The Science beneath the Surface A Very Short Guide to the Marcellus Shale Don Duggan-Haas, Robert M. Ross, and Warren D. Allmon The Science beneath the Surface: A Very Short Guide to the Marcellus Shale by Don Duggan-Haas, Robert M. Ross, and Warren D. Allmon with contributions by Kelly E. Cronin, Trisha A. Smrecak, and Sara Auer Perry Paleontological Research Institution 2013 ISBN 978-0-87710-502-2 Paleontological Research Institution Special Publication No. 43 © 2013 Paleontological Research Institution 1259 Trumansburg Road Ithaca, New York 14850 U.S.A. http://www.museumoftheearth.org Design and layout by Paula M. Mikkelsen. Th is book is printed on paper certifi ed by the Forest Stewardship Council, https://us.fsc.org/. Cite this book as: Duggan-Haas, D., R. M. Ross, and W. D. Allmon, with K. E. Cronin, T. A. Smrecak, and S. Auer Perry. 2013. Th e Science Beneath the Surface: A Very Short Guide to the Marcellus Shale. Paleontological Research Institution (Special Publication 43), Ithaca, New York, 252 pp. On the cover: Outcrop of the Marcellus Shale at its “type locality” (the fi rst place that it was described in scientifi c literature, and for which it is named) in Marcellus, New York. Photo by Ben Aronson, courtesy of Linda Ivany. Table of Contents Preface and Acknowledgments . iii Introduction . .1 Chapter 1. Geology of the Marcellus Shale . 5 Chapter 2. Why the Geology Matters . 19 Chapter 3. Th e Technology of Shale Gas Extraction . 33 Chapter 4. Water and Marcellus Shale Development . 63 Chapter 5. Beyond Water: Other Environmental Impacts of Marcellus Gas Development . 89 Chapter 6. Life-Cycle Analysis: Shale Gas and Climate Change . 103 Chapter 7. Th e Marcellus Shale in a Broader Energy Context . 123 Chapter 8. Compared to What? Risk, Uncertainty, & Hydrofracking . 141 Chapter 9. Teaching About the Marcellus Shale . 159 Chapter 10. So What? . 175 Abbreviations and Acronyms . 180 Glossary . 182 Endnotes . 189 Figure Credits . 211 References . 214 Index . 230 Contributors . 252 i ii Preface & Acknowledgments Th is book is a result of a project begun in 2009 by educators at the Paleontological Research Institution (PRI) in Ithaca, New York, in collaboration with several programs at Cornell University, especially Cornell Cooperative Extension. Th is eff ort has had as its main goal providing for the general public, especially in New York State, summaries of the best science available on the major aspects of the geology of the Marcellus Shale, and the complex environmental issues surrounding the extraction of natural gas from it. Pursuing a major public educational outreach eff ort on a controversial topic like the Marcellus is in some ways familiar to PRI staff , in that we have a long history of addressing other sometimes-contentious issues, such as evolution and climate change, under sometimes-challenging circumstances.1 In the case of these topics, however, there is little or no signifi cant scientifi c controversy about the major points, for example, whether evolution is true or whether global warming is happening and is largely a result of human activities. In the case of gas extraction in the Marcellus Shale, in contrast, there are still signifi cant gaps in basic knowledge and signifi cant legitimate disagreements over interpretation of what data do exist. We have therefore occasionally found ourselves in the unfamiliar position of being publicly criticized by individuals highly respected in their respective academic specialties (on both sides of the issue) for not taking their particular position, of being told by potential funders that our educational eff orts could only receive fi nancial support if we declared in advance our commitment to their point of view, and even of being judged right or wrong based on the perceived positions of previous supporters of our institution.2 Within this context, PRI early on laid out what we hoped would be a clear statement of intent, which has informed the writing of this book: • PRI provides educational outreach on topics related to drilling for natural gas in the Marcellus Shale. Th e goal iii of these outreach eff orts is to help provide evidence- based information on the origin of natural resources, their distribution, their exploration and removal, and the environmental impacts of this activity over time and geographic scales, both small and large. An important component of this outreach is contrasting local and global costs and benefi ts of shale gas drilling with other sources of energy imported to or developed in the region. PRI recognizes that drilling in New York State might begin soon, necessitating more and better scientifi c information about natural gas drilling for citizens and municipal offi cials. • More generally, the PRI outreach program is intended to improve science literacy, especially about the Earth. Creating a sustainable society involves making complex choices among energy options and environmental protection. All energy resources have impacts that are both local