Pan African Monitor Weekly Wrap & Outlook March 12, 2021 Anglophone West Africa Looking Forward Ghana • Nigeria CPI—16th Mar • The Ghanaian statistical service released its inflation estimates for February-2021 showing that headline consumer inflation spiked 40bps to West Africa 10.3% in February 2021. N igeria • To plug the deficit in its 2021 budget, Ghana will embark on a roadshow GDP 0.1% next week to raise $5.0bn in Eurobonds from the international capital Inflation 16.5% markets. • The Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors (CBOD) has revealed that the MPR 11.5% government lost GHS 1.9bn ($33mn) to petroleum tax evasion in 2019. External Reserves ($) 34.7bn • In a State of the Nations Address (SONA) in parliament on Tuesday, the Ghana President of Ghana stated that he expects the GDP growth in 2021 to GDP -1.1% rebound by 5% y/y. Ghana’s growth was estimated at 0.9% in 2020, amid Covid-19 pandemic. Inflation 10.3% • The Bank of Ghana yesterday (11/03/2021), in a circular addressed to MPR 14.5% banks, specialized deposit-taking institutions and the public, reiterated External Reserves ($) 8.6bn the consequences of issuing dud cheques. Senegal Gambia GDP 0.7% • The Gambia's Central Bank issued a 91-day, 184-day, and 364-day Inflation 1.7% treasury bills( Sukuk-Al-Salaam Bills) to investors. Ivo ry C o ast • Stop rates closed at 5.3%, 2.09% and 5.3% for the 91-day, 184-day and GDP 0.7% 364-day bills, respectively. Inflation 2.3% Nigeria M ali • The Managing Director of the Nigeria Export-Import Bank (NEXIM Bank), GDP -0.7% Mr Aba Belllo, stated that the solid minerals sector would increasingly Inflation 2.5% realise the benefits of NEXIM’s intervention over the next few years. Nigeria houses an endowment of over 34 solid minerals. Sources: Bloomberg, Central Bank of West African • In the past week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its terms States (BCEAO), Trading Economics, United Capital Research of trade report for FY-2020. • The report showed that total trade in merchandise declined by 10.4% in FY-2020. • Overall, Nigeria’s trade balance closed at a deficit of N7.3bn, its highest deficit since the last recession in 2016. • Data from the Nigeria Interbank Settlement System (NIBBS) showed that the volume of transactions carried out on the electronic bill payment platform fell 8.9% m/m to 92,571 in February 2021, from 101,578 in January 2021. • United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA) released FY-2020 earnings. Notably, Gross earnings grew by 10.8% to N620.4bn from N559.8bn and Profit after tax rose remarkably by 27.7% y/y to N113.8bn compared to N89.1bn recorded at the end of 2019. • However, The Bank paid a final dividend of N0.52 for the year end FY- 2020, down 35% from N0.80 paid in FY-2019. • Ahead of listing, The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) has completed its demutualization process with SEC and CAC’s approval. • Under the demutualization plan, a new operating holding company, the Nigerian Exchange Group plc ‘NGX Group’ would exist as the parent company of the NSE going forward. 1 Regional Macroeconomic Update Francophone West Africa (WAEMU) Looking Forward • Q4-2020 Kenya PPI Ivory Coast • Q4-2020 Rwanda GDP Report—12 Mar • Ivory coast’s ruling party retained its parliamentary majority in elections held last weekend, bolstering President Alassane Ouattara’s hold on East Africa power five months after securing a third term in the presidential elections. Kenya • The ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace Party (RHDP) GDP -1.1% won 137 out of 247 seats. Inflation 5.8% • On a bleak update, the Ivory Coast Prime Minister Hamed Bakayoko died on Wednesday (10/03/2021) in Germany of cancer at age 56. MPR 7.0% • The Ivorian President, Alassane Ouattara had already named his close External Reserves ($) 7.6bn confidant and chief of staff, Patrick Achi, as interim prime minister, two days before Bakayoko’s death. Uganda GDP -2.2% Senegal Inflation 3.8% • In Senegal, protests have continued for the second week running following the arrest of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko last week. MPR 7.0% External Reserves ($) 3.5bn T anzania East Africa GDP 4.5% Rwanda Inflation 3.3% • The All-Rwanda sub-index inflation rate slowed to 2.2% y/y in February MPR 5.0% from 3.5% y/y in January – the lowest reading since mid-2019. • Rwanda has vaccinated at least 228,854 people countrywide against External Reserves ($) 5.0bn coronavirus almost a week since it launched the exercise. M o zambique • African Development Bank Provides $1.0mn for Ai-Based National GDP -2.4% Customer Management Systems in Ghana, Rwanda and Zambia Inflation 5.1% Uganda MPR 16.3% • Uganda consumer