Scotland's Population The Registrar General's Annual Review of Demographic Trends 2017 163rd Edition Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends © Crown copyright and database right 2018. Ordnance Survey (OS Licence number 100020542). © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends Annual Report of the Registrar General of Births, Deaths and Marriages for Scotland 2017 rd 163 Edition To Scottish Ministers I am pleased to present to you my Annual Report for the year 2017, which will be laid before the Scottish Parliament pursuant to Section 1(4) of the Registration of Births, Deaths and Marriages (Scotland) Act 1965. Anne Slater Registrar General for Scotland 1 August 2018 Published 1 August 2018 SG/2018/90 © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends Contents Page Foreword......................................................................................................................................................7 Headline Messages.…………………………………...………………………………………………………...……9 Chapter 1 – Population…...………………….……...………...………...…………………………….23 Chapter 2 – Births…………………..……....………...……………………………………….…….…….39 Chapter 3 – Deaths………………..……...………...……...…………………………………….……….51 Chapter 4 – Life expectancy……….…….….………...………..….……………….……………….69 Chapter 5 – Migration……………………...…….……...………...……...………..………………….81 Chapter 6 – Marriages and civil partnerships……….…..….....…....…………………….97 Chapter 7 – Adoptions……….…………………………................................…………………….107 Chapter 8 – Households and housing……….………..….……………..……………………111 Chapter 9 – Statutory registration….……….…….............……….……......……………….119 Chapter 10 – Invited chapter: Burden of Disease in Scotland…….........….….127 Appendix 1 – Summary Tables…………………………………..……...…………….........…………….149 Appendix 2 – Notes, Definitions and Quality of Statistics……..…………….......……….153 Notes on Statistical Publications……..……………………………………………….…..........……….163 © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends Foreword It gives me great pleasure to present the 163rd Registrar General’s Annual Review, my first annual report since taking up the position of Registrar General and Acting Chief Executive of National Records of Scotland. The report provides an overview of Scotland in 2017 looking at key demographic trends for population, migration, and households, as well as analysis of key life events including births, deaths, marriages and civil partnerships. The impact of migration on Scotland’s population growth continues to be a matter of regular public debate. The population is at its highest ever at just over 5.42 million, growing by 5% over the last 10 years – with the majority of this growth due to migration. While the impact of the UK voting to leave the European Union remains unclear, it will undoubtedly have consequences for the people of Scotland and it is therefore more important than ever that good evidence is available to support any related policies or decisions. Latest figures also show that Scotland’s population is projected to continue to age over the next 25 years, with the fastest growing age group those aged 75 and over, projected to increase by nearly 80%. While Scotland is similar to the rest of the UK and many countries around the world in enjoying the positive benefits associated with people living longer, this has implications for funding allocations, tax revenues, pensions, education, health and social care provision. The growing and ageing population has also slowed the long-term downward trend in overall numbers of deaths in Scotland and, alongside the 2% increase in the year to 2017, it may be expected that the number of deaths will increase for the foreseeable future. While we continue to report on the trends in causes of death in Scotland, this year’s invited chapter explores the concept of burden of disease. This is a measure of the health of a population, and the first time that Scotland-specific estimates have been calculated using the full range of data sources in Scotland. It allows an estimate of the contribution that different diseases, conditions and injuries make to the total burden of disease. The research shows that burden of disease is generally greater in more deprived areas of Scotland, and that burden is more likely to be fatal. This provides information to support decisions about where prevention and service activity could be focussed. Communicating our statistics clearly and with impact is essential in ensuring that the vital demographic information published at NRS is integral to decision making in Scotland – sharing the expertise we have to influence in a valuable way. Following a 7 © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends review of our demographic statistics publications, we welcome feedback on the improvements we have made to the format and content of this year’s annual report. I would also like to acknowledge the vital work undertaken by the Registration Services located across Scotland. The production of this report simply wouldn’t have been possible without their collective commitment and professionalism. This information plays a pivotal role in supporting evidence based decision making and the delivery of public services; informing both regional and international comparisons; and underpinning our population estimates and projections, which are integral to the policy development and evaluation work undertaken by both central and local government. In keeping with our new vision for NRS statistics, we will continue to provide trustworthy and relevant information to inform the important decisions that need to be made in Scotland, while also increasing our reach and impact across all users of our data. Anne Slater Registrar General, National Records of Scotland 8 © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends Headline Messages 9 © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends Population Scotland’s population continued to grow over the latest year to mid-2017 and is projected to keep growing The population of Scotland on 30 June 2017 was 5,424,800. The population has increased every year since 2000 and in 2017 was the largest ever seen. Over the latest year to mid-2017, Scotland’s population has grown at a slower rate (0.4%) than that seen in the previous year to mid-2016 (0.6%), but within the range of population change we have seen over the past 10 years, where annual growth rates varied between 0.3% to 0.7%. Scotland’s population is projected to grow to 5.58 million in 2026, and to continue rising to reach 5.69 million in 2041. Number of people (millions) Migration is the main reason for Scotland’s population increase In the year to mid-2017, 23,900 more people came to Scotland than left. This contributed to the increase in Scotland's population. In contrast, natural change (births minus deaths) has not contributed to Scotland's recent population growth, as there were 3,800 more deaths than births in the latest year. Since 2000, Scotland's population has increased mostly due to migration (more people arrived than left) and this trend is projected to continue over the next 25 years. Scotland’s future population growth is projected to be entirely reliant on migration, as there are projected to be more deaths than births each year going forward. 10 © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends Scotland’s population is projected to age In the year to mid-2017, just under one in five people (19%) were aged 65 and over. However by 2041, one in four people (25%) are projected to be in this age group. * Only people aged 89 and under are shown for illustrative purposes. The fastest growing age group in Scotland is projected to be those aged 75 and over, increasing by 79% over the 25 year period between 2016 and 2041. This is followed by those aged 65 to 74, projected to grow by 17% over the same period. In contrast, the population of all other groups (below age 65) are projected to decline over the 25 year period to 2041. Projected population change varies by council area in Scotland, with some areas projected to face depopulation Between 2016 and 2026, the population is projected to grow in most council areas across Scotland. 12 councils are projected to grow faster than the Scottish average (>3.2%) 12 councils are projected to grow but at a slower rate than the Scottish average (≤3.2%). 8 councils are projected to experience depopulation and these areas are concentrated in the west of Scotland. 11 © Crown Copyright 2018 Scotland’s population – The Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends Births The number of births in Scotland continued to fall in 2017 There were 52,861 births registered in Scotland in 2017, which represents 1,627 (3%) fewer births than in 2016 and 15,082 (22%) fewer births than in 1975. Number of births The average age of mothers was 30.5 in 2017, compared to 27.4 in 1991, 26.1 in 1977 and 27.4 in 1964. Similarly, the average age of fathers has also