and global, both short-term and long-term. PRI outreach seeks to improve public understanding of these contrasts, because such understanding is necessary for making eff ective decisions now and in the future. • PRI does take public positions relating to the use and teaching of good science. PRI does not, however, take public positions for or against specifi c policies that relate to the environment, land use, the economy, or natural resources. Th is does not mean that PRI is agnostic about these topics, but that our role is to present the best science information possible, to help citizens and policy makers make well-informed decisions.3 Our partners in the Marcellus Shale project have been Cornell Cooperative Extension (http://cce.cornell.edu/EnergyClimateChange/NaturalGasDev/Pages/default. aspx), Cornell University’s Water Resource Institute (http://wri.eas.cornell.edu/), and Cornell University’s Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. We are especially grateful to Rod Howe of Cooperative Extension for originally inviting us to partner on educational outreach connected to the Marcellus, and for his support and encouragement throughout the past four years. For discussion, advice, and/or information that informed the writing and thinking that became this book, we are very grateful to Cornell colleagues Larry Brown, Lou Derry, Bob Howarth, Rod Howe, Tony Ingraff ea, John Jaquet, Terry Jordan, Natalie Mahawold, Susan Riha, and Rich Stedman. Rick Allmendinger, Art Bogan, Dan Graf, Katie Keranen, and Brian Rahm also contributed timely information. We are especially thankful to the following individuals for reading and off ering helpful comments on all or part of previous drafts of this manuscript: David Allard, Rick iv Allmendinger, Richard Beal, Adam Blair, Martin Casstevens, Larry Cathles, Lou Derry, Cliff Froelich, Gayle Gleason, Chuck Greene, Will Hackett, Bryce Hand, Joe Henderson, Bob Howarth, Tony Ingraff ea, Terry Jordan, Bill Kappel, David Kay, Won-Young Kim, Katrina Korfmacher, John Mason, Connor O’Laughlin, Jeff Over, Brian Rahm, Bob Raynolds, Erich Schramm, Bruce Selleck, Cathelijne Stoof, Chuck Ver Straetten, Jennifer Tegan, Jeff Tester, Tom Wilbur, and several individuals who wish to remain anonymous. We did not take all of their many suggestions, and are completely responsible for the fi nal result. Our sincere thanks are also due to Rick Allmendinger, Jim Houghton, Linda Ivany, Yukta Sagar, Joe Henderson, Sally Vann, and Alex Wall for help with illustrations, to Sally Vann for last-minute research help, and to Paula Mikkelsen for her timely and always-excellent help with editing and production. PRI’s Marcellus Shale outreach eff orts have been supported by a joint research and extension program funded by the Cornell University Agricultural Experiment Station (Hatch funds) and Cornell Cooperative Extension (Smith-Lever funds) received from the National Institutes for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, and by grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF GEO- 1016359 and 1035078). Any opinions, fi ndings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect the views of either the U.S. Department of Agriculture or the National Science Foundation. -Th e Authors, Ithaca, New York, August 2013 v Introduction It is a common observation that the world has changed, that we today live in a very diff erent world from the one in which our grandparents or parents, or even we, were born. What’s usually meant by such statements, however, is the world of human culture and society. Th e “natural” world, by contrast, seems relatively constant, the epitome of stability. Yet this is no longer the case. Whatever one’s political, economic, or social views, it is no longer reasonable to deny that the Earth’s land, air, water, and life have been signifi cantly altered by human activity. Th e Anthropocene is a name recently proposed by Earth scientists for the time interval since humanity became such a powerful force of change.1 Th e term is usually assigned to start at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, approximately 200 years ago. Although any interval might seem historically signifi cant as one is living through it, it’s hard not to conclude that history will look back upon the early 21st century as a pivotal moment, at which the recognition and understanding of humanity’s impacts on the Earth led to a global debate about what, if anything, should be done to change course. History will, of course, know whether humanity took steps that measurably slowed the rate of human impact, or it did not, and stuck to "business as usual," in which case accelerated environmental change led to a transformed planet, with major consequences for humans and other life. Global environmental change is obviously not the only pressing concern for humanity right now. We are worried about how we will feed and otherwise provide for a population that will likely grow by at least 2 billion over the next 30–40 years.