New South Wales Climate Impact Profile Technical Report Potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity Cover photos (main image, clockwise): Aerial view of Lane Cove River (Andrew Duffy); Helensburgh fires (Allan House); Redhead Bluff (Brook Lesley); White-bellied sea eagle (Joel Winter). © Copyright State of NSW and Office of Environment and Heritage, Department of Premier and Cabinet. The Office of Environment and Heritage, Department of Premier and Cabinet (OEH), and State of NSW are pleased to allow this material to be reproduced for educational or non-commercial purposes in whole or in part, provided the meaning is unchanged and its source, publisher and authorship are acknowledged. Specific permission is required for the reproduction of photographs and images. Office of Environment and Heritage, Department of Premier and Cabinet, has compiled the NSW Climate Impact Profile Technical Report in good faith, exercising all due care and attention. No representation is made about the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the information in this publication for any particular purpose. OEH shall not be liable for any damage which may occur to any person or organisation taking action or not on the basis of this publication. Readers should seek appropriate advice when applying the information to their specific needs. Published by: Office of Environment and Heritage, Department of Premier and Cabinet 59–61 Goulburn Street PO Box A290 Sydney South 1232 Report pollution and environmental incidents Environment Line: 131 555 (NSW only) or [email protected] See also www.environment.nsw.gov.au Ph: (02) 9995 5000 (switchboard) Ph: 131 555 (environment information and publications requests) Ph: 1300 361 967 (national parks, climate change and energy efficiency information and publications requests) Fax: (02) 9995 5999 TTY: (02) 9211 4723 Email: [email protected] Website: www.environment.nsw.gov.au ISBN 978 1 74293 216 3 OEH 2011/0241 September 2011 New South Wales Climate Impact Profile Technical Report Potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity Contents 1 Project overview................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Biodiversity assessment: expert workshops................................................ 1 1.2 How to use this report ................................................................................. 2 2 South Coast region ........................................................................................... 3 2.1 Description of the region ............................................................................. 3 2.2 Climate projections presented to the expert panel ...................................... 4 2.3 Overall impacts on the region’s ecosystems ............................................... 5 2.4 Assessment of impacts on each ecosystem................................................ 9 3 Sydney region.................................................................................................. 28 3.1 Description of the region ........................................................................... 28 3.2 Climate projections presented to the expert panel .................................... 29 3.3 Overall impacts on the ecosystems of the region...................................... 30 3.4 Assessment of impacts on each ecosystem.............................................. 32 4 North Coast, Hunter and New England Tablelands regions ....................... 52 4.1 Description of the region ........................................................................... 52 4.2 Climate projections presented to the expert panel .................................... 54 4.3 Assessment of impacts on each ecosystem.............................................. 56 5 North West region ........................................................................................... 78 5.1 Description of the region ........................................................................... 78 5.2 Climate projections presented to the expert panel .................................... 79 5.3 Assessment of impacts on each ecosystem.............................................. 81 6 North and South Western regions ................................................................. 99 6.1 Description of the regions.......................................................................... 99 6.2 Climate projections presented to the expert panel .................................. 100 6.3 Assessment of impacts on each ecosystem............................................ 104 7 Alps and Southern Tablelands regions....................................................... 142 7.1 Description of the regions........................................................................ 142 7.2 Climate projections presented to the panel ............................................. 143 7.3 Assessment of impacts on each ecosystem............................................ 144 8 References..................................................................................................... 173 Appendix 1 Workshop participants.................................................................. 175 Appendix 2 Significant species of the North West Slopes to Darling riverine plains study region........................................................................ 179 Appendix 3 Species at the limits of their range in the North West Slopes to Darling riverine plains study region ............................................ 195 1 Project overview In 2008, the then NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change (DECC), with the support of the NSW Department of Water and Energy, undertook an initial biophysical ‘exposure scan’ of the regional impacts of climate change on NSW. The project identified a potential range of changes in the environment that may result from predicted (modelled) changes in climate. The potential vulnerabilities of biodiversity, soils, hydrology, coastal processes (including potential inundation) and terrestrial drainage patterns (including during flood events) were assessed at a regional scale. The assessment was undertaken as a first step in providing information for government planning and decision-making. It was not designed to be a comprehensive risk assessment or to develop a risk management framework. Biophysical projections, like climate projections, cannot be definitive. They represent a range of probabilities based on the projections of climate data that also represent a range of probabilities. These projections represent a best guess at this time. Some species are mentioned frequently throughout the text. This is because they serve as a useful case study of representative NSW species; it is not a reflection of agency biodiversity priorities. 1.1 Biodiversity assessment: expert workshops To help in the biodiversity component of this project, DECC undertook a series of regional workshops in 2008–09. The workshop discussions were used as a basis for developing regional impact statements for each State plan region in NSW. This report records the discussions of those workshops, plus additional comments made by the participants subsequent to the workshops. An expert panel for each region was asked to provide its best estimate of the impact of projected climate change on the biota and ecological processes in the region. The panel members were asked to use their knowledge of the ecosystems of the region, in conjunction with the projected A2 climate change scenario (see DECCW 2010 for details), to make informed estimations about the type and degree of change that is likely to occur. This was based on the panel’s understanding of the important ‘drivers’ in ecosystems and how the component species may respond to projected changes. The results were an annotated assessment (including specific regional examples and case studies) of the potential changes to ecological processes and functions as a result of the given climate scenario for each ecological community in each region. For the purpose of this project, ecosystems were defined as the vegetation formations identified by Keith (2004) for NSW. These formations represent broad categories of climate, soils and habitat components of the NSW environment on a state-wide scale. They are the units that are being used to report on the impacts of climate change in each region. For the purposes of this assessment, each formation was considered to consist of all its biological elements, such as flora, fauna (vertebrate and invertebrate) and microbial species. These formations comprise a number of finer scale ecological communities that further describe the character of the formations in each region. It was recognised that this approach would not produce definitive outcomes, but rather a qualitative estimate of likely impacts. The following sections of this report describe the region or regions considered by each of the panels, the climate projections for these regions (as provided by DECC to the panels) and panel discussions regarding the potential impacts. Additional comments made by the participants or reviewers subsequent to the workshops have NSW Climate Impact Profile Technical Report: Potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity 1 also been incorporated. A list of participants and reviewers on each panel is presented in Appendix 1. 1.2 Summary of regional climate projections for NSW Projections for the change in rainfall and temperature have been modelled across NSW for this project.