Commercial Real Estate ALERT Analysis of the Latest Emerging Risks and Trends Researched and Compiled By Commissioned By The Swanepoel T3 Group National Association of REALTORS® [ This page has been intentionally left blank. ] National Association of REALTORS® The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries. Commercial resources: www.nar.realtor/commercial Foreword from Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee Commercial real estate is embedded in nearly every the top emerging risks and trends influencing the segment of the economy; a short, but no doubt commercial real estate industry. Unlike other reports, incomplete, list includes office-oriented businesses, this report includes the perspective of commercial retailing, distribution, leisure and public infrastruc- real estate practitioners as well as many other sourc- ture. Consequently, it is a complex and dynamic es of research and analysis about the sector. As part sector influenced by trends in the domestic and of teh development of the r eport, one-on-one inter- international economies as well as developments in views were conducted with practitioners to determine capital markets. With a global impact measured in the most important concerns and emerging trends. the trillions of dollars, commercial real estate drives vast segments of the economy at the local, national This report covers a range of risks and trends as iden- and international level. tified by leaders in commercial real estate. We hope that you view this report not just as a comprehensive Keeping up with the emerging risks and trends in the discussion of important trends, but also as a tool for commercial real estate area can be a significant un- preparing for the future. Clearly, not all trends dis- dertaking given teh geographic and economic scope cussed will be of the same importance or urgency to of the sector. Much information is available to practi- each practitioner or organization. Large firms will be tioners who need to follow the industry, often in the exposed to each of the trends in different ways than form of detailed reports that focus on current market smaller firms, for example. Similarly, commercial conditions. While this type of market intelligence is practitioners in large urban centers will no doubt view valuable, it is also worthwhile to have a high-level view the implications of these trends for their business dif- of the industry allowing organizations to gain strate- ferently than practitioners in smaller market areas. gic insights by focusing on a few important trends. In any case, the information in this report should provide a starting point for further assessment of the The National Association of REALTORS® Strategic emerging risks and trends that could influence the Thinking Advisory Committee, working with Stefan market environment and the commercial real estate Swanepoel, commissioned this report that discusses industry during the next few years. RANDY SCHEIDT CCIM, GREEN, GRI HEATHER OZUR ABR, CRS, PMN, e-PRO Chair Vice Chair 2017 Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee 2017 Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee Swanepoel T3 Group The Swanepoel T3 Group is a leading provider of strategic research and analysis in the real estate industry. It produces award winning market intelligence reports such as the annual Swanepoel Trends Report, the Swanepoel Power 200 (SP200) and the T3 Tech Guide. The group also manages the annual T3 Summit, residential real estate’s premier think tank for CEOs; T3 Fellows, a business acceleration program for high-growth real estate brokerages and teams; and T3 Sixty, an extensive cadre of management consultants experienced in creating and implementing winning strategies. T3Sixty.com | T3Summit.com | T3Fellows.com | RETrends.com | SP200.com Preface by the Author There is no easy way to encapsulate into one docu- research identifies many different elements—some ment an industry as diverse as the commercial real that would be classified as risks and many as opportu- estate industry, and then to do so whilst a new presi- nities. Like many other industries, commercial real es- dent is rapidly shifting the regulatory and business tate cannot escape the broad trends of demographic landscape. change—in customer profile as well as industry occu- pants— and technology advances in consumer usage We tried. Here is what we did. We interviewed more and needs as well as industry data flow and access. than 20 senior industry executives that have their fin- And last but not least, the impact of capital and global ger on the industry’s pulse, work for a cross section of access. some of the most respected commercial companies in all of North America, and cover the key sectors of com- Commercial real estate is a large industry and the mercial real estate. There were numerous open-ended players at the top of the scale are large and very suc- questions and their responses were comprehensive cessful, warranting a great deal of respect. We trust and transparent, and above all they freely