Three Essays on Domestic Violence Related Firearms Regulations in the United States by Sierra Smucker Public Policy Studies Duke University Date:________________________ Approved: _______________________________ Kristin Goss, Supervisor _______________________________ Philip Cook _______________________________ Deondra Rose _______________________________ Kathryn (Beth) Moracco Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy Studies in the Graduate School of Duke University 2018 ABSTRACT Three Essays on Domestic Violence Related Firearms Regulations in the United States by Sierra Smucker Public Policy Studies Duke University Date:________________________ Approved: _______________________________ Kristin Goss, Supervisor _______________________________ Philip Cook _______________________________ Deondra Rose _______________________________ Kathryn (Beth) Moracco An abstract of a dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy Studies in the Graduate School of Duke University 2018 Copyright by Sierra Smucker 2018 Abstract Firearms regulation rarely passes in the United States due to the strength of the gun rights lobby. However, in the past several years, policymakers in traditionally pro-gun states have passed laws that restrict domestic abusers’ access to firearms. The success of these policies suggests that domestic violence related firearms regulations may represent a rare opportunity for bipartisan agreement in this contentious policy area. This dissertation examines domestic violence related firearms regulations from three angles. The first chapter presents a qualitative comparative case study analysis of domestic violence related firearms legislation to understand how these policies overcame robust barriers to passage. The results demonstrate that the prominence of domestic violence prevention advocates and “strategic absence” of larger gun control groups in the policy process increased the probability of the legislation’s passage. The second chapter leverages an original survey experiment involving 1,000 participants in the Cooperative Congressional Election Survey (CCES) to test whether framing gun regulation as domestic violence prevention instead of gun control can increase support for the legislation. While I find limited evidence that framing impacts respondents’ support for a new law, women are significantly more likely to support the policy than men. Importantly, this result remains significant after controlling for political party, suggesting that women’s collective action could bring about bipartisan cooperation on some gun regulations. The third and final chapter demonstrates the importance of preemptive gun regulations for reducing intimate partner homicide through an analysis of homicide data from the North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System. Together, this collection of studies sheds light on the politics and design of domestic violence related firearms regulation and creates a foundation for future research in this important policy area. iv Dedication To the women whose stories I heard while writing and to those whose stories may never be told. I promise to use the time I have to fight against the forces that stole yours. And to my mom, who gave me my time and all of hers. v Table of Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ iv List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... vi Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. vii Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 1: (Strategically) Absent Advocates: How Domestic Violence Related Firearms Policies Passed in Pro-Gun States, 2013-2015 .............................................. 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 3 Defining Domestic Violence Related Firearms Policies ............................................... 5 Research Questions, Data, and Methods ....................................................................... 8 The Proposal of Domestic Violence Related Firearms Policies After Sandy Hook................................................................................................................... 9 Policy Pathways using the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) ............................... 12 Pathways to Success: Five Domestic Violence Related Firearms Policies in Pro-Gun States .......................................................................................... 15 Summary ............................................................................................................. 25 The Relationship Between Advocacy Coalition and Gun Control Policy .......................................................................................................................... 26 Antagonizing the Opposition: Gun Control Versus Gun Rights ......................... 27 Mollifying the Opposition: The Strategic Absence of Gun Control Groups .................................................................................................... 30 A Divergent Case: Colorado ............................................................................... 34 Summary ............................................................................................................. 34 Policy Entrepreneurs, Problem Definition, and Coalition Building ........................... 35 Domestic Violence as a Central Problem............................................................ 37 Gun Violence as a Central Problem .................................................................... 39 Summary ............................................................................................................. 41 Why Coalitions Stay Apart ......................................................................................... 42 iv Summary ............................................................................................................. 45 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 45 Theoretical Contributions and Future Research .................................................. 46 Policy Implications ............................................................................................. 48 Chapter 2: Partisanship Disarmed: Can Framing Help Diffuse the Partisan Debate Over Guns? .................................................................................................................. 50 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 50 Partisanship, Policy Preferences, and Framing ........................................................... 52 Research Design ......................................................................................................... 57 Survey Experiment .............................................................................................. 57 Sample ................................................................................................................. 59 Variables ............................................................................................................. 62 Analytic Strategy................................................................................................. 64 Results ......................................................................................................................... 65 Descriptive Statistics ........................................................................................... 65 Subgroup Analysis .............................................................................................. 67 Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) Regression ......................................................... 69 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 73 An Important Non-Finding ......................................................................................... 77 Chapter 3: Suicide and Additional Homicides Associated with Intimate Partner Homicide: North Carolina 2004-2013, with co-authors Philip J. Cook and Rose Kerber ....................................................................................................................... 80 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 80 Methods ...................................................................................................................... 82 Results ......................................................................................................................... 84 Discussion ................................................................................................................... 87 Public Health Implications .........................................................................................