MARKET ANALYSIS FOR THE LA CENTER ROAD INTERCHANGE SUBAREA To E2 Land Use Planning For La Center Road Subarea Analysis Submitted December 22, 2016 Project Number 2160459.00 MACKENZIE Since 1960 RiverEast Center |1515 SE Water Ave, Suite 100, Portland, OR 97214 PO Box 14310, Portland, OR 97293 | T 503.224.9560 | www.mcknze.com TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Project Introduction and Purpose ............................................................................... 1 II. Existing Conditions ..................................................................................................... 2 Site Suitability Analysis ............................................................................................... 2 Site Access ........................................................................................................................................ 2 Visibility and Frontage ..................................................................................................................... 2 View Potential .................................................................................................................................. 2 Site Configuration ............................................................................................................................ 2 Photo Report .............................................................................................................. 3 Local and Regional Access ........................................................................................... 4 Regional Access ................................................................................................................................ 4 Local Access ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Proximity to Regional Employment Centers ................................................................. 6 Catalytic Development Opportunities ......................................................................... 7 Ilani Casino ....................................................................................................................................... 7 Exit 16 Interchange and Utilities Project ......................................................................................... 7 Site Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 8 III. Socioeconomic Trends and Conditions ........................................................................ 9 Employment Conditions .............................................................................................. 9 Employed Level ................................................................................................................................ 9 Employment Sectors Driving Growth in the Economy .................................................................. 10 Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................................... 11 Washington Employment Security Economic Outlook .................................................................. 11 Population, Housing, and Income .............................................................................. 12 Population Growth ......................................................................................................................... 12 Migration ....................................................................................................................................... 13 Household Growth ......................................................................................................................... 14 Household Income ......................................................................................................................... 14 Tourism Activity ....................................................................................................... 15 Socioeconomic Trends Conclusion ............................................................................. 16 IV. Comparative Assessment—Freeway Interchanges ..................................................... 18 Milepost 14—Ridgefield, Washington ....................................................................... 19 Milepost 21—Woodland, Washington ....................................................................... 20 Milepost 72—Napevine, Washington ........................................................................ 21 Milepost 79—Chehalis, Washington .......................................................................... 22 Milepost 118—DuPont, Washington .......................................................................... 23 Milepost 206—Smokey Point, Washington ................................................................ 24 Freeway Service Retail (Ridgefield, Woodland, Napavine) .......................................... 25 Large Format Retail/Power Center Retail (Chehalis, Marysville) ................................. 25 Town Center Development (DuPont) ......................................................................... 25 \\fl1\Projects\Projects\216045900\6_Final\RPT-E2 Land Use Planning-Market Analysis-161222.docx V. Comparative Assessment—Casino Subareas .............................................................. 26 Silver Reef Casino—Ferndale, Washington ................................................................ 27 Skagit Valley Casino—Bow, Washington .................................................................... 28 Tulalip Resort Casino—Marysville, Washington ......................................................... 29 Snoqualmie Casino—Snoqualmie, Washington .......................................................... 30 Hard Rock Casino—Airway Heights, Washington ........................................................ 31 Comparative Assessment Conclusions .......................................................................................... 32 VI. Commercial Market Analysis ..................................................................................... 33 Delineation of a Commercial Trade Area ................................................................... 33 Demographic Profile of the Trade Area ..................................................................... 34 Potential Retail Sales Support ................................................................................... 35 Commercial Retail Needs Analysis ............................................................................. 36 Resident Households ..................................................................................................................... 37 Freeway Traffic .............................................................................................................................. 38 Daytime Employment .................................................................................................................... 38 Dedicated Tourism Driven from Casino Activity ............................................................................ 38 VII. Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................... 40 \\fl1\Projects\Projects\216045900\6_Final\RPT-E2 Land Use Planning-Market Analysis-161222.docx I. PROJECT INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE The City of La Center is currently developing a subarea plan for the property in adjacency to the new La Center Road interchange on Interstate 5 at Exit 16. The $370+ million project is being constructed concurrent with the development of the Ilani Casino, a 368,000-square-foot gaming and entertainment complex located on the Cowlitz Indian Reservation. The Ilani Casino is anticipated to be a regional tourism anchor. The subarea plan will inform development planning in anticipation of new economic activity associated with a monumental shift in commerce driven by the regional tourism anchor. Development interest in the subarea has already begun to mount, and the city has established a moratorium on development to allow for a thoughtful and prudent planning and land use response to this new economic landscape. As an element of this subarea plan, the City has retained Mackenzie to develop a market analysis of potential market-driven uses opportunities for strategic development sites in the subarea This analysis will be followed by a conceptual development plan and identification of physical and regulatory constraints. The Mackenzie analysis of the La Center Road Subarea (“The Subarea”) builds upon a recently completed study commissioned by the Columbia River Economic Development Council (CREDC). That effort was a comprehensive 10-month-long process to inventory and assess large employment lands in Clark County. The study area for this analysis includes roughly 109 acres of gross land located east of Interstate 5 (represented by the “North Site” and “South Site” in Figure 1). All the properties in the study have been annexed by the City of La Center. An additional 83 acres is also included in the broader subarea study (noted as “Site 3” in Figure 1). Site 3 was studied at length in the 2016 CREDC analysis. Figure 1: Project Study Area \\fl1\Projects\Projects\216045900\6_Final\RPT-E2 Land Use Planning-Market Analysis-161222.docx 1 II. EXISTING CONDITIONS The physical and locational characteristics of the subject subarea (“The Subarea”) are evaluated to determine the attractiveness of the site to accommodate