price inflation ticked higher to 3.8% y/y in February, External Reserves ($) 3.9bn up 0.1 ppt from January, on rising core and food price inflation. • Meanwhile, the energy, fuels and utilities sub-index remained in Sources: Bloomberg, Trading Economics, United deflationary territory due to a decline in charcoal price and lower Capital Research domestic pump price. • Uganda’s fiscal deficit for January exceeded the budgeted amount by 57.1%, as tax revenues fell and foreign aid dried up in the period surrounding turbulent elections. • More than 300 individuals from different priority groups received the first dose of Covid-19 vaccine as Uganda started the long-awaited vaccination drive Kenya • S&P downgraded Kenya’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings to B from B+ as fiscal and external pressures continue to intensify. • In Kenya, private sector activity growth slumped to an 8-month low with PMI dropping to 50.9 points in February from 52.3 points in January as weak cashflow weighed on business and household spending 2 Regional Macroeconomic Update Southern Africa Looking Forward South Africa • Angola Feb CPI—16 Mar • On Thursday, Manufacturing data for January was released showing that seasonally adjusted manufacturing production rose by a marginal Southern Africa 0.5% m/m but declined 34.0% y/y. S/ A frica We note that last week, manufacturing PMI data for February was • GDP -4.1% released and poses possibility of a decent rebound in manufacturing activities in February. Inflation 3.2% • Activities in the mining sector continues to remain soft as mining output MPR 3.5% fell by 6.2% y/y in January marking the 11th consecutive month of External Reserves ($) 53.8bn decline in overall industry production. A ngo la • In more economic data, trade data for Q4-2020 showed a decline in current account surplus albeit still one of the largest current account GDP -5.8% surpluses on record. The current account surplus slipped to R197.8bn in Inflation 24.4% Q4-2020 from R294.4bn in Q3-2020. This translates to 3.7% of South- MPR 15.5% Africa’s GDP from 5.9% in Q3-2020. External Reserves ($) 8.8bn • The RMB/BER Business Confidence Index slipped to 35 points in Q1-2020 as sentiments across the core five sectors surveyed deteriorated. Z ambia • South Africa recorded real GDP contraction of -4.1% y/y during Q4-2020 GDP -2.6% with only three sectors (Agriculture, Personal Services & Government Services), recording higher output in Q4-2020 relative to Q4-2019. Inflation 22.2% Zimbabwe MPR 8.5% • Zimbabwe consumer price inflation slowed to 321.6% y/y in Feb-2020 but External Reserves ($) 1.2bn remains at very distressing levels. • The Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe (MCAZ) has approved the Z imbabwe use of four vaccines in Zimbabwe. GDP -6.5% • MCAZ admonished companies who intend to purchase vaccines to purchase from the registered names. Approved vaccines includes Inflation 321.6% Sinopharm and Sinovac from China, Covaxin from India, and Russia's Sputnik V. MPR 40.0% Sources: Bloomberg, United Capital Research Angola • The Angolan Development Bank (ADB) has announced a grant of AKZ2.2bn to eight companies in Huambo province, as part of the Economic Relief Programme. • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lauded Angola’s economic reform efforts stating the economy is poised to rebound from recession in 2021, growing by 3.2%, while also improving its budget deficit from 2.8% of GDP to 0.1% this year. Mozambique • On Thursday, February inflation data for Mozambique was released as inflation surged to a 3-year high of 5.1% driven by jump in prices of Food, Electricity and Cooking gas. Zambia • The African Development Bank (AfDB) has approved a grant of $1.0mn for AI-enabled systems to process customer complaints on behalf of the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission of Zambia alongside the national banks of Rwanda and Ghana. 3 Regional Macroeconomic Update Central Africa (CEMAC & Congo DRC) Central Africa C amero o n Cameroon GDP -1.1% • Cameroon’s Trade deficit improved slightly to XAF1,375.0bn compared Inflation 2.4% with the XAF1,464.2bn deficit recorded in 2019, according to the MPR 3.3% National Institute of Statistics (INS). C had • To reduce import dependence, the government has begun the implementation of an import-substitution policy, which is mapped out in GDP 2.4% the 2020-2030 National Development Strategy (SND30). Inflation 4.5% • According to the Professional Association of Credit Institutions of MPR 3.3% Cameroon (Apeccam), the volume of loans granted to businesses and Gabo n individuals increased by 6.7% y/y in 2020, despite the pandemic. Bad GDP 3.4% debts, however, rose from 15.8% in 2019 to 16.6% in 2020.