The London School of Economics and Political Science ACCOUNTING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: THE TWO DEGREES TARGET AND FINANCING THE TRANSITION TO A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY Robert John Charnock A thesis submitted to the Department of Accounting of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London, September 2016 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 91,484 words. Statement of use of third party for editorial help I can confirm that my thesis was copy edited for conventions of language, spelling and grammar by Alexandra Jungwirth (spouse). 2 ABSTRACT This thesis investigates the emergence of the long-term climate target to hold the increase in global average temperature below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This ‘two degrees target’ is shown to be the product of efforts to embed climate science, ‘cost-effective’ GHG control, and national sovereignty in a long-term climate goal, and that it became a foundation for work to align the financial sector with the transition to a low- carbon economy. This thesis investigates how this target envisages an apparently simple and manageable future for addressing climate change, and comes to orient the strategies of diverse and distributed actors towards a common vision. The empirical core of this thesis is a participant observation of a United Nations and Greenhouse Gas Protocol standard-setting project, which is supplemented by semi-structured interviews and documentary analysis. This thesis studies four interrelated instruments, the two degrees target, the carbon budget, investment roadmaps and an emergent carbon accounting standard. It focuses on the work involved in assembling and adjusting these instruments, attending to the efforts to produce coherent and stable linkages between ideas of climate governance and the local specifics of the financial sector. This thesis shows how a carbon-constrained future with financial sector implications was envisaged. It also traces how ideas stemming from the two degrees target shifted the development of finance-specific carbon accounting practices away from greenhouse gas data and towards metrics for managing risk and monitoring alignment with investment roadmaps. This thesis, as a whole, contributes to our understanding of carbon accounting as a practice that embeds diverse modes of climate governance and coordinates action across multiple entities. It shows the processes through which an apparently simple vision for addressing climate change began to orient diverse and distributed efforts towards financing the transition to a low-carbon economy. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Figures 5 List of Abbreviations 6 Acknowledgments 8 CHAPTER 1: ACCOUNTING AND CLIMATE CHANGE An Introduction 9 CHAPTER 2: COORDINATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Situating the Thesis 21 CHAPTER 3: STUDYING A CALCULABLE VISION Combining Observations, Interviews and Documents 52 CHAPTER 4: TWO DEGREES CELSIUS Representing Climate Change, Mediation and Disaggregation 68 CHAPTER 5: CIVIL SOCIETY AS A QUASI-REGULATOR Mobilising the Carbon Budget 136 CHAPTER 6: MAINTAINING STANDARDS Carbon Accounting and Linking with the Two Degrees Target 175 CHAPTER 7: MEDIATING INSTRUMENTS AND CLIMATE CHANGE A Discussion and Conclusion 242 Bibliography 261 Appendices 285 4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Diagram of the relationships between ideas, instruments and forums for work studied in this thesis. 16 Figure 2.1: Definition of Carbon Accounting (Ascui and Lovell 2011, p.980) 26 Figure 2.2: BankTrack's Climate Killer Banks (Heffa Schücking et al. 2011, .p15) 41 Figure 4.1: Past and projected global mean temperature (Nordhaus 1977a, p.3) 80 Figure 4.2: AGGG Proposed targets for absolute temperature change (Rijsberman and Swart 1990, p.ix) 92 Figure 4.3: IPCC Impacts of or risks from climate change (Smith et al. 2001, p.958) 105 Figure 4.4: Three stages of setting a science-based target (CDP et al. 2015, p.20) 117 Figure 4.5: IPCC relationship between risks from climate change, temperature change, cumulative CO2 emissions and annual GHG emissions (IPCC 2014, p.18) 122 Figure 5.1: Joint and marginal probability distributions of climate sensitivity and transient climate response (Meinshausen et al. 2009, p.1159) 142 Figure 5.2: Probabilities of exceeding 2°C and corresponding emission budgets (Meinshausen et al. 2009, p.1161) 143 Figure 5.3: The Carbon Asset Risk Initiative and its relationships with institutional investors and fossil fuel companies 153 Figure 5.4: Initiating a divestment movement and its impact on investors and index providers 163 Figure 6.1: Business Goals slide presented at Advisory Committee meeting in May 2014 199 Figure 6.2: Boundary Options presented during the May 2014 Advisory Committee meeting 208 Figure 6.3: Boundary Options presented at the June 2014 TWG in- person meeting. 211 Figure 6.4: Portfolio Carbon Initiative Work Stream Structure and 4 Deliverables 221 Figure 6.5: Summary of typical risk types and asset classes associated with each sector/asset category (CAR Draft, February 2015, p.17). 224 Figure 6.6: Overview of Three Categories of Climate Performance Metrics for Institutional Investors (2ii, UNEP FI, GHG Protocol, 2015, p.25). 228 Figure 6.7: SEI Metrics Consortium: Comparing MSCI World Exposure with 2°C Roadmaps (2ii, UNEP FI, GHG Protocol, 2015a, p.63). 231 5 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action AGGG Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases AODP Asset Owners Disclosure Project BSR Business for Social Responsibility BUR Biennial Update Reports CCS Carbon Capture and Storage CDP Formerly known as the Carbon Disclosure Project Ceres The Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent COP Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change DEFRA Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs ESG Environment, Social and Governance EU ETS European Union Emissions Trading Scheme GCM General circulation models GHG Greenhouse gas GRI Global Reporting Initiative ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions IEA International Energy Agency IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis INCR Investor Network on Climate Risk INDC Intended nationally determined contributions IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MCP Montréal Carbon Pledge MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology 6 MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification (UNFCCC) Nazca Non-State Actor Zone for Climate Action NGO Non-governmental organisation NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPO Non-profit organisation PDC Portfolio Decarbonization Coalition PRI Principles for Responsible Investment RAN Rainforest Action Network RCEP Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution SEI Sustainable Energy Investment TCFD Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures TWG Technical Working Group UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNEP FI United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNGC United Nations Global Compact VCLT Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties WBCSD World Business Council for Sustainable Development WBGU Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change (Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen) WMO World Meteorological Organisation WRI World Resources Institute WWF Worldwide Fund for Nature 7 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS A special thank you is owed to my supervisors, Peter Miller and Andrea Mennicken, for their guidance, support and encouragement. I am also greatly indebted to the Department of Accounting and the Centre for Analysis of Risk and Regulation (CARR) at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE). In particular, I would like to thank participants of the LSE accounting research seminars and CARR doctoral seminars, who have provided me with helpful comments and advice. In addition, I am particularly grateful for the feedback received from participants and faculty at the conferences and doctoral colloquia organised by the Centre for Social and Environmental Accounting Research (CSEAR), Interdisciplinary Perspectives in Accounting (IPA) and the European Accounting Association (EAA). Thanks are also due to individuals from the United Nations, the Greenhouse Gas Protocol, NGOs, think tanks, financial organisations, and government agencies who allowed me to interview and observe them. Special thanks are owed to my parents, Anne and Garry, and my brother, Adam, for years of encouragement and patience. Finally, my deepest gratitude and thanks are reserved for the ongoing enthusiasm, assistance and moral support from my wife, Alexandra. 8 Chapter 1 – Accounting and Climate Change CHAPTER 1 – ACCOUNTING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTRODUCTION 1.0. CLIMATE CHANGE, FINANCE AND ALIGNING ACTION ACROSS MULTIPLE ENTITIES On the 12th December