FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan Prepared under the National Adaptation Framework Prepared by the Office of Public Works www.opw.ie 16 CLIMATE CHANGE SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN Flood Risk Management (2019-2024) Public Consultation EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It is likely that climate change will have significant impacts on flooding and flood risk in Ireland due to rising sea levels, increased rainfall in winter, more heavy rain days and more intense storms. While it is important that causes of climate change are addressed, Ireland must also prepare to adapt to such changes. The first Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management was produced by the OPW in 2015 under the mandate of the National Climate Change Adaptation Framework (DECLG 2012). This Plan has been prepared under the National Adaptation Framework (DCCAE, 2018), and updates the 2015 Plan taking into account new information available on climate change and its potential impacts, developments in flood risk management since 2015 and the Guidelines for the preparation of the Sectoral Adaptation Plans (DCCAE, 2018). The purpose of this Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management is to: • outline the potential impacts of climate change on flooding and flood risk management in Ireland; • identify the objectives for an effective and sustainable approach to adaptation as part of flood Julyrisk management 2019 for the future, • promote a coordinated approach to adaptation: • within the flood risk management sector and sustainable flood risk management measures in other sectors, and, 16 • across the policies and actions of other Sectors including Local Authorities, and, • recommend any further actions required to meet the objectives for adaptation. Climate Impacts on Flooding, Flood Risk and Flood Risk Management Ireland has suffered from some severe flood events over recent decades, including the winter of 2015-16 when many thousands of properties were flooded, cut-off or at risk from flooding. Significant work has been undertaken over recent years to assess the level of risk associated with flooding in Ireland, including through the: • Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment (PFRA) that was a national screening for flood risk under current conditions at a national level to identify the areas of potentially significant flood risk • The Catchment-based Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM) Programme that included detailed assessments of flooding and impacts for potential future climate change scenarios, as well as under current conditions for 300 communities around the country that are home to approximately two-thirds of the population and 80% of properties potentially at risk in Ireland from rivers and seas, the primary source of flooding in Ireland. The CFRAM Programme has identified measures that, in combination with the measures already completed or that were previously at construction or under design, will provide protection to 95% of the properties at risk within the 300 areas. These measures are set out in the Flood Risk Management Plans (FRMPs) that were published in 2018, along with information on the properties and assets at risk. OFFICE OF PUBLIC WORKS SEPTEMBER 2019 1 CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE CLIMATE SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN ADAPTATION SECTORAL Flood Risk Management Risk Flood (2019-2024) Public Consultation Public Human activities are estimated to have already caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, and global mean sea level has risen about 20 cm since the beginning of the 20th century, and is rising at approximately 3.5 cm per decade at present. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has reported that for a 1.5°C rise in temperature, the global mean sea level could rise by up to approximately 1m by 2100, and projections of more intense Atlantic storms could potentially increase surge events and wave heights. Met Éireann has predicted that in Ireland the autumns and winters may become wetter, with a possible increase in heavy precipitation events of approximately 20%. The assessments under the National CFRAM Programme indicate potentially very significant increases in the flood impact and the number of properties that could become at risk from flooding. The impact on both the extent and depth of flooding, as well as on the potential damages caused is however site specific and varies significantly from community to community. Flood relief schemes that are currently in construction or under design, or that are planned as set out in the FRMPs will however protect many of the properties that would otherwise become prone to flooding in future scenarios, or the schemes have, or will be, designed taking account of climate change and the need for adaptation. July 2019 July Climate change will also impact on different aspects of the national flood risk management programme. These impacts, and the need to take adaptive action to address them, vary across the different programmes of work within flood risk management, with the highest priority impacts being on flood protection, spatial planning and development management.16 Non-structural flood risk management measures (e.g., preparedness measures) tend to be more inherently adaptable to changes in flood frequency and severity, and ‘green’ measures, such as natural water retention measures also facilitate adaptation while providing benefits to other sectors (e.g., improve water quality and biodiversity, contribute towards carbon mitigation). Sectoral Adaptation Plan for Flood Risk Management This Plan sets out a long-term goal for adaptation in flood risk management, along with a set of objectives and adaptation actions aimed at achieving those objectives. The long-term goal adopted by the OPW on climate adaptation for flooding and flood risk management is: Promoting sustainable communities and supporting our environment through the effective management of the potential impacts of climate change on flooding and flood risk. To deliver on this goal, the OPW has identified the following adaptation objectives: • Objective 1: Enhancing our knowledge and understanding of the potential impacts of climate change for flooding and flood risk management through research and assessment • Objective 2: Adapting flood risk management practice to effectively manage the potential impact of climate change on future flood risk • Objective 3: Aligning adaptation to the impact of climate change on flood risk and flood risk management across sectors and wider Government policy OFFICE OF PUBLIC WORKS SEPTEMBER 2019 2 CLIMATE CHANGE SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN Flood Risk Management (2019-2024) Public Consultation A number of actions have been identified under each adaptation objective across the areas of activity in flood risk prevention, protection and preparedness and resilience, as well as in further research and capacity building. Flooding has the potential to affect all sectors and local authorities, and Coordination is critical towards ensuring a coherent and whole of government approach to climate resilience in relation to flooding and flood risk management. To ensure progress and continual improvement in adaptation, the implementation of this Plan will be monitored and reviewed through current structures. This will be informed by indicators to enable a critical assessment and to measure progress. An annual review of progress will be undertaken to inform the Annual Sectoral Adaptation transition Statement for Flood Risk Management. July 2019 16 OFFICE OF PUBLIC WORKS SEPTEMBER 2019 3 CLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE CLIMATE SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN ADAPTATION SECTORAL Flood Risk Management Risk Flood (2019-2024) Public Consultation Public 4 July 2019 July 16 OFFICE OF PUBLIC WORKS SEPTEMBER 2019 CLIMATE CHANGE SECTORAL ADAPTATION PLAN Flood Risk Management (2019-2024) Public Consultation TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 11 1.1 Background to this Adaptation Plan ................................................................................... 12 1.2 Flooding and Flood Risk ......................................................................................................... 13 1.3 Background to Flood Risk Management in Ireland .......................................................... 13 1.3.1 National Flood Risk Policy ................................................................................................ 13 1.3.2 EU ‘Floods’ Directive 2007 ............................................................................................... 14 1.3.3 The National Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment ....................................................... 14 1.3.4 The Irish Coastal Protection Strategy Study ................................................................ 15 1.3.5 The CFRAM Programme ................................................................................................... 16 1.3.6 Dutch Peer Review of Ireland’s Flood Risk Management .......................................... 18 1.4 Current Flood Risk Management Practice ......................................................................... 18 1.4.1 Prevention ............................................................................................................................ 19 1.4.2 Protection ............................................................................................................................. 19 1.4.3 Preparedness