About Friends of the Earth Friends of the Earth is a community based environment and social justice organisation. We work locally and nationally. Internationally we are linked to Friends of the Earth, which operates in 70 countries aro und the world (www.foei.org). Friends of the Earth's Climate Justice campaign understands that climate change is an environmental issue with clear implications for human rights and human health. We recognise that climate change is caused by dangerous over production of greenhouse gases and is driven by systemic inequalities in global resource allocation and use. We aim for a global solution to the threat of climate change, based on a fair share of sustainable resource use for all people. The author of this report Josie Lee is a Climate Justice campaigner at Friends of the Earth. Contact [email protected]. Acknowledgments This report was written with research contributions from Bronwyn Morfett and Hammy Goonan. Special thanks to substantive editor Elizabeth Wheeler and copy editors Peter and Kate Cahill, Polly Buchhorn, and Emma Brindal. Report available from www.foe.org.au. Disclaimer We hope that this publication will be of assistance to you, but Friends of the Earth and its employees do not guarantee that the publication is without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for any error, loss or other consequence that may arise from you relying on any information in this publication. Front cover photo Tractor4 by Benjamin Earwicker: www.garrisonphoto.org. We thank Mr Earwicker for making a selection of his works publicly available for use in not- for-profit contexts. Publication details Published by Friends of the Earth Australia, Melbourne, June 2007 Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 1 Background.........................................................................................................1 Agriculture, food and water....................................................................................1 Energy ...............................................................................................................1 Housing and human settlements.............................................................................2 Employment and financial security ..........................................................................2 Health and wellbeing ............................................................................................2 List of recommendations ..................................................................................... 3 Introduction........................................................................................................ 7 Background ........................................................................................................ 8 Climate change....................................................................................................8 Environmental impacts of climate change .................................................................8 Environmental impacts of climate change in Victoria ...................................................9 Projected social impacts of climate change across the world ........................................9 Our responsibility for climate change .......................................................................9 The need to act ................................................................................................. 10 Adaptation to climate change ............................................................................... 10 Current vulnerabilities of low-income earners in Victoria ........................................... 11 People most vulnerable to climate change .............................................................. 11 Agriculture, food and water .............................................................................. 13 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 13 Projected impacts of climate change on rivers, dams and water catchments ................. 13 Impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry .............................................. 14 Impacts in Victoria ............................................................................................. 15 Low-income earners' current access to fresh food and water...................................... 16 Impacts of food and water insecurity on low-income earners ..................................... 16 Summary ......................................................................................................... 20 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 20 Energy ............................................................................................................. 22 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 22 Projected impacts of climate change on energy ....................................................... 22 Low-income earners' current access to energy ........................................................ 23 Projected impacts on low-income earners ............................................................... 24 Summary ......................................................................................................... 24 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 25 Housing and human settlements...................................................................... 26 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 26 Projected impacts of climate change on human settlements....................................... 26 Projected impacts of climate change on housing and infrastructure ............................. 29 Current vulnerability of low-income earners ............................................................ 30 Impacts of climate change on housing for low-income earners ................................... 31 Vulnerabilities of rural communities to climate change .............................................. 31 Specific vulnerabilities of Indigenous populations to climate change ............................ 33 Summary ......................................................................................................... 34 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 34 Financial impacts of climate change .................................................................. 36 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 36 Climate change and employment .......................................................................... 36 Climate Change and Insurance............................................................................. 38 Climate change impacts – financial synthesis .......................................................... 40 Summary ......................................................................................................... 41 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 41 Health and Wellbeing ....................................................................................... 43 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 43 Projected health impacts for all Victorians in a changed climate.................................. 43 Low-income earners' current state of health and wellbeing ........................................ 45 Vulnerability of minority populations to magnified health problems in a changed climate. 45 Specific impacts on urban low-income earners ........................................................ 47 Summary ......................................................................................................... 48 Recommendations .............................................................................................. 48 Conclusion........................................................................................................ 50 References ....................................................................................................... 52 Executive Summary individuals and families. Projected Background decreases in agricultural production will While mainstream debate currently also impact on rural communities, with focuses on science and the economic most also likely to suffer income decline, dimensions of climate change, there is unemployment and migration, also a growing awareness of its social undermining the viability of some towns. costs. There is a mounting understanding The environmental impacts of climate that the effects of climate change will be change are predicted to be most intense disproportionately felt by already- in the Murray-Darling Basin; hence it vulnerable communities, including people follows that the social impacts will also be on low-incomes and communities directly focused on rural communities and dependent on their local environment for Indigenous people in this region. survival. Focusing on Victoria, this report identif ies the projected direct and indirect effects of Energy