Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses Graduate School 1994 Temporal and Synoptic Analyses of Heavy Rainfall in the Southeastern United States. Barry David Keim Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses Recommended Citation Keim, Barry David, "Temporal and Synoptic Analyses of Heavy Rainfall in the Southeastern United States." (1994). LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses. 5732. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses/5732 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. 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Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. University Microfilms International A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Order Number 9502118 Temporal and synoptic analyses of heavy rainfall in the southeastern United States Keim, Barry David, Ph.D. The Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical Col., 1994 UMI 300 N. Zeeb Rd. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 TEMPORAL AMD SYNOPTIC ANALYSES OF HEAVY1 RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Barry David Keim B.A., University of New Orleans, 1987 M.S., Louisiana State University, 1990 May 1994 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am greatly indebted to many individuals for their assistance in the preparation of this dissertation. First, I am forever indebted to my wife Ellen, who provided support, encouragement, and understanding throughout the writing stages of this project. She persevered and assisted in ways far too numerous to mention. I thank my parents, Mr. and Mrs. Elwood H. Keim, for raising me in a home conducive to learning -- for this is where I first learned to conduct research. Also, I could not have survived this experience without their unselfishness, support, and understanding. To Dr. Robert A. Muller, my mentor and friend, I wish to offer my sincere appreciation for believing in my ability and for leading me to Louisiana State University. The guidance provided during my tenure as a graduate student was second to none and his patience is clearly immeasurable. I wish to express my gratitude to my dissertation committee members; Dr. Gregory E. Faiers for teaching me to be myself, even in an academic environment, Dr. James Cruise for adding a complete new dimension to this research, Dr. Keith Henderson for broadening my understanding of global climatic change, Dr. Davin Ramphall for developing my understanding of statistics, and Dr. Robert Carney for coming along for the ride. Critical review from these individuals greatly improved the quality of this project. ii I am also greatly indebted to Dr. Kevin Robbins and David Wilensky of the Southern Regional Center for technical assistance, computer programming, and advice. I thank Russ Vose of Oak Ridge National Laboratory for providing me the data for this project and for "bailing me out" when problems emerged. In addition, assistance was provided by Robert V. Rohli, John M. Grymes III, Anthony J. Vega, and Jeff Hardy primarily in the form of editing and providing valuable references. In addition, a special thanks must be paid to those who provided needed distractions from the pressures of academia. To Rocky Sexton who always found ways to bother and amuse me with his foolishness whether in Iowa, Illinois, or Louisiana. To Eric Perramond for making one heck of a cup of coffee and one hell of a running partner. Finally I wish to acknowledge Line DeBunce, Toni McLaughlin, Mimi Fearn, Tony Lewis, Melanie Counce, Scot Brady, Judy Hoff among many others for allowing me to bitch and complain. Without the kindness, generosity, and support of these aforementioned people, this dissertation would not, and could not, have been produced. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................... ii LIST OF T A B L E S ........................................ vii LIST OF F I G U R E S ......................................... ix ABSTRACT ............................................. xi CHAPTER ONE - INTRODUCTION .......................... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ................................ 1 1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM ...................... 4 1.3 OBJECTIVES ................................ 5 1.4 PERTINENT LITERATURE ...................... 6 1.4.1 G l o b a l ............................... 6 1.4.2 United States ...................... 7 1.4.3 S o u t h e a s t ........................ 8 1.4.4 Variability and Extremes ............ 9 1.4.5 Heavy Rainfall and Flooding ........ 11 1.5 SUMMARY OF LITERATURE.........................16 CHAPTER TWO - DATA AND M E T H O D S ......................... 18 2.1 PRECIPITATION MEASUREMENTS AND THEIR LIMITATIONS ...................... 18 2.1.1 Types of R a i n g a u g e s ................... 19 2.1.2 Potential Problems with Accuracy.................... 2 0 2.2 STUDY A R E A ...................................22 2.2.1 C l i m a t o l o g y ........................... 22 2.2.2 Physiography........................... 23 2.3 D A T A ......................................... 25 2.4 APPROACH AND ASSUMPTIONS ..................2 8 2.4.1 Defining a Heavy Rainfall E v e n t .......................... 3 0 2.4.2 Annual Extreme Storm Series ........ 32 2.4.3 Analyses of the Series of E v e n t s ......................... 32 CHAPTER THREE - SYNOPTIC WEATHER INTERPRETATION AND SEASONALITY.......................................3 5 3.1 SYNOPTIC WEATHER CLASSIFICATION ............ 3 6 3.2 MODIFICATIONS TO THE MULLER S Y S T E M .......... 41 3.3 SYNOPTIC WEATHER ANALYSIS .................. 44 3.3.1 Synoptic Weather Type Frequencies ....................... 47 3.3.2 Seasonality by Weather T y p e ...........52 3.3.3 Statistical Evaluation of Heavy Rainfall Seasonality .... 64 iv 3.3.4 Statistical Evaluation of Mixed Distributions............. 68 3.4 SUMMARY................................... 72 CHAPTER FOUR - FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF HEAVY RAINFALLS............................................74 4.1 SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALLS........................... 74 4.2 TREND ANALYSIS OF HEAVY RAINFALLS IN THE S O U T H E A S T ......................... 77 4.2.1 Spearman Test for T r e n d ........... 78 4.3 ASSOCIATIONS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANNUAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION .... 90 4.3.1 Northern Hemisphere Temperatures and Annual Heavy Rainfall Event Frequencies..................... 92 4.3.2 Local Temperatures and Annual Heavy Rainfall Event Frequencies .... 94 4.4 SUMMARY................................... 100 CHAPTER FIVE - HEAVY RAINFALL TRENDS BY SEASON AND SYNOPTIC WEATHER T Y P E ........................... 102 5.1 TRENDS BY S E A S O N ........................ 103 5.2 TREND ANALYSIS OF HEAVY RAINFALLS BY SYNOPTIC WEATHER T Y P E .....................107 5.2.1 Tests for the Poisson Distribution . 109 5.5.2 Tests for T r e n d ...................Ill 5.3 SUMMARY................................... 12 0 CHAPTER SIX - MAGNITUDE ANALYSIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL . 121 6.1 TREND ANALYSIS OF STORM MAGNITUDES AND ASSOCIATIONS WITH LOCAL TEMPERATURES .... 122 6.1.1 Trend Analysis of Storm Magnitudes . 124 6.1.2 Associations of Storm Magnitudes and Temperature.................12 6 6.2 ANNUAL STORM MAXIMA DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS . 128 6.3 GREATEST 25 STORM EVENT MAGNITUDES ........ 135 6.4 SUMMARY................................... 13 8 CHAPTER SEVEN - SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH POTENTIAL ............................ 140 7.1 OBJECTIVE ONE: SYNOPTIC AND SEASONAL ANALYSES .......................... 142 7.2. OBJECTIVE TWO: STORM FREQUENCY ANALYSIS . 143 7.3 OBJECTIVE THREE: STORM MAGNITUDE ANALYSIS . 145 7.4 FUTURE O U T L O O K ...........................146 7.5 FUTURE RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES .............. 148 REFERENCES