COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Fulton and DeKalb Counties, Georgia U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Policy Development and Research | As of August 1, 2018 Bartow Cherokee Forsyth Hall Housing Market Area The Fulton and DeKalb Counties Housing Market Area (HMA) is part of the 29-county Atlanta- Gwinnett Sandy Springs-Roswell Metropolitan Statistical Paulding Cobb Area (hereafter, Atlanta MSA). The HMA, which includes the city of Atlanta, is centrally located within the MSA and is an international hub for logistics, DeKalb education, health care, and trade. Douglas Fulton Carroll Rockdale Clayton Henry Coweta Fayette Summary Economy percent. By comparison, nonfarm from 4.6 percent in April 2010. payrolls in the nation expanded by During the 3-year forecast period, conomic conditions in 1.6 percent during the 12 months demand is estimated for 14,100 the Fulton and DeKalb ending July 2018. During the new homes, accounting for 19 ECounties HMA are 3-year forecast period, nonfarm percent of total demand in the currently strong. Job growth payrolls in the MSA are expected Atlanta MSA (Table 1). Demand slowed during the most recent to increase an average of 1.8 is expected to be relatively stable 12 months but has exceeded the percent a year, partly supported by in the HMA during the period. national rate since 2011. During economic expansions in the HMA. The 3,475 homes currently under the 12 months ending July 2018, construction will satisfy some of nonfarm payrolls in the MSA Sales Market the forecast demand. increased by 51,200 jobs, or 1.9 The sales market in the HMA is currently balanced with reduced Rental Market Market Details levels of home construction The rental housing market in the and increased net in-migration HMA is currently balanced with contributing to the absorption of an estimated vacancy rate of 6.0 Economic Conditions ........................2 excess inventory since the early percent, down from 13.4 percent in Population and Households ...........6 2010s. As of August 1, 2018, the April 2010. Strong growth in renter Housing Market Trends ....................8 overall sales vacancy rate was households has generally outpaced Data Profiles ......................................15 estimated at 2.1 percent, down construction of rental units and the Summary continued 2 conversion of sales units to rental MSA (Table 1). The 13,150 rental use since 2010. During the next units currently under construction 3 years, demand in the HMA is and the 4,025 additional units expected for 19,450 new market- expected to be completed during rate rental units, representing 64 the next 2 years will satisfy most percent of demand in the Atlanta of the demand. Table 1. Housing Demand in the Atlanta MSA* and Fulton and DeKalb Counties HMA During the Forecast Period Fulton and DeKalb Atlanta MSA* Counties HMA Sales Units Rental Units Sales Units Rental Units Total demand 74,150 30,350 14,100 19,450 Under construction 14,175 15,950 3,475 13,150 *Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Metropolitan Statistical Area Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of August 1, 2018. The forecast period is August 1, 2018, to August 1, 2021. Source: Estimates by analyst Economic Conditions he Fulton and DeKalb period of economic expansion Counties HMA is the after averaging 43 percent in Tprimary economic 2009. Job growth in the MSA core of the Atlanta MSA. The slowed during the most recent 12 HMA currently accounts for months, but economic conditions COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS COMPREHENSIVE approximately 46 percent of remain strong with the rate of • all jobs in the MSA, a figure growth exceeding the national which has generally trended rate since 2011. During the 12 upwards during the current months ending July 2018, nonfarm payrolls in the MSA averaged Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the Atlanta MSA*, by Sector 2.75 million jobs, an increase of 51,200 jobs, or 1.9 percent, from 12 Months Ending Absolute Percent the previous 12 months (Table July 2017 July 2018 Change Change 2). That rate of job growth was Total nonfarm payroll jobs 2,701,700 2,752,900 51,200 1.9 down from an increase of 71,900 Goods-producing sectors 286,600 295,400 8,800 3.1 jobs, or 2.7 percent, during the Mining, logging, and construction 120,800 126,900 6,100 5.0 Manufacturing 165,800 168,500 2,700 1.6 12 months ending July 2017, but Fulton and DeKalb Counties, GA Fulton and DeKalb Counties, Service-providing sectors 2,415,100 