EPA 600/R-18/011 | July 2019 | www.epa.gov/research Vulnerability of Waste Infrastructure to Climate Induced Impacts in Coastal Communities Office of Research and Development Vulnerability of Waste Infrastructure to Climate-Induced Impacts Vulnerability of Waste Infrastructure to Climate- Induced Impacts in Coastal Communities U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development National Risk Management Research Laboratory Research Triangle Park, NC National Center for Environmental Assessment Washington, DC i Vulnerability of Waste Infrastructure to Climate-Induced Impacts DISCLAIMER This document has been reviewed in accordance with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency policy and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. ii Vulnerability of Waste Infrastructure to Climate-Induced Impacts AUTHORS, CONTRIBUTORS, AND REVIEWERS This study was conducted under the Air, Climate, and Energy (ACE) research program of EPA’s Office of Research and Development. The initial draft of the report was prepared by RTI International in Research Triangle Park, NC under U.S. EPA Contract Number EP-D-11-084, Work Assignment 4-04, Task 5. Ozge Kaplan served as the Technical Lead and Alternative Work Assignment Manager, providing overall direction and technical assistance, and was a contributing author. MAIN AUTHORS: Ozge Kaplan, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development Britta Bierwagen, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development Susan Julius, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development Marissa Liang, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development Susan Thorneloe, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development Keith Weitz, RTI International PROJECT TEAM: Kibri Everett, RTI International INTERNAL REVIEWERS: Paul Lemieux, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development Mario Ierardi, U.S. EPA, Office of Land and Emergency Management Chris Carusiello, U.S. EPA, Office of Land and Emergency Management William H. Yelverton, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development C. Andy Miller, U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development EXTERNAL REVIEWERS: Morton A. Barlaz, North Carolina State University Mike Van Brunt, Covanta iii Vulnerability of Waste Infrastructure to Climate-Induced Impacts Table of Contents DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................................................... II AUTHORS, CONTRIBUTORS, AND REVIEWERS ....................................................................................................... III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.1. PROJECT GOAL ................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2. COASTAL COMMUNITY CASE STUDY SITE ............................................................................................................... 5 1.3. CLIMATE RESILIENCY STUDIES IN THE NORFOLK AREA............................................................................................... 6 2. MODELS ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 2.1. INCIDENT WASTE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL (I-WASTE) .......................................................................................... 7 2.2. MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL (MSW DST) ............................................................................. 8 3. DATA AVAILABILITY AND LIMITATIONS ......................................................................................................... 9 3.1. WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................................................... 9 3.2. TRANSPORTATION AND UTILITIES INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................................................... 12 3.3. NATURAL WEATHER EVENTS ............................................................................................................................. 12 3.4. SEA LEVEL RISE ............................................................................................................................................... 13 3.5. IDENTIFIED GAPS IN THE EXISTING DATA AND INFORMATION ................................................................................... 13 3.5.1. Waste Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................... 14 3.5.2. Climate-Related Impacts ................................................................................................................... 14 4. CLIMATE-INDUCED RISKS: PRECIPITATION................................................................................................... 14 4.1. FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL STORMS ..................................................................................................................... 15 4.2. INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ..................................................................................................................... 19 4.3. SUMMARY OF FREQUENCY AND INTENSITY DATA FOR NORFOLK, VA ......................................................................... 20 4.4. HURRICANE INTENSITY VERSUS FLOODING PROBABILITY .......................................................................................... 22 4.5. KEY FINDINGS AND OBSERVATIONS ..................................................................................................................... 22 5. CLIMATE-INDUCED RISKS: SEA LEVEL RISE ................................................................................................... 23 5.1. GEOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN ............................................................................. 24 5.2. APPROACHES FOR ANALYZING THE EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON GROUNDWATER ..................................................... 28 5.2.1 Use of MODFLOW to Simulate Current and Future Groundwater Levels............................................... 28 5.2.2 Use of the Pee Dee River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Salinity Model-Decision Support System (PRISM2-DSS) ...................................................................................................................................................... 29 6. UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS ON LANDFILLS ................................................................................................. 29 6.1. PRECIPITATION RELATED ................................................................................................................................... 29 6.2. SEA LEVEL RISE ............................................................................................................................................... 30 7. UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ....................................................... 32 7.1. TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORTING WASTE MANAGEMENT ................................................................. 33 7.2. DISRUPTIONS-DURATION, RECOVERY TIMES, AND ALTERNATIVE OPTIONS ................................................................. 36 7.3. SEA LEVEL RISE AND GROUNDWATER .................................................................................................................. 38 8. UNDERSTANDING IMPACTS ON UTILITIES AND OTHER SUPPORTING INFRASTRUCTURE ............................. 38 8.1. WATER SUPPLY............................................................................................................................................... 38 8.2. ELECTRIC UTILITIES .......................................................................................................................................... 38 9. ASSESSING COST AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF ALTERNATIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS .. 38 iv Vulnerability of Waste Infrastructure to Climate-Induced Impacts 9.1. SCENARIOS ANALYZED USING THE MSW DST ...................................................................................................... 39 9.2. SCENARIO RESULTS .......................................................................................................................................... 44 9.2.1. Cost .................................................................................................................................................... 44 9.2.2. Energy Consumption .......................................................................................................................... 45 9.2.3. Carbon Emissions ............................................................................................................................... 46 9.3. SENSITIVITY ANALYSES...................................................................................................................................... 47 10. CONCLUDING REMARKS .......................................................................................................................... 48 11. REFERENCES ...........................................................................................................................................