Policy, Research, and External Affairs VVPS 4 9 2 WORKING PAPERS Transport Infrastructureand UrbanDevelopment Department The WorldBank Public Disclosure Authorized August1990 WPS 492 Automotive Air Pollution Issues and Options Public Disclosure Authorized for DevelopingCountries Asif Faiz KumaresSinha Michael Walsh Public Disclosure Authorized and Amiy Varma Automotiveair pollution will intensifywith increasing urban- ization and the rapid pace of motorizationin developingcoun- tries. Without effective measures to curb air pollution, some 300-400 million city dwellers in developing countries will become exposed to unhealthyand dangerouslevels of air pol- lution by the end of the century. Administrativelysimple Public Disclosure Authorized policies that encourage clean fuels and better traffic manage- ment are the most promising approachto controllingvehicle pollutantemissions in developingcountries. ThePolicy,Research, and ExternalAffairs Complex distsibuts PRE Working Papets to disseminatethe findingsof workin progress and to encounge the exchangeof idcasamong Bank staff and aUoLhers interested in developmcntissues. These papers carrythe namesof the authors,rteflect only their views, and shouldbe used and cited accordingly.The findings,interpretations, and conclusionsare the authors'own. They shouldnot be attributedto the WorldBank. its Boardof Directors,its management,or any of its membercountrtes. |Plcy, Research, and External Affairs Transport| WPS 492 This paperis theresultof an informal collaboration between the Bank's Transport Division, Infrastructure andUrban Development Department, and the Industry and Environment Office of the United Nations Environmental Program on transport-related environmental issues. It is part of a larger effort in PRE to address environmental concerns in the Bank's operational work. Copies are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. Please contact Pamela Cook, room S 10-063, extension 33462 (109 pages with tables). Automotive air pollution, once largely a problem of Appropriate response measures should be based developed countries, will spread to the developing on sound information and cost-effective programs. countries in the next decade because of the rapid pace They should be equitable in their impact on industry of urbanization and motorization there. and consumers and introduced with enough lead time to give enterprises and consumers time to adjust - to Rising incomes, combined with more desire for reduce widespread evasion and gain public accep- travel and personal mobility, will increase automobile tance. ownership and bus transport in Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and parts of Africa. The need for An emissions control policy should include an fast, reliable distribution of goods, the increasing pace emissions inventory to assess the relative contribution of containerization, and the selection of transport of motor vehicles to overall pollution; emission options on the basis of service rather than price alone standards based on a realistic evaluation of costs and will increase reliance on trucks for freight transporL expected compliance; identification of specific As motor vehicle ownership approaches saturation problems and appropriate countermeasures based on levels in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, their cost-effectiveness; design of a policy framework most growth will be in developing countries. to ensure success of control measures; an appropriate institutional set-up; and appropriate monitoring and Automotive air pollution will be worst in big evaluation. cities, particularly in Latin America and Asia - but also in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Although there is a consensus on the need to reduce lead in gasoline and sulfur in diesel fuels, The growth in road transport is unlikely to be knowledge of the cost and effectiveness of various curbed in developing countries. Possible actions and control measures is inadequate. More research is countermeasures to control automotive air pollution needed in the following areas: encompass energy efficient and environmentally clean vehicles, clean fuels, traffic management, and a * The characteristics and amount of automotive air policy framework including regulatory, pricing, and pollution in urban areas in developing countries. taxation measures. The most promising approach in developing countries, however, is through clean fuels, * The environmental characteristics of reformu- sound traffic management, and administratively lated and substitute transportation fuels. simple policy measures - such as a tax on leaded gasoline combined with a rebate on the use of ethers X The cost-effectiveness of various measures to as octane boosters. This could encourage refineries to control motor vehicle emissions. change their products and encourage users to substi- tute more appropriate vehicles. Owners of bus and * An evaluation of vehicle inspection and mainte- taxi fleets could be given incentives to run vehicles on nance prograrns. altemative fuels - such as LPG, GNG, or alcohol - and vehicle taxes and license fees could be designed * The environmental management of urban buses to discourage the ownership and use of polluting and paratransit vehicles. vehicles. 