2,457,500 42,400 1.8 was higher than the 1.6-percent Wholesale and retail trade 449,400 454,900 5,500 1.2 rate for the nation. AT&T, Inc., Transportation and utilities 149,300 158,400 9,100 6.1 which moved several hundred jobs Information 97,800 95,500 – 2,300 – 2.4 from Atlanta to other locations Financial activities 169,000 170,100 1,100 0.7 within the nation in early 2018, Professional and business services 496,600 500,200 3,600 0.7 contributed to the slowed rate of Education and health services 337,600 348,100 10,500 3.1 growth during the most recent Leisure and hospitality 287,200 296,300 9,100 3.2 12 months, as the information Other services 98,700 99,800 1,100 1.1 sector declined by 2,300 jobs, or Government 329,500 334,300 4,800 1.5 2.4 percent. The education and *Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Metropolitan Statistical Area health services sector added the Notes: Based on 12-month averages through July 2017 and July 2018. Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. most jobs, expanding by 10,500 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs, or 3.1 percent, due in part Economic Conditions Continued 3 to the completion of a new 84- was 4.1 percent, down from 4.9 bed patient tower at Northside percent during the previous 12 Hospital Atlanta, which opened in months and less than one-half early 2018. of the recent high: 10.3 percent in 2010. The unemployment The economic downturn in the rate in the HMA, 4.3 percent, late 2000s affected the HMA was slightly higher than that of relatively severely, with nonfarm the MSA during the 12 months payrolls in the MSA declining ending July 2018 but was down by an average of 61,300 jobs, or from both the 5.1-percent rate 2.6 percent, a year from 2008 during the 12 months ending July through 2010, when nonfarm 2017 and the 10.6-percent rate payrolls in the nation declined by during 2010. By comparison, the an average of only 1.9 percent, unemployment rates for Georgia annually. From 2011 through and the nation were 4.2 and 3.9 2016, the MSA added an average percent, respectively, during the of 64,700 jobs, or 2.7 percent, a 12 months ending July 2018, year, as compared with average down from 5.1 and 4.4 percent, growth of only 1.7 percent a year respectively, during the previous for the nation. Due to the strong 12 months. During 2010, the job growth that began in 2011, the unemployment rates for Georgia number of nonfarm payrolls in and the nation were 10.5 and the MSA is currently 11.8 percent 10.4 percent, respectively. Figure greater than the prerecession high 1 shows trends in the labor force, of 2.46 million in 2007. The HMA resident employment, and the has accounted for approximately average unemployment rate in the 51 percent of the jobs added MSA from 2000 through 2017. in the MSA since 2011. The unemployment rates for both the The Atlanta MSA is an MSA and the HMA have declined international hub for logistics, COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS COMPREHENSIVE significantly since the early 2010s, education, health care, and trade. • and are generally comparable to The presence of Hartsfield- the rate for Georgia, but remain Jackson Atlanta International slightly higher than the rate Airport, the busiest airport in for the nation. During the 12 the world since 2000 (Airports months ending July 2018, the Council International), and unemployment rate in the MSA the educated MSA workforce, Figure 1. Trends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment Rate in the Atlanta MSA*, 2000 Through 2017 12.0 3,240,000 10.0 Fulton and DeKalb Counties, GA Fulton and DeKalb Counties, 3,040,000 2,840,000 8.0 ce and 2,640,000 6.0 2,440,000 4.0 Labor for resident employment 2,240,000 2.0 Unemployment rate 2,040,000 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Labor force Resident employment Unemployment rate *Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Metropolitan Statistical Area Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic Conditions Continued 4 including graduates from Emory industries—is currently the largest University, Georgia Institute of sector in the MSA. During the Technology, (Georgia Tech) and 12 months ending July 2018, the Georgia State University, make sector accounted for 500,200 jobs, the MSA an attractive location for or 18 percent of total nonfarm corporations. The headquarters payrolls in the MSA (Figure 2), of 28 Fortune 1,000 companies with approximately 53 percent of are located in the MSA, including the jobs in the sector in the HMA.