Proliferation Prevention Program Workshop on South Korea as a Responsible Nuclear Supplier ABOUT THE WORKSHOP | Seoul, South Korea, February 18, 2013 Participating Scholars he Center for Strategic and Interna- Ttional Studies and the Asan Institute Dr. Emma Belcher for Policy Studies cohosted a workshop on “Korea as a Responsible Nuclear Supplier” Dr. Jor-shan Choi on February 18, 2013, at the Asan Insti- tute in Seoul. Experts from government, Dr. Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress academia, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and industry participated under Dr. Robert Gallucci Chatham House rules. Discussion focused on the opportunities and challenges the Dr. Alan Hanson Republic of Korea (ROK) will face as a new PNNL’s Gretchen Hund speaking on corporate nuclear exporter. For the past 30 years, South responsibilities. Mr. Mark Hibbs Korea has worked hard to acquire the capa- bilities to build its own nuclear power reactors, and in 2009, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ms. Gretchen Hund chose a South Korean consortium led by KEPCO to build four APR-1400 reactors at Baraka. In light of these developments, the workshop sought to define the responsibilities that accompany Dr. Jun Bong-Geun nuclear supply and to explore how to carry out such responsibilities in practice. Dr. Lee Jong-Ho The discussion paper (Appendix A) suggested definitions of responsible nuclear supply. The workshop agenda (Appendix B) divided discussion into four main areas: capacity Dr. Lee Kun Jai issues that the South Korean nuclear industry will experience at home; trends in inter- national nuclear supply; building export capacity in Korea; and elements of responsible Dr. Steven Miller nuclear supply. These are discussed in turn below. Ms. Jane Nakano This meeting was the second in a series of three workshops on new nuclear suppliers held as part of the Sustainable Nuclear Futures Project of the Proliferation Prevention Program Amb. Park Robyug at CSIS. The Proliferation Prevention Program aims to develop new tools for slowing proliferation, identify next steps in arms control, and help illuminate the path toward a Dr. Seo Jong Tae sustainable and safe nuclear future. The Sustainable Nuclear Futures Project was made possible by the generous support of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Dr. Shin Chang-Hoon The Asan Institute is an independent, nonpartisan think tank with the mandate to undertake Ms. Sharon Squassoni policy-relevant research to foster domestic, regional, and international environments that are conducive to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and Korean reunification. Dr. Yim Man-Sung Dr. Yoo Ho Sik Key Conclusions ■ South Korea, as a relatively new nuclear supplier, has both an opportunity and a responsibility to show that it can export nuclear power safely and securely. The ROK-UAE deal for four AP-1400 reactors at Barakah will be important for setting norms. ■ With ambitious goals for exports and domestic construction, South Korea’s human resources will be strained for the next several years. Aging and retirement of the first-generation workforce will lead to long-term human resource and knowledge transfer problems. ■ Unilateral, bilateral, multilateral, and vendor-level approaches are necessary for “responsible” nuclear supply. Those on the front line—suppliers—should take initiative. BacKGROUND OF THE SOUTH KOREAN NUCLEAR EXPORT REGIME Nuclear energy and the nuclear industry are among the most heavily regulated enterprises in the world. Domestic material control and accounting and international safeguards are in place to deter the diversion of nuclear energy materials, equipment, and technology to military uses. In addition to domestic regulations, export controls are enforced by countries and policies are harmonized among countries to ensure Workshop on Korea as a Responsible Nuclear Supplier, Seoul, South Korea, standards of behavior. In the case of South Korea, agencies February 18, 2013. such as the Korea Strategic Trade Institute (KOSTI) and the Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control the nuclear export market. With plans to export more than 80 (KINAC) are responsible for dual-use and trigger list export nuclear power plants through 2030, South Korea is positioning control items. Until now, the Nuclear Safety and Security itself to be the world’s third-largest nuclear supplier, aiming to cap- Commission (NSSC) had the final authority to approve or ture some 20 percent of the market. With these plans, South Korea reject export license applications. According to the Presidential could set the stage for responsible nuclear supply. Particularly in Transition Committee’s plan, the NSSC will be moved to a post-Fukushima environment, there is an incentive for South the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Science, ICT and Future Korea to be seen by potential customers as a responsible supplier Planning, reportedly because the NSSC was so isolated that no with the highest attention to standards of safety and security, with officials wanted to work there and because it was ineffective in enforcing safety regulation. Nuclear promotion is expected to a focus on controlling goods throughout the supply chain. be moved elsewhere under the Park Geun-hye administration’s CAPacITY ISSUES FOR DOMESTIC KOREAN reshuffling of agencies. NUCLEAR INDUSTRY The reorganization under the new ROK administration raises Participants in the workshop began by exploring the capacity questions about the consistency of ROK nuclear regulatory issues for domestic new build in South Korea. The Long-Term agencies and the predictability of the regulatory regime. Ef- National Energy Plan of the ROK establishes a goal of 59 per- forts apparently are underway to maintain the independence cent of total electricity generation for nuclear energy (equal to of the regulatory agency under the new administration. Even 40 total reactors) by 2030. At the same time, the contract that in a perfect regime, some gaps are likely to remain, whether in the KEPCO consortium won in 2009 to build four APR-1400 safety, security, safeguards, or even independence of domestic nuclear power reactors in the UAE will place increasing de- regulation. In addition, the drive to continually reduce the risks mands on Korean nuclear vendors. Korean industry had been of nuclear energy requires continual