LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY Faculty of Global Studies RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES INSTITUTE OF ORIENTAL STUDIES The Eurasian Center for Big History and System Forecasting VOLGOGRAD CENTER FOR SOCIAL RESEARCH GLOBALISTICS AND GLOBALIZATION STUDIES BIG HISTORY & GLOBAL HISTORY Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Korotayev ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Volgograd ББК 28.02 87.21 Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Big History & Global History. Yearbook / Edited by Leonid E. Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin, Peter Herrmann, and Andrey V. Korotayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2015. – 384 pp. This yearbook is the fourth in the series with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies. The subtitle of the present volume is Global History & Big History. The point is that today our global world really demands global knowledge. Thus, there are a few actively developing multidisciplinary approaches and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History and Big History. They all provide a connection between the past, present, and future. Big History with its vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research encompasses all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. Global History is transnational or world history which examines history from a global perspective, making a wide use of comparative history and of the history of multiple cultures and nations. Global Studies express the view of systemic and epistemological unity of global processes. Thus, one may argue that Global Studies and Globalistics can well be combined with Global History and Big History and such a multi- disciplinary approach can open wide horizons for the modern university education as it helps to form a global view of various processes. The publication of this volume has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 15-18- 30063 ‘Historical Globalistics: historical evolution, current state and forecast development scenarios for global networks of flows, interactions and communication, global processes, and planetary institutions, the role of Russia and BRICS’). ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Kirova Street, 143, Volgograd, 400079, Russia Prinited in Volgograd polygraphic complex “Ofset” Kim Street, 6, Volgograd, 400001, Russia ISBN 978-5-7057-4579-1 © ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2015 Volgograd 2015 Contents Introduction. Big History and Global History in the Field of Globalistics .................... 5 Part I. Globalization and Global Processes George Modelski. Kondratieff Waves, Evolution, and Globalization .......................... .8 Anton L. Grinin and Leonid E. Grinin. The Cybernetic Revolution and Historical Process .............................................................................................................................. .18 Valentina M. Bondarenko. A Worldview Approach to the Developmental Prob- lems of Russia and the World ........................................................................................... .58 Ivan A. Aleshkovski. International Migration Management in the Era of Globali- zation .................................................................................................................................. 76 Leonid E. Grinin and Andrey V. Korotayev. Globalization, Revolutions, and Democracy ......................................................................................................................... 87 Alexey I. Andreev, Ilya V. Ilyin, and Julia V. Zinkina. Approaches and Para- digms in Defining the Essence of Globalization .............................................................. 110 Oleg A. Alekseenko. BRICS: Prospects of Cooperation ........................................... 119 Ilya V. Ilyin and Olga G. Leonova. Globalization Political Processes in Their Dynamic and Development ............................................................................................. 127 Part II. Global History and Modernity David Christian. Swimming Upstream: Universal Darwinism and Human His- tory ................................................................................................................................... 138 Tatyana L. Shestova. Eastern Europe within the Ancient World-Systems ............. 155 Craig G. Benjamin. Big History, Collective Learning and the Silk Roads .............. .167 Sergey V. Tsirel. Classifications of Ways to Statehood and Democracy .................. 176 William R. Thompson and Kentaro Sakuwa. Another, Simpler Look: Was Wealth Really Determined in 8000 BCE, 1000 BCE, 0 CE, or Even 1500 CE? .......................... 193 Mikhail А. Kaverin and Sergey Yu. Malkov. The Elementary Structures of Inter- national Institutional Evolution ....................................................................................... 216 4 Globalistics and Globalization Studies Vladimir Maslov. The Need for New Management .................................................. 224 Sergey Yu. Malkov, Stanislav Ye. Bilyuga, Olga I. Davydova, and Dmitry S. Malkov. Resistance to Socio-Political Instability as an Indicator of the Country's Successful Development .................................................................................................. 242 Alexey I. Andreev, Ilya V. Ilyin, and Julia V. Zinkina. The ‘Age’ of Globaliza- tion. How Old is the Global World? ................................................................................ 250 Part III. Big History Perspective David G. Christian. The Evolution of Big History: A Short Introduction ................. 258 Lowell Gustafson. From Particles to Politics ............................................................ 263 Leonid E. Grinin. The Star-Galaxy Era of Big History in the Light of Universal Evolutionary Principles ..................................................................................................... 282 David Baker. Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: Collective Learning as a Key Concept in Big History .................................................................................................... 301 Andrey V. Korotayev and Alexander V. Markov. Mathematical Modeling of Bio- logical and Social Phases of Big History ......................................................................... 319 Joseph Voros. Galactic-Scale Macro-еngineering: Looking for Signs of Other In- telligent Species, as an Exercise in Hope for Our Own ................................................... 344 Alexander D. Panov. Post-singular Evolution and Post-singular Civilizations ........ 361 Contributors to the volume ........................................................................................ 377 Introduction. Big History and Global History in the Field of Globalistics One often maintains that our global world demands global knowledge. The need to see the processes of development holistically, in their origins and growing complexity, is funda- mental not only for science but also for the human advance in general. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, there was an explosive growth of scientific knowledge accompa- nied by a deep differentiation of disciplines. But scientists working in different fields may run the risk of losing sight of how each other's tireless work connects and contributes to their own. Thus, it is not surprising that in the twenty-first century we observe a vigorous development of multidisciplinary and integral disciplines among which one can name Global Studies, Global History, and Big History, each providing a connection between the past, present, and future. The present volume is the fourth in the series of yearbooks with the title Globalistics and Globalization Studies1. However, why Globalistics, not Global Studies? As we ex- plained earlier, the notion of Globalistics first appeared in Russia, this is a translation of the Russian term globalistika; however, we believe it might be useful within the English Global Studies thesaurus. We are sure that the introduction of this term is justifiable, be- cause it expresses the vision of systemic and epistemological unity of global processes, the presence of some relatively autonomous field with its own research subject. Morphologi- cally this term is identical with such well-established designations of academic disciplines as Economics, Linguistics, Physics, and so on (for more details see Grinin, Ilyin, and Ko- rotayev 2012b, 2013b, 2014b). The subtitle of the present volume is Big History & Global History. What is Big His- tory? Big History is a vast and extremely heterogeneous field of research which encom- passes all the forms of existence and all timescales and brings together constantly updated information from the scientific disciplines and the humanities. The unique approach of Big History has opened up vast research agendas and suggests variety of forms. This discipline weaves together all the disciplines into a single narrative where interdisciplinary work is not only possible, but essential. As has been mentioned on a number of occasions, the rap- idly globalizing world needs global knowledge that explains a unified global system (about Big History see Hughes-Warrington 2005; Nazaretyan 2005; Spier 2005; Christian 2005; Carneiro 2005; Markov, Korotayev, Grinin 2009; Grinin, Carneiro, Korotayev, and Spier 2011; Grinin and Korotayev 2009; Grinin, Korotayev, and Baker 2014). Thus, we may say that globalization itself becomes propulsion