^U^£SCHOou DUDLEY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVES AND THE NEOREALIST STATE: IRAN AND REALPOLITIK by Michael S. Grogan December 2000 Thesis Co-Advisors: Ahmad Ghoreishi Glenn E. Robinson Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704- 0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202- 4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 2000 Master's Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Title (Mix case letters) 5. FUNDING NUMBERS National Security Imperatives and the Neorealist State: Iran and Realpolitik 6. AUTHOR(S) Michael S. Grogan 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) I. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING / MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. 12a. DISTRD3UTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRD3UTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis argues that pragmatic, neorealist interests—reducing Iran's international isolation, opening avenues for economic cooperation and commercial exchange, restoring religious and cultural links, and safeguarding the mutually advantageous relationships with influential powers in the region—are the true foundations of Iranian national security and foreign policy decisionmaking. Iran's imperative has been—and still is—focused on the pragmatic national security interests of the nation-state model vice the ideological potential for spreading its brand of Islamic revolution abroad. The causes of these Islamic revolutionary groups, no matter how noble in the Iranian leaderships' eye, do not outweigh the more classic nation-state decisionmaking process that the Iranian government undergoes when it determines the best course of action on an issue of foreign policy and/or national security—or realpolitik. It is the neorealist approach which always wins out in national security matters of a state. Presented are four case studies of Iranian relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey, Israel, and four Persian Gulf States (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). What each reveals is an Islamic Iran whose policy decisions and actions compelled by the rational, state model of neorealism and not ideology. 14. SUBJECT TERMS 15. NUMBER OF Middle East, Persian Gulf, Iran, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Central Asia, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the PAGES libn -> r United Arab Emirates (UAE), Oman, Israel, Arab-Israeli Peace Process, Neorealism, Balance of Power, Alliances, National Security Policy 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF REPORT CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSD7ICATION OF OF ABSTRACT Unclassified PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified UL NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK 11 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited NATIONAL SECURITY IMPERATIVES AND THE NEOREALIST STATE: IRAN AND REALPOLITIK Michael S. Grogan Major, United States Marine Corps B.S., Pennsylvania State University, 1985 M.A., American Military University, 1995 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degrees of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS and MASTER OF ARTS IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL December 2000 2.000 fct&oz?-*' THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 93943-5101 ABSTRACT This thesis argues that pragmatic, neorealist interests—reducing Iran's international isolation, opening avenues for economic cooperation and commercial exchange, restoring religious and cultural links, and safeguarding the mutually advantageous relationships with influential powers in the region—are the true foundations of Iranian national security and foreign policy decisionmaking. Iran's imperative has been—and still is—focused on the pragmatic national security interests of the nation-state model vice the ideological potential for spreading its brand of Islamic revolution abroad. The causes of these Islamic revolutionary groups, no matter how noble in the Iranian leaderships' eye, do not outweigh the more classic nation-state decisionmaking process that the Iranian government undergoes when it determines the best course of action on an issue of foreign policy and/or national security—or realpolitik. It is the neorealist approach which always wins out in national security matters of a state. Presented are four case studies of Iranian relations with Azerbaijan, Turkey, Israel, and four Persian Gulf States (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). What each reveals is an Islamic