Project Number: 1-C1975.00 Hamilton to Auckland Intercity Connectivity Interim Indicative Business Case 7 July 2020 CONFIDENTIAL Project Number: 1-C1975 Hamilton to Auckland Intercity Connectivity Interim Indicative Business Case Contents 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose of the business case ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 1 2 Business case format .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 2 Hamilton to Auckland Connectivity .............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Strategic context and vision ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Hamilton to Auckland inter-city connectivity ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Economic context ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 2.4 Baseline growth in the corridor ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................8 2.5 Current corridor mode options ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10 2.6 Corridor challenges and opportunities ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 14 2.7 Positive outcomes investment in inter-city connectivity could achieve ........................................................................................................................................................................ 15 2.8 Investment objectives ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16 3 Strategic Options Scenarios................................................................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 Approach and methodology ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Fast rail in Australia ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 19 3.3 Fast rail in the United Kingdom ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Analysis of rail and non-rail options ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 3.5 Rail long list ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 22 4 Short list scenarios ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.1 Description of shortlist scenarios ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.2 Scenario A: Existing route ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 ©WSP New Zealand Lim ted 2020 2 Project Number: 1-C1975 Hamilton to Auckland Intercity Connectivity Interim Indicative Business Case 4.3 Scenario B: Extended line speed improvements ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................28 4.4 Scenario C: New route between southern Auckland and northern Hamilton ........................................................................................................................................................29 4.5 Scenario D: New route between southern Auckland and northern Hamilton ....................................................................................................................................................... 30 4.6 Cost estimates ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31 4.7 Ridership forecast ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.8 Services and fleet .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34 4.9 Accessibility changes ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 5 Economic Case ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 5.1 Assessment of the potential transport benefits................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 38 5.2 Assessment of the potential increase in the value of land in proximity to the proposed stations ........................................................................................................ 42 6 Conclusion from analysis ...................................................................................................................................................................... 45 6.1 General ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................