“A Glimpse into the Post-Petroleum Future” with Albert Bates White Dog Cafe This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License Philadelphia, October 8, 2007 If a path to the better there be, it begins with a look at the worst. — Robert Hardy (1840 - 1928) WORLD OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND: LOWER 48 PRODUCTION PATTERN & EXTRAPOLATED DEMAND GROWTH Peak Oil Extrapolated Demand - Growing World Economy 120 100 Shortage 80 PRODUCTION 60 (MM bpd) L 48 production Assumed: 40 pattern • Demand @ 2% 20 • Oil Decline @ 2% 0 • Peak @ 100 MM bpd -20 -10 0 +10 +20 (Not a prediction) YEARS BEFORE / AFTER OIL PEAK SAIC / MISI The USA gets its oil from: Canada Saudi Arabia Mexico Venezuela In 2001, PEMEX built the world’s largest nitrogen injection plant to increase reservoir pressure at Cantarell. Production doubled to nearly 2 million barrels a day, but last year went into precipitous, apparently terminal decline. It is currently declining at 14% per year, or half every 5 years Raúl Muñoz Leos, director general de Petróleos Mexicanos Jul 27 (Prensa Latina): Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years. Even if heavy investments were made now, new oil fields would take from six to eight years to be ready and, consequently, Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the internal market, it warned. Saudi Arabia Production Peak Oil Acknowledgement: The Oil Drum Canada and Venezuela Then Now Acknowledgement: Nate Hagens k? ea hen is the P W Peak Oil Peak The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is Peak Oil approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. —U.S. Department of Energy, March 2005 [F]ederal agencies currently have no coordinated Peak Oil or well-defined strategy either to reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or to mitigate its consequences. This lack of a strategy makes it difficult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk. — U.S. Govt Accountability Office, March 30, 2007 When you consider how much we depend on oil not only in Vegas, but in the whole country, the Peak Oil prospect of a decline and all its attendant catastrophes becomes clear. From pesticides used in industrial agriculture, to plastic sandwich bags used in suburban homes, to the IV tubes used in hospitals, the fulcrum of the entire U.S. economy is petroleum, and lots of it. Although we may not recognize it when peak oil finally dawns, the repercussions will be massive. — Las Vegas City Life September 27, 2007 Sweden will: Peak Oil . Ration energy to all industries . Convert entirely to biofuels and passive solar for space heating . Continue the CO2 tax introduced in 1991 . Increase the tax on energy use threefold by 2010 . Participate in the Kyoto trading regime . Continue retiring nuclear plants as wind power comes on line . Develop 10 TWhr of installed wind energy by 2015, well more than provided by the 8 remaining nukes World Oil Production 2002-2006 and 5-year Average Initial Symptoms of Peak Oil Awareness (Post Petroleum Stress Disorder) Common Symptoms Include; •Clammy Palms / Nausea •Mild Palpitations •A Sense of Bewilderment and Unreality •An Irrational Grasping at Unfeasible Solutions •Fear •Outbreaks of Nihilism / Survivalism. •Exuberant Optimism. •“I Always Told You So” Syndrome. Acknowledgment: Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air & ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change February 2007 Acknowledgment: Brock Dolman, Occidental Arts and Ecology TheThe FaFarmrm The Farm 19 IPCC-3 (2001) projected temperature rise scenarios vs. IPCC-4 (2006) observed 20°C 18°C You are here 17°C 16°C 1900 2000 2100 Source: Bates, Post-Petroleum Survival Guide (2006) Climate Change Source: Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit), Meteorology Building, University of Reading, UK The Hockey Stick Climate Change The Hockey Stick Climate Change Cox, Jones, Andreae conjecture. published in Nature The Hockey Stick 1. Introduction The new challenge of uncertainty Over just the last few years, One thing is clear: the era 1.1 major government, business and community leaders in the United of easy oil is over... [M]any States and Canada have been changing their expectations about the of the world’s oil and gas fields are maturing. And future of energy and the environment. new energy discoveries are Most credible observers now recognize that our global energy supply and our global cli- mainly occurring in places mate face