Iran whose policy decisions and actions compelled by the rational, state model of neorealism and not ideology. THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK VI TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. IRAN & AZERBAIJAN 2 B. IRAN & TURKEY 3 C. IRAN & ISRAEL 4 D. IRAN & THE PERSIAN GULF STATES 5 H. NEOREALIST THEORY IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 9 A. SIX ASSUMPTIONS OF NEOREALISM 11 m. THE IRANIAN PERSPECTIVE 15 A. IRAN'S SECURITY PERCEPTION 15 B. IRAN'S FOREIGN POLICY IMPERATIVES 18 1. Evolving Policy Strategies 19 2. The Islamic Revolution 25 C. THE CASE STUDY EVIDENCE 26 IV. IRAN & AZERBAIJAN RELATIONS CASE STUDY 29 A. BACKGROUND 29 1. Ancient Connections 30 2. The Imperialist Years 32 3. The Coming of the Iron Curtain 32 4. Demise of the Soviet Union 33 5. The First Years of Azerbaijan Independence 35 B. THE PERCEIVED THREAT FROM AZERBAIJAN 36 1. The APF: Fanning the Flames of Nationalism 38 a. Iran's Pragmatic Choice 40 2. Iran and the War in Nagorno-Karabakh 44 C. SUMMARY 50 V. IRAN & TURKEY RELATIONS CASE STUDY 51 A. BACKGROUND 51 vn . B. CENTRAL ASIA: IRAN, TURKEY, AND THE NEW "GREAT GAME" 56 1. Iranian Policy in Central Asia 58 2. Pan-Turnism Fears 60 3. Limits of Iranian Policy in Central Asia 62 4. Turkmenistan and Tajikistan 65 C. INTRIGUES AND COUNTER-INTRIGUES: AZERBAIJAN THROUGH A TURKISH LENS 67 1. Iran's View of the Threat 68 2. Iran's Perception of the Growing Pan-Turanic Threat 69 D. THE KURDISH QUESTION IN IRANIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS .. 72 1 Under the Shroud of War: Iranian Concerns with Turkish Intentions 75 2. Tehran's "Chameleon" Policy and the Abortion of a Kurdish State 78 3. Today's Iranian-Turkish Relations: The Kurdish Issue Remains 82 E. SUMMARY 84 VI. IRAN & ISRAEL REALTIONS CASE STUDY 87 A. BACKGROUND 87 B. THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR 90 1. The Iran-Contra Affair 90 2. Iran-Iraq War Cease-fire 95 C. THE EXISTENTIAL THREAT FROM ISRAEL 96 D. IRAN AND THE PEACE PROCESS 100 1. The Arab-Israeli Conflict and Iran 101 2. Terrorism and the Peace Process 105 3. Iran's Opposition to the Peace Process 106 E. BALANCE OF POWER QUESTIONS 107 1. Hezbollah and Iran's Involvement in Lebanon Ill 2. Iran's Possible Future Actions 113 a. Iran Could Do Nothing 115 b. Iran Could Derail the Process 116 F. SUMMARY 116 Vlll VII. IRAN & THE PERSIAN GULF STATES' RELATIONS CASE STUDY 1 19 A. BACKGROUND 119 B. IRAN & THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES RELATIONS 122 1. The Dispute Heats Up 124 2. Background of the Claims 125 a. The Shah Relieves the British 125 b. The Islamic Republic Takes Full Control 126 3. Today's Iranian-UAE Stalemate 130 4. The Strategic Value to Iran 133 5. Review of Relations 135 C. IRAN & BAHRAIN RELATIONS 136 1. Iranian Empathy with the Shi'a of Bahrain 136 2. Fears of a Pro-Iranian "Fifth Column" 141 3. Iranian Policy Logic vis-a-vis Bahrain 143 4. Review of Relations 144 D. IRAN & OMAN RELATIONS 145 1. Omani Security Perceptions 146 2. Iran and Oman: The Evolving Relationship 149 3. Review of Relations 152 E. IRAN & SAUDI ARABIA RELATIONS 153 1. Iran and the Character of Saudi Arabian Diplomacy 154 2. Historical Iran-Saudi Relations 156 3. The Dark Decade in Relations 157 4. 1990-1991 Gulf War: A Fresh Beginning for Iran 160 5. Post-Gulf War Relations 162 6. Tehran's "Charm Offensive": A Swift Shift in Tenor 164 a. The Year 1997 164 b. The Years 1998-99 166 c. The Year 2000 171 7. Structural Imperatives in Iran-Saudi Relations 172 8. Review of Relations 173 F. SUMMARY 174 VIII. CONCLUSION 175 A. THE CASE STUDIES 175 1. Iran and Azerbaijan 175 2. Iran and Turkey 176 3. Iran and Israel 177 IX 4. Iran and the Persian Gulf States 178 B. IRAN TODAY AND TOMORROW 180 C. SOME CLOSING THOUGHTS 181 LIST OF REFERENCES 185 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST 209 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1. Map of Iran and its Surrounding Neighbor States 4 FIGURE 2. The Relationship of Neorealism to other State Theories 13 FIGURE 3. Iranian Provincial Jurisdictions Arrayed Against Neighbor States Illustrate Tehran's Sense Of Embattlement 16 FIGURE 4. Iran once Felt Removed from a Direct Israeli threat 108 FIGURE 5. Iranian Perceptions of Vulnerability to Israeli attack 109 FIGURE 6. Map Showing Location of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunb Islands 123 XI THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xn EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The break-up of the Soviet Union confronted Iran with a set of challenges and opportunities.