'Pe PRE WorkingPaper Series disseminatesthe fhdings of work under way in the Barn's Policy,ReseaTch, and Extemal Affairs Complex. Anobjective of theseries is to get thesefindings outquickly, evenifpresentations are less thanfullly polished. The fimdings, interpretations, and conclusions in Lhesepapers do not necessarily represent official Bank policy. Produced by the PRE Dissemination Center TABLE OF CONTENTS Acknowledgement vi Summary and Recommendations vii The Scale of the Problem in Developing Countries vii Health and Welfare Effects x Regional Priorities x Vehicle Emission Control Strategies xii Implementing Vehicle Emission Control Programs xv Research Priorities xvi Introduction I H. Air Pollution Characteristics 3 Types and Sources of Air Pollutants 3 Factors Affecting Emission and Concentration of Pollutants 4 Meteorological Factors 4 Topography and Urban Spatial Form 5 Emission Factors 7 Measurement and Assessment of Air Quality 7 Ambient Air Quality Standards 7 Trends in Emissions and Ambient Concentration of Pollutants 11 mII. The Role of Motor Vehicles in Air Pollution 14 HC, NOx, and CO in OECD Countries 14 HC, NOx, and CO in Developing Countries 14 India 15 Thailand 15 Indonesia 16 Philippines 16 Singapore 16 Mexico 16 i. IV. Adverse Impacts of Air Pollution 19 Health and Welfare Effects of Major Pollutants 19 Tropospheric Ozone (03) 19 Carbon Monoxide 20 Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx) 21 Lead 22 Other Toxics 22 Diesel Particulates 23 Aldehydes 23 Benzene 23 Non-Diesel Organics 24 Asbestos 24 Metals 24 Motor Vehicles and Global Warming 24 Carbon Monoxide 25 Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) 25 Carbon Dioxide (CO) 25 V. Factors Influencing Air Pollution from Land Transport Sources 27 Energy Consumption 27 Population and Urbanization 28 Mobility and Motorization 32 Motor Vehicle Registration 32 Urbanization, Economic Activity, and Motorization 33 Modal Share of Travel 34 Fuel Consumption and Emission Characteristics 40 Aggregate Emission Levels 44 VI. Motor Vehicle Emission Standards and Compliance Experience 51 Standards for Gasoline-Fueled Vehicles 51 Standards for Diesel-Fueled Vehicles 55 United States 55 Canada 56 Japan 56 European Community (EC) 56 Other Western European Countries 57 iii Compliance with Standards 57 Certification or Type Approval 58 Assembly Line Testing 58 Recall or Conformity of Production 58 Warranty 59 Inspection and Maintenance (I/M) 59 Onboard Diagnostics 59 Retrofit 60 Experience with Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs 60 International Status of I/M Programs 60 Emission Improvements and Fuel Economy 63 Impact on Tampering and Fuel Switching 63 Costs 64 VII. Vehicle Emission Control Technology 66 Gasoline-Fueled Vehicles 66 Combustion and Emissions 66 Engine Design Parameters 67 Air/Fuel Ratio and Mixture Preparation 67 Ignition Timing 67 Compression Ratio and Combustion Chambers 67 Emission Control Technologies 68 Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) 68 Electronics 69 Exhaust After-Treatment Devices 69 Lean Burn 70 Emission Control and Energy Conservation 71 Cost of Exhaust Emission Controls 71 Technological Advances on the Horizon 73 Diesel-Fueled Vehicles 75 Trap Oxidizer Operating Characteristics 75 Filter Material 76 Regeneration 77 Effect on Fuel Consumption and Costs 78 Evaporative Emissions 78 Two- and Three-Wheeled Vehicles 81 iv VIH. Alternative Fuels and Additives 82 Reformulated and Blend Fuels 82 Gasoline 82 Diesel 83 Alternative Fuels 85 Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) 85 Alcohol 86 Alternative Fuels and Global Warming 87 The Economics of Alternative Fuels 87 Factors Influencing Large Scale Use of Alternative Fuels 88 IX. Traffic Management and Policy Instruments 89 Urban Growth and Transport 89 Traffic Management 90 Auto Restrictions and Vehicle Free Zones 91 Economic Instruments and Other Policy Measures 93 X. Implementation Issues 96 Information Requirements 96 Economic Considerations 97 Costs and Effectiveness of Alternative Strategies 97 Institutional Arrangements 98 Jurisdictional Responsibilities 99 References 100 v List of Boxes 1. Meteorology and Concentration of Air Pollutants -- Some Examples 5 2. Effect of Topography and Urban Form on Air Pollution: The Examples of Mexico City and Bombay 6 3. Estimation of Pollutant Emissions from Automobiles and Buses in Selected Metropolitan