Russia 2017: three scenarios Russia 2017: three scenarios Editors: Osmo Kuusi Hanna Smith Paula Tiihonen ISBN 978-951-53-2949-3 (Printed) ISBN 978-951-53-2952-3 (PDF) Cover photo: Wäinö Aaltonen, Future, 1932/1969, Photographer Vesa Lindqvist Russia 2017 : three scenarios Parliament of Finland The Committee for the Future tel. +358 9 4321 fax +358 9 432 2140 tuv@parliament.fi www.parliament.fi /TuV Editors: Osmo Kuusi Hanna Smith Paula Tiihonen Printing Esa Print Oy Lahti ISBN 978-951-53-2958-5 (Printed) ISBN 978-951-53-2959-2 (PDF) Helsinki 2007 INDEX To the Reader ....................................................................................................................................................... 7 Foreword ............................................................................................................................................................... 8 A word from the editors .................................................................................................................................... 9 I RUSSIA SCENARIOS .........................................................................................................................10 1. Why is it important for Finns to ponder the future of Russia? .........................................................10 2. Russia’s major challenges on the basis of past developments and current conditions ..................10 Vast Russia ....................................................................................................................................................... 10 Justice ............................................................................................................................................................... 12 Population and health ..................................................................................................................................... 13 Education ......................................................................................................................................................... 14 Economy ........................................................................................................................................................... 16 Foreign policy and external relations ........................................................................................................... 20 Defence .............................................................................................................................................................. 23 3. Probable features of Russia’s future development ................................................................................. 23 Economic and population trends .................................................................................................................... 23 Priority National Projects advancing health, education, agriculture and housing ................................. 27 The political system and the fi eld of parties ................................................................................................. 28 Prospects for the armed forces ........................................................................................................................ 31 4. Possible developments of Russia ................................................................................................................ 32 Introduction to scenarios ................................................................................................................................ 32 Brief descriptions of scenarios ....................................................................................................................... 34 Scenario 1: INFLUENTAL GLOBAL PLAYER ....................................................................................... 37 Scenario 2: MOSAIC RUSSIA ....................................................................................................................... 40 Scenario 3: POWER ELITE’S RUSSIA ..................................................................................................... 42 II SOME CONCLUSIONS AND PROPOSALS FOR FINLAND ............................................45 Proposals examined by the Committee for the Future .................................................................................. 45 1. Finnish expertise in relation to Russia ...................................................................................................... 45 2. Cooperation to diversify the Russian export sector ............................................................................. 46 3. Ensuring the involvement of SMEs ............................................................................................................ 47 4. Participation in Russian health, education, agriculture and housing programmes ........................47 5. Adjacent Areas cooperation and the Northern Dimension ................................................................. 48 6. Extensive Russia policy programme ............................................................................................................ 49 III VIEWS ON RUSSIA POLICY AND RUSSIA ........................................................................50 1. General doctrines and operational models in policy on Russia (Paula Tiihonen) .........................50 100 years of shared history and 100 years as neighbours are the foundation for the next 100 years ......50 Formulating policy on Russia – are there lessons to be learned? .............................................................. 51 Final result: statecraft and statesmen ........................................................................................................... 57 2. Russia under the rule of law (Hanna Smith) ........................................................................................... 58 Democracy and the rule of law....................................................................................................................... 58 Russians and the law ...................................................................................................................................... 59 Council of Europe and Court of Human Rights .......................................................................................... 60 Freedom of speech in the media – the right to information ......................................................................... 61 Corruption ........................................................................................................................................................ 63 2008 a turning point? ..................................................................................................................................... 64 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................... 66 3 3. Russian foreign policy (Hanna Smith) ........................................................................................................ 67 Russia and the European Union .................................................................................................................... 69 What does Russia look for and want from the EU in the future? ...............................................................72 Russia and the United States ........................................................................................................................ 73 Russia and the other CIS countries ............................................................................................................... 73 Russia, China and India ................................................................................................................................. 74 Summary .......................................................................................................................................................... 75 4. Anti-Russianism and the shackles of history (Antero Eerola) ........................................................... 75 Russophobia as White Finland’s ideology .................................................................................................... 76 The AKS and the Brothers of Hate ................................................................................................................ 77 St. Petersburg for a better life ......................................................................................................................... 78 Russia through political glasses ..................................................................................................................... 79 Will Russia be exalted to the ranks of nations? ............................................................................................ 80 5. The future of Russia: certainties and uncertainties (Seppo Remes) ..................................................81 General assessment of scenarios .................................................................................................................... 81 Critical comments on the scenarios ................................................................................................................ 81 Final comment ................................................................................................................................................ 89 Annexes ...........................................................................................................................................................