shared their that this Report will achieve its goal by alerting and insights. We also researched every commercial report informing the industry’s participants, and those inter- and study published in the past three years that we ested in its markets, to the complexities, opportunities, could obtain and dissected them from top to bottom. and the risks buried under the surface. Having spent many years exploring and evaluating the It is incumbent upon each of us to ensure that we are trends affecting the real estate industry, and having leaving a healthy and thriving industry to the next authored over 35 books and reports ourselves on the generation, an industry that stands behind its commit- industry, we encountered many issues that we have ment to its customers by addressing and dealing with seen before. But the election of Donald Trump most the risks and opportunities that shape its relevancy. To certainly added an additional level of uncertainty into that end, I urge you to read this report with the intent the equation. of not only becoming informed, but with a commit- ment and obligation to make a difference. Although we Don’t get me wrong. Leaders and executives are not do not claim to predict the future, we do believe that negative at all. As a matter of fact, they are for the more knowledge makes you more prepared. most part more positive post the election than they were before. As one CEO said, “commercial real estate has a unique way of always bouncing back.” As a col- STEFAN SWANEPOEL lective, their answers were filtered, reviewed, catego- Analyst/Author of 35+ Books/Reports rized, and consolidated in nine chapters. New York Times Best-Selling Author Similar to our research of the US, and later the CEO Swanepoel T3 Group Canadian residential real estate industries, this Report Table of Contents 1 Capital Markets Global Access and Managing the Flow Opens New Opportunities 2 In Search of Debt The Policies, Regulations and Reforms Impacting the Availability of Debt 3 Crowdfunding A New, Interesting Alternative Avenue to Finance Commercial Developments 4 Technology A Game Changer of the Entire Commercial Real Estate Industry 5 E-Commerce Changes Impacting Many Different Sectors of Commercial Real Estate 6 Demographics It's Way Bigger Than Just Millennials vs. Retiring Boomers 7 Sustainability Return on Investment Slows Down ‘Feel Good and Do Good’ 8 Regulations A New Kind of President Brings Uncertainty and a Totally Different Direction 9 Other Trends to Track Cyber Security, License Portability, Mergers and Acquisitions, etc. Appendices ©2017 National Association of REALTORS® Commercial Real Estate ALERT 3 EDITOR IN CHIEF Stefan Swanepoel PUBLISHERS RESEARCH/ANALYST Thomas Mitchell RealSure, Inc. and the National Association of REALTORS® CREATIVE EDITOR Tinus Swanepoel ISBN 978-0-9863779-2-1 DISCLAIMER TRADEMARKS While the publisher, authors and editors have used Companies mentioned in this Report own numerous their best efforts in preparing this Report, they trademarks and other marks, and this Report, the make no representation or warranties with respect publishers, the author, and the National Association to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of of REALTORS® or any other party involved in this Report, and specifically disclaim any implied this Report in no way seeks to challenge or dilute warranties. References to any companies, products, any of these marks. Specifically, REALTOR® is a services and websites do not constitute or imply registered trademark of the National Association of endorsement, and neither is any reference or absence REALTORS®. of reference intended to harm, place at a disadvantage or in any way affect any company or person. Neither COPYRIGHT the publishers, interviewees nor editors shall be All rights are reserved and copyright is owned by the liable for any loss or any other commercial damages, National Association of REALTORS®. including, but not limited to, special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. IMAGES AND PHOTOS Images may be protected by copyright and should not be used without approval. The Study The Strategic Thinking Advisory Committee (list of numerous medium-size and regional companies. Each Committee members appended to this Report) of the was asked the same open-ended questions and Stefan National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) was tasked Swanepoel conducted all interviews during the period with the responsibility to produce a report detailing the November 2016 and February 2017. risks and opportunities in the commercial real estate industry. NAR retained the services of one of the leading This study was made significantly more complicated research and information companies in the real estate due to the fact that the presidential elections fell dur- industry, T3 Sixty, Inc. Their findings are published in ing this window and that the unexpected win by presi- this study titled: Commercial Real Estate ALERT: Analy- dent Donald Trump and the subsequent realization sis of the Latest Emerging Risks and Trends.