radical change in the coming decades if we do not radically change the way our where resources are difficult industrialized economies consume energy. Global warming is widely accepted as a serious to extract, physically, problem needing immediate and far-reaching action. Peak oil—the coming decline of global economically, and even oil production—is not as widely understood, but presents a similarly complex set of politically. challenges. – From Chevron’s “Will You Join The problem posed by peak oil and global warming is ultimately one of uncertainty: both Us?” advertising campaign, phenomena are creating changes in economies and ecosystems at the global, regional and February 2006 even local levels that we cannot easily predict. For local governments—responsible for man- aging local public services and planning for future land use and transportation—this new ...[W]e have at most ten years uncertainty creates a wide variety of risks and vulnerabilities. How will local jobs be – not ten years to decide upon affected if the price of oil hits $100 a barrel? How will regional climate shifts affect the local water supply? Local governments need to understand and respond to these challenges. action, but ten years to alter This section will: fundamentally the trajectory of global greenhouse —introduce the issues of peak oil and global warming, emissions. —describe how these phenomena are creating uncertainty about our energy supplies and – James Hansen, Director, NASA climate, and Goddard Institute for Space Studies, —explain the urgency for local governments to address this pressing problem. “The Threat to the Planet,” New York Review of Books, 13 July 2006 www.postcarboncities.net Section 1.1 – Page 1 ABRIDGED VERSION :: TO ORDER FULL VERSION VISIT WWW.POSTCARBONCITIES.NET/GUIDEBOOK Is this the future? Philadelphia as protected by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers World Population 9 billion 6 billion 3 billion 1 billion Bacteria in bottle double every minute How much time? 2 minutes www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/645 www.hubbertpeak.com/bartlett/ The Batestrix Extreme Warming 5-15°C Stable Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy Slightly Warmer < 1°C Extreme Warming 5-15°C Stable Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy The Postman The Day After Tomorrow Slightly Warmer < 1°C Scenarios A Last One Standing - the way of WAR and COMPETITION B Waiting for the Magic Elixir - FALSE HOPES, WISHFUL THINKING and DENIAL C PowerDown - the path of SELF LIMITATION, COOPERATION & SHARING D Building Lifeboats - the path of COMMUNITY SOLIDARITY and PRESERVATION From ‘POWERDOWN’ Richard Heinberg - New Society Publishers, 2004 Extreme Warming 5-15°C Plan A Plan D Stable Plan B Plan C Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy Plan B Plan C Plan A Plan D Slightly Warmer < 1°C Plan A Business As Usual palm koran palm coastline Plan B Some Alternative (The Magic Bullet) “Sustainable Development” Al Gore Plug-in Prius LEEDS Triple Bottom Line Photovoltaics, Wind, Tidal, Biogas Hydrogen from Solar; Fuel Cells Amory Lovins William McDonough The Thurston Howard IIIs Plan C Cutback, Curtailment, Powerdown “Sustainable Retreat” - Lovelock “Conservor Community” - Murphy “Re-localization” - Darley Julian Darley “Voluntary Simplicity” - Robin Ecovillages Victory gardens Pat Murphy Horses Home fuels Gilligan’s Island Vicki Robin Extreme Warming 5-15°C Plan A Plan D Worst Case Stable Hot Hot Chaos Stable Plan B Plan C Chaos and (growth) Collapse Economy Plan B Plan C Stable Cool Cool Chaos Plan A Plan D Best Case Slightly Warmer < 1°C PeakPeak OilOil && ClimateClimate ChangeChange CLIMATE CHANGE PEAK OIL RELOCALIZATION (building local drought mitigation coal to liquids resilience) dikes and levies gas to liquids climate engineering relaxed drilling tradable energy quotas carbon capture and regulations decentralised energy storage drilling the arctic, infrastructure tree-based carbon deep ocean the Great Reskilling offsets massively scaled localized food international emissions biofuels production (food feet) trading tar sands and non- energy descent planning climate adaptation conventional oils local currencies improved North American local medicinal capacity transportation Union cohousing logistics resource nationalism ecovillages wind, tidal, wave, and stockpiling transition towns nuclear power acknowledgement: Rob Hopkins “…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument