian Gateway 1 ASEAN Market Highlights . In the April 2013 IMF World Economic Outlook, GDP growth of ASEAN-5 was revised upwards versus downward revisions for United States, Europe, China and India. Alongside listing a number of stocks and trusts that generate a large percentage of their revenue in ASEAN neighboring states, SGX offer a number of ETFs that provide exposure to the performance of ASEAN equity indices. While the majority of the ETFs are US Dollar denominated, the majority of the stock offerings are denominated in the Singapore Dollar (SGD). Furthermore, the strong external position of reserves at 100% of GDP means Singapore is one of three countries in the world outside Europe & UK to maintain the highest sovereign rate by Fitch, S&P and Moody’s. Coinciding with increased physical trade flows between ASEAN and China, the largest IPO in Asia in the 2013 YTD has been a REIT which holds assets in Greater China and is managed by a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments. SGX The Asian Gateway 2 ASEAN Growth Global Context SGX The Asian Gateway 3 IMF 2013 Global Growth Forecast +3.3% . International Monetary Fund - World Economic Outlook, April 2013, ‘Hopes, Realities, Risks’ . World Output downwardly revised by 0.2%, 2012 Level was 3.2%, Forecast for 2014 is 4.0%. SGX The Asian Gateway 4 IMF 2013: 1.2% Advanced World Growth Forecast +1.9% -0.3% Unemployment Rate 7.5% Unemployment Rate 12.1% Quantitative Easing Outright Monetary Transactions . US and Europe both downwardly revised by 0.2% in April. US growth was 2.2% in 2012, Europe was -0.6%, forward estimate is 3.0% and 1.1% for US and Europe respectively. SGX The Asian Gateway 5 IMF 2013: 7.1% forecast for Developing Asia Growth The 2015 ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) with the freer flow of capital objective is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world. +8.0% Combined ASEAN GDP & Average Inflation (1998 – 2016E) G Nominal Average Inflation Rate InflationAverage +5.7% 30.0 3.5 25.0 3.0 DP 2.5 20.0 ($US Trillion 2.0 15.0 Estimates 1.5 +5.9% 10.0 1.0 ) 5.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 . ASEAN-5 2013 Growth update was revised Upward by 0.3%, China was revised Average Inflation rate, average consumer prices (Annual percent change) down 0.1% and India was revised downwards by 0.2%. In 2012, China growth was 7.8%, India was 4.0% and ASEAN-5 was 5.1%. Nominal GDP (Trillions of U.S. dollars) SGX The Asian Gateway 6 Common ASEAN growth drivers . Strong domestic demand and consumer confidence . Investment and Infrastructure requirements . Growing wages and rising middle class . Further subsidization reforms +5.9% . Low Inflation and accommodative Monetary Policy Nominal 35 30 25 GDP ($US Trillion) ($US GDP 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 United States Asia and Pacific Europe Developing Asia SGX The Asian Gateway 7 ETF Application SGX The Asian Gateway 8 An original ASEAN asset . CIMB FTSE ASEAN 40 ETF is a non-SIP ETF that adopts a full replication strategy, that is the fund holds the physical underlying stocks. Gained 18.2% in 2012, with a five year annualised return of 11.5% as of 28 March 2013. The ETF was established as an ASEAN government initiative to position ASEAN markets as a regional asset class in Sep 2006. This Index represents 40 of the largest stocks listed across Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines. Of the 40 stocks that are held by the ETF, there are 19 different sectors as represented as categorised by the ICB. SGX The Asian Gateway 9 Banks-heavy FTSE ASEAN 40 Index . Banks make up the largest Supersector of the FTSE ASEAN 40 Index, accounting for 12 constituents and 41.4% of the Index weighting as of April 30, 2013. Singapore's three locally-listed banks - DBS Group Holdings, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and United Overseas Bank - accounted for half of Singapore's 11 stock - 36% weighting in the FTSE ASEAN 40 Index as of April 30. Num 5Y YTD Total 1Y Total 5Y p.a. Div FTSE Index as of 30 April 2013 of 1Y Vol Total Retn Retn % Retn % Vol Yield Cons % FTSE Asian Banks Index 30 5.9 17.3 14.4 11.3 29.9 3.5 FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS - Banks 9 4.4 17.1 6.9 90 17.9 3.6 FTSE ST Banks Index 3 11.4 21.6 12.1 30.6 27.9 3.1 FTSE SET Banks Index 10 12.9 30.2 18.9 137.3 29 2.4 SGX The Asian Gateway 10 12 of 40 stocks listed on Singapore Exchange Name Local Exchange ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m) Exchange Location Symbol SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD Z74 Singapore Mobile Telecommunications 61,861 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD D05 Singapore Banks 42,465 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP O39 Singapore Banks 37,148 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD U11 Singapore Banks 34,304 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD F34 Singapore Food Producers 21,172 KEPPEL CORP LTD BN4 Singapore Oil Equip, Services & Distribution 19,149 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC G13 Singapore Travel & Leisure 18,092 JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LTD C07 Singapore General Retailers 17,163 CAPITALAND LTD C31 Singapore Real Estate Investment & Services 15,582 SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING S63 Singapore Aerospace & Defense 13,682 SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD C6L Singapore Travel & Leisure 12,920 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD C09 Singapore Real Estate Investment & Services 10,284 SGX The Asian Gateway 11 11 of 40 stocks listed on Bursa Malaysia Name Local Exchange ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m) Exchange Location Symbol MALAYAN BANKING BHD 1155 Kuala Lumpur Banks 32,870 AXIATA GROUP BERHAD 6888 Kuala Lumpur Mobile Telecommunications 23,112 PUBLIC BANK BERHAD 1295 Kuala Lumpur Banks 23,102 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD 1023 Kuala Lumpur Banks 23,070 SIME DARBY BERHAD 4197 Kuala Lumpur General Industrials 22,816 PETRONAS CHEMICALS GROUP BHD 5183 Kuala Lumpur Chemicals 20,851 MAXIS BHD 6012 Kuala Lumpur Mobile Telecommunications 20,393 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD 5347 Kuala Lumpur Electricity 17,664 PETRONAS GAS BHD 6033 Kuala Lumpur Oil & Gas Producers 15,634 IOI CORPORATION BHD 1961 Kuala Lumpur Food Producers 12,814 GENTING MALAYSIA BHD 4715 Kuala Lumpur Travel & Leisure 8,412 SGX The Asian Gateway 12 Nine of 40 stocks listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange Name Local Exchange ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m) Exchange Location Symbol ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK PT ASII Indonesia Automobiles & Parts 36,932 BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PT BBCA Indonesia Banks 33,582 TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA PER TLKM Indonesia Fixed Line Telco 29,886 BANK MANDIRI PERSERO TBK PT BMRI Indonesia Banks 29,416 BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA PERSER BBRI Indonesia Banks 28,912 UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK PT UNVR Indonesia Personal Goods 24,604 PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA PERSER PGAS Indonesia Gas, Water & Multiutilities 18,890 GUDANG GARAM TBK PT GGRM Indonesia Tobacco 12,482 UNITED TRACTORS TBK PT UNTR Indonesia Industrial Engineering 8,484 SGX The Asian Gateway 13 Six of 40 stocks listed on Stock Exchange of Thailand Name Local Exchange ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m) Exchange Location Symbol ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PCL ADVANC Bangkok Mobile Telecommunications 33,149 SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PUB CO SCB Bangkok Banks 26,290 PTT EXPLOR & PROD PUBLIC CO PTTEP Bangkok Oil & Gas Producers 25,697 SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO LTD SCC Bangkok Construction & Materials 24,354 KASIKORNBANK PCL KBANK Bangkok Banks 21,088 BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO LTD BBL Bangkok Banks 17,696 SGX The Asian Gateway 14 Two of 40 stocks listed on Stock Exchange of Thailand Name Local Exchange ICB Sector Name Mkt Cap (S$m) Exchange Location Symbol SM INVESTMENTS CORP SM Philippines General Retailers 22,320 PHILIPPINE LONG DISTANCE TEL TEL Philippines Mobile Telecommunications 20,357 SGX The Asian Gateway 15 Core Satellite Strategy . Portfolio Managers that wish to combine the benefits of a passive portfolio with their expertise or experience in specific sectors or market genre can adopt the Core Satellite strategy. Core Satellite Portfolio Management is comprised of: – a core portfolio, generally in the form of a passive investment that provides a comparable performance to an investment benchmark such as a stock market index or commodity price. – a satellite portfolio, generally in the form of active investments in stocks and securities that provide portfolio alpha. – in this context investment alpha refers to the return of these active investments, adjusted for their associated trading risks. SGX The Asian Gateway 16 Two Year Raw Beta of FTSE ASEAN 40 Constituents MAXIS BHD 0.40 ADVANCED INFO SERVICE-NVDR 0.43 TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA PER 0.49 PUBLIC BANK BHD-FOREIGN MKT 0.56 UNILEVER INDONESIA TBK PT 0.57 SINGAPORE TELECOM LTD 0.57 SINGAPORE TECH ENGINEERING 0.65 SIME DARBY BERHAD 0.81 MALAYAN BANKING BHD 0.85 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD 0.86 PETRONAS GAS BHD 0.86 BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK PT 0.93 SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD 0.95 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORP 0.96 PTT EXPLOR & PROD PCL-NVDR 1.00 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LTD 1.03 AXIATA GROUP BERHAD 1.03 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD 1.04 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD 1.04 DIGI.COM BHD 1.06 IOI CORPORATION BHD 1.11 PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA PERSER 1.12 KASIKORNBANK PCL-NVDR 1.15 SIAM CEMENT PCL-NVDR 1.16 PHILIPPINE LONG DISTANCE TEL 1.18 BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC CO-NVDR 1.18 PTT PCL-NVDR 1.23 SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK P-NVDR 1.25 ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK PT 1.31 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC 1.32 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD 1.33 CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD 1.36 BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA PERSER 1.40 KEPPEL CORP LTD 1.41 MISC BHD 1.42 CAPITALAND LTD 1.52 BANK MANDIRI PERSERO TBK PT 1.52 GENTING BHD 1.53 NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.94 Source: Bloomberg Jan 2013 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 SGX The Asian Gateway 17 Most liquid ASEAN ETFs after STI ETF in 2012 .