A New Stalemate: Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 196 The Influence of South Sudan’s Master thesis in Sustainable Development Independence on the Nile Basin’s Water Politics A New Stalemate: The Influence of South Sudan’s Jon Roozenbeek Independence on the Nile Basin’s Water Politics Jon Roozenbeek Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences Master Thesis E, in Sustainable Development, 15 credits Printed at Department of Earth Sciences, Master’s Thesis Geotryckeriet, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 2014. E, 15 credits Examensarbete i Hållbar Utveckling 196 Master thesis in Sustainable Development A New Stalemate: The Influence of South Sudan’s Independence on the Nile Basin’s Water Politics Jon Roozenbeek Supervisor: Ashok Swain Evaluator: Eva Friman Master thesis in Sustainable Development Uppsala University Department of Earth Sciences Content 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 6 1.1. Research Aim .................................................................................................................. 6 1.2. Purpose ............................................................................................................................ 6 1.3. Methods ........................................................................................................................... 6 1.4. Case Selection ................................................................................................................. 7 1.5. Limitations ...................................................................................................................... 8 2. Background ...................................................................................................... 9 2.1. Shared River Systems ...................................................................................................... 9 2.2. The Nile Conflict ........................................................................................................... 12 2.2.1. Geographical and Hydrological Properties of the Nile .......................................... 12 2.2.2. The Historic Struggle ............................................................................................. 13 2.3. The Case of Sudan ......................................................................................................... 15 2.3.1 A History of Sudan .................................................................................................. 15 2.3.2 Sudan and the Nile .................................................................................................. 17 3. Sudan’s Current Situation ............................................................................ 20 3.1. The Peaceful Years 2005-2013 ..................................................................................... 20 3.2. A Return to Conflict 2013 - ........................................................................................... 21 4. Discussion ....................................................................................................... 23 4.1. Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 23 4.2. Future Scenarios ............................................................................................................ 26 4.2.1. Climate Change ...................................................................................................... 26 4.2.2. Violent Conflict ...................................................................................................... 26 4.2.3. Political Conflict .................................................................................................... 27 4.2.4. Interstate Cooperation ............................................................................................ 28 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 29 6. Acknowledgements ........................................................................................ 30 7. References ...................................................................................................... 31 2 A New Stalemate: The Influence of South Sudan’s Independence on the Nile Basin’s Water Politics JON ROOZENBEEK Roozenbeek, J., 2014: A New Stalemate: The Influence of South Sudan’s Independence on the Nile Basin’s Water Politics. Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, 2014, 15 ECTS Abstract: This study assesses how South Sudan’s 2011 vote for independence has influenced the Nile Basin’s debate over water rights. Although it initially seemed that South Sudan was aligning itself with the upstream riparian states such as Ethiopia and Uganda, effectively leaving Egypt and Sudan as the only opponents to a Cooperative Framework Agreement and redefining so-called ‘historic water rights’, the escalation of the South Sudanese internal conflict between President Salva Kiir and ex-Vice-President Riek Machar changed this situation entirely. The conflict has reached a new stalemate, with Egypt giving military support to Salva Kiir in his fight against Machar, thus befriending South Sudan and strengthening its position in the Nile Basin, and Ethiopia hesitating to offer support and effectively losing South Sudan as a newly found ally. Currently, a Cooperative Framework Agreement is farther away from being signed than it was before South Sudan’s conflict escalated: South Sudan is no longer in any position to sign or implement agreements and policies regarding water issues, which allowed Egypt to reassert its dominant position in the debate. This study foresees three different possible future scenarios: one of perpetuated violent conflict, one of political conflict and one of increased interstate political cooperation. Keywords: South Sudan, Nile, Water Politics, Peace and Conflict, Sustainable Development Jon Roozenbeek, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden 3 A New Stalemate: The Influence of South Sudan’s Independence on the Nile Basin’s Water Politics JON ROOZENBEEK Roozenbeek, J., 2014: A New Stalemate: The Influence of South Sudan’s Independence on the Nile Basin’s Water Politics Master thesis in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, 2014, pp. 33, 15 ECTS Summary: This study investigates how South Sudan’s 2011 independence influenced the region’s ongoing conFlict over the use oF the River Nile. While it initially seemed that South Sudan would help Ethiopia and other upstream Nile countries (Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, DRC) to bring about a new agreement to replace the old one From 1959, which gave Egypt and Sudan a monopoly over the Nile, an escalation oF ethnic tensions in South Sudan reversed this process, essentially bringing about a new stalemate, with Egypt and South Sudan on one side and Ethiopia, Sudan and other upstream states on the other. This stalemate will most likely remain at least until Ethiopia has Finished constructing the Renaissance dam on the Blue Nile, which was endorsed by Sudan and initially also South Sudan, but is Fiercely opposed by Egypt, which Fears that the dam will afFect its water availability. Construction oF this dam is expected to be Finished in 2017, and will generate a lot oF electricity as well as provide the opportunity For irrigation projects. The stalemate that has arisen, however, will continue to complicate every attempt at negotiation over the Nile in the near Future. Keywords: South Sudan, Nile, Water Politics, Peace and Conflict, Sustainable Development Jon Roozenbeek, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, SE- 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden 4 1. Introduction This study will focus on the changes that have taken place in the Nile Basin in terms of water 1.1. Research Aim security after South Sudanese independence. The The Republic of South Sudan is the world’s objective of this study is therefore to form a youngest nation. It became independent from Sudan comprehensive and complete overview of the after a referendum held in January 2011 current situation, and sketch a few informed (Government of South Sudan, 2014a), and the possible future scenarios. To achieve this, it is first newly formed country took on the difficult necessary to gain insight into scientific theories challenge of building a nation-state after decades of behind shared river systems and the conflicts that civil war. often arise in them. Furthermore, it is wise to As with any new country in this position, South provide the reader with a comprehensive history of Sudan is facing numerous political, economic, the Nile conflict, as well as Sudan itself. diplomatic, environmental and popular challenges. According to the United Nations, it is one of the Subsequently, this study will discuss the different least developed countries in the world (United policies that have been proposed and implemented Nations, 2013). Poverty is prevalent in every region in the Nile Basin and (South) Sudan over the past of the country, economic development is proving few decades and to which degree they are still slow and tedious, and tensions among the country’s functioning. Then, it will discuss the water policies various ethnic groups remain extremely implemented by the government of South Sudan problematic, as was made clear by the recent after 2011, as well as future policy proposals. outbursts of violence between armed groups