1 Critical Junctions on the Journey to 1.5°C: The Decisive Decade CLIMATE Strategies 2 AUTHORS Lead Author • Joyashree Roy (India/Thailand), Sustainable Energy Transitions Programme, Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand & Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, India – Member of Climate Strategies Authors • Nandini Das (India), Global Change Programme-Jadavpur University • Duke Ghosh (India), Global Change Research • Suzana Kahn-Ribeiro (Brazil), Federal University of Rio de Janeiro - UFRJ • Manaswita Konar (India/UK/USA), World Resources Institute • Omar Masera (Mexico), UNAM • Narasimha Rao (India/USA), Yale University & IIASA • Shreya Some (India), Global Centre for Environment and Energy, Ahmedabad University & Department of Economics-Jadavpur University • Richard Wood (Australia), NTNU Contributors Climate Strategies • Adriana Chavarría – Project manager, reviewer and editor • Julie-Anne Hogbin – Reviewer and editor • Andrzej Błachowicz – Project advisor and reviewer • Sascha Brandt – Reviewer • Olivia Crowe – Project contributor Other contributors • Joanna Depledge, Member of Climate Strategies and CEENRG Fellow, University of Cambridge – Reviewer • Claudia Delpero – Editor Design: • Marcela Martínez Cite this report as: Roy, J. et al. (2021). Critical Junctions on the Journey to 1.5°C: The Decisive Decade. London/The Hague: Climate Strategies. This report was commissioned as part of the Mission 2020 campaign to help chart the path forward in the Decisive Decade. It aims to highlight the key steps needed - building on what is already articulated - for action over the decade ahead so that we might keep temperature rise within the goals outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement and create a healthier, safer, more resilient world. In December 2020, the Mission 2020 campaign released the ‘Prelude to a Great Regeneration’, which shines a light on the characteristics we’ll need to embody to ensure success. It is well worth a read as a prelude, not just to the decade, but also to this report. This commission will be followed by an inquiry into the future of climate action. 3 Acknowledgements We acknowledge with profound gratitude the numerous experts who have made this report possible. We are also extremely thankful to early career researchers either doing doctoral degrees or post-doctoral research on climate change, energy, sustainable development or an intersection of these topics who have been part of this report. The time commitment and prompt feedback despite all the constraints imposed by pandemic are highly appreciated. Excellent feedback to our questionnaire by influential authors has enriched the content. We would also like to thank the teams at the Saïd Business School who have worked on the sister report ‘Decisive Decade’, particularly Denis West. And of course, the team at Mission 2020: Todd Edwards, Lucy Cargill, Sara Stefanini, Zoe Tcholak-Antitch and Rajiv Joshi. We also wish to thank Sandrine Dixson-Declève (The Club of Rome), Brendan Guy (Natural Resources Defense Council - NRDC) and Kelly Levin (World Resources Institute - WRI) for sharing their insights as authors and contributors to some of the key exponential pathways’ reports analysed herein. Finally, we would like to extend our appreciation to Amy Weinfurter (formerly Data- Driven EnviroLab/currently WaterNow Alliance), whose research provided important inputs to this report. 4 Executive Summary 6 Key messages 7 Introduction 8 Summary of the Ten Reports on Exponential Transition 10 Pathways Why we need resolve to deliver: Accelerating the Transition 11 to Net Zero 2020: A turning point in global emission trends 12 Why is 2020-2030 a decisive decade? 13 Sensitive Intervention Points: Triggering Systemic Change 15 in this Decisive Decade SIP 1: Energy: Renewables in, fossil fuels out 18 SIP 2: Zero emissions transport 22 SIP 3: Nature based solutions: ramping up sink capacity 25 SIP 4: Change demand, food and dietary system 29 SIP 5: Heavy industries commit to science-based targets 32 SIP 6: Zero carbon human settlements 34 Contents Finance, Policy and Global Partnerships: The Key Levers 37 Investment and Finance 38 Policies make or break 40 Partnerships to accelerate action 41 Conclusion 42 References 45 5 Executive Summary 6 Executive Summary While the world battled the COVID-19 pandemic, key reports. The body of literature charting the 2020 marked a turning point towards reaching the pathways to transition is large and growing. More 1.5°C goal envisioned by the Paris Agreement. We reports on the scientifically backed normative have started this decade with more technological transition pathways have been published before solutions, political and private sector commitment, and since these consultations. Those selected for and public support for climate action than ever this study are highly influential but not an exhaustive before. Progress has been incredible, made possible reflection of the literature. by years of hard work, a growing chorus of new voices and action across all sectors of our economies. The Rather than undertaking new primary research, challenge now is to effectively harness that energy this report harnesses the spirit, energy and and use it to forge the necessary descent of GHG ideas already present in the field, attempting to emissions. Whether we succeed is not a question synthesise the findings of the family of reports of feasibility, but a choice we must now make. into a cohesive and comprehensive story. The key message that emerges is that, while there are As stated by the IPCC and the Carbon Law pathway, several fronts that require action, what we need to keep the Paris goals on track we need to reduce now is resolve to deliver these actions. Only an global GHG emissions by 50% by the end of 2030 immediate and decisive effort in every part of our while drawing down massive amounts of CO2 societies will initiate systemic change. already in the atmosphere. The ‘race to zero’ has ii started. With 63% of global emissions now covered The notion of Sensitive Interventions Points or SIPs by a net zero goal, world leaders, policymakers, was used as a lens to identify the common storyline industry, academia and citizens alike, must come underlying the emissions reductions roadmap together to turn that ambition into exponential to 2030. Six SIPs are herein presented: energy, transformation across all sectorsi. The 2020s is transport, natural carbon sinks, food, industry and when we will find out whether humanity has the human settlements. In addition, policy, finance, courage to come together to keep this planet leadership and collaboration, serve as levers to habitable for the generations to come. scale up systemic changes, in order to match the scale of the challenges and opportunities that lie This report aims to contribute to that goal by ahead. This is the story of how we can best use this presenting the underlying story of climate science decade to set the world on a pathway to net-zero and the pathways set out by a ‘family’ of ten emissions. 7 Key messages The resolve to deliver in this decade • Building on consolidated science, human action is needed to enhance the capacity of • To reach the temperature goal agreed in Paris, we natural carbon sinks. In this decade, forests and must harness the 2020 turning point to irrevocably agriculture must be converted from net sources change the global emissions trend. We need to of greenhouse gases to net sinks. at least halve emissions every decade whilst removing carbon dioxide already accumulated Ensuring the active participation of all through in the atmosphere. Achieving a carbon neutrality policy, finance and global partnerships target globally needs simultaneous, multi-sector coordinated interventions and policy support • Incentivising the private sector, the financial that go far beyond incremental improvements of sector, cities, civil society, and citizens to take resource efficiency alone. decisive climate action will require a combination of change of practice, choice of technology, • Action up to 2020 has fallen short of the redirection of investment and policy support. magnitude needed to be consistent with the temperature target set in the Paris Agreement. • To expedite action, policies and finance need to 2020-2030 is the decisive decade for action at be aligned and scaled up everywhere in parallel. a higher speed and wider scale. The window left Multiple accelerators must be triggered by policy, to ensure a safe planet for all is narrowing sharply. incentives and market forces. • Rapid transitions are possible, but only with clear • All developmental finance and investment plans goals, commitments and ambition from national need to be complemented by the repurposing and local government, businesses, investors, civil and redirection of finance towards achieving the society and citizens. Paris temperature targets. A crucial decade of actions to spur systemic • Only an exponential rise in active participation change by countries, regions, cities, villages, small and multinational businesses, investors, civil society • We must end the construction of new coal power and people – around the world - can create the plants, close one plant a day between now and unstoppable momentum so urgently needed. 2040 at least, and accelerate the penetration of renewable power generation, so that clean • For our own survival, a new world view - with the energy becomes the dominant energy source. understanding that exponential climate action is absolutely necessary, desirable, and achievable