2020 Cheshire and Warrington Labour Market Assessment FINAL BRENNAN WILSON LTD Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................... 4 2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................. 5 2.1 The Cheshire and Warrington Context .............................................................................. 5 2.2 Skills Demand .................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Skills Supply ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.4 Supply and Demand .......................................................................................................... 8 2.5 Skills Strengths and Issues ................................................................................................. 9 2.6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 10 3. ANALYSIS AND DEFINITION OF THE LOCAL LANDSCAPE .......................................................... 11 3.1 Population ....................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 Employment, unemployment, and benefits .................................................................... 14 3.3 Jobs, GVA and business stock .......................................................................................... 22 3.4 Industrial structure .......................................................................................................... 26 3.5 Occupational Structure .................................................................................................... 29 3.6 Earnings and Income ....................................................................................................... 31 3.7 Deprivation...................................................................................................................... 34 3.7.1 Geographic Barriers to Services ............................................................................... 36 3.8 The Delivery of Learning and Skills to Residents of Cheshire and Warrington ................. 37 4. ANALYSIS OF SKILLS DEMAND ................................................................................................. 39 4.1 The Impact of Covid-19 .................................................................................................... 39 4.1.1 Redundancies to date .............................................................................................. 39 4.1.2 Places and sectors at risk of future redundancies .................................................... 40 4.1.3 The impact on the demand for labour and the local economy................................. 42 4.1.4 The impact on apprenticeships ................................................................................ 45 4.2 Economic Development Priorities ................................................................................... 46 4.2.1 Levelling Up ............................................................................................................. 46 4.2.2 Digital Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 46 4.2.3 Decarbonisation and Nuclear ................................................................................... 47 4.2.4 Life Sciences ............................................................................................................. 47 4.3 Current Employer Demand for Labour ............................................................................. 47 4.3.1 Employer Demand for Labour – Managers Directors and Senior Officials ................ 47 4.3.2 Employer Demand for Labour – Professional Occupations ...................................... 48 4.3.3 Employer Demand for Labour - Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 49 4.3.4 Employer Demand for Labour - Administrative and Secretarial Occupations .......... 50 4.3.5 Employer Demand for Labour - Skilled Trades Occupations..................................... 51 1 | P a g e 4.3.6 Employer Demand for Labour - Caring, Leisure and Other Service Occupations ...... 52 4.3.7 Employer Demand for Labour - Sales and Customer Service Occupations ............... 53 4.3.8 Employer Demand for Labour - Process, Plant and Machine Operatives ................. 53 4.3.9 Employer Demand for Labour - Elementary Occupations ........................................ 54 4.4 Current Sector Earnings ................................................................................................... 54 4.5 Skills Sought by Employers .............................................................................................. 56 4.6 Future Demand for Labour .............................................................................................. 59 4.7 Automation ..................................................................................................................... 67 5. SKILLS SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................... 69 5.1 Young People in Cheshire and Warrington ........................................................................ 69 5.1.1 Young People – Population, Deprivation, and Participation in Employment and Education................................................................................................................................. 69 5.1.2 Young People’s Education and Progression................................................................ 72 5.1.3 Young People and the Labour Market ....................................................................... 77 5.2 The Supply of Skills to Young People ................................................................................. 78 5.2.1 Young People aged 16-18 Participation in Learning - Overview .................................. 78 5.2.2 Young People aged 16-18 Participation in Learning at Level 2 .................................... 79 5.2.3 Young People aged 16-18 Participation in Learning at Level 3 .................................... 81 5.3 Adult Skills in Cheshire and Warrington .......................................................................... 82 5.4 The Supply of Skills to Adults ........................................................................................... 83 5.4.1 Adult Further Education Participation and Achievement Overview ......................... 83 5.4.2 Adult Apprenticeships Participation and Achievement Overview ........................... 86 5.4.3 Destinations of Adult Learners................................................................................. 88 5.4.4 Adult Basic Skills ...................................................................................................... 89 5.4.5 Adult Level 2 Skills ................................................................................................... 89 5.4.6 Adult Level 3 Skills ................................................................................................... 90 5.4.7 Adult Level 4+ Skills ................................................................................................. 92 5.5 Employer Training ........................................................................................................... 95 6 SUPPLY AND DEMAND .......................................................................................................... 103 6.1 Skills gaps and skill shortage vacancies ......................................................................... 103 6.1.1 Skills Gaps .............................................................................................................. 103 6.1.2 Skills Shortage Vacancies ....................................................................................... 108 6.2 Spatial alignment of skills supply with community demand .......................................... 116 6.2.1 Alignment of FE Delivery with need and deprived areas........................................ 116 6.2.2 Apprenticeships and pay progression .................................................................... 118 6.2.3 FE Level 2 attainment in areas of employment deprivation ................................... 119 2 | P a g e 6.2.4 The demand for English and Maths ....................................................................... 120 6.3 Future Demand for Skills ................................................................................................. 120 7. CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................................... 123 3 | P a g e 1. INTRODUCTION The data that informs analysis of the labour market will always have been collected prior to the analysis taking place. Either labour market reporting provides a description of what has happened in the past, or it gives a description of a possible future based on what has happened in the past. At any time, it is important to understand this about labour market intelligence. This understanding is particularly pertinent at a time like this. The shock that Covid-19 is bringing to our economy is such that the only thing that can be said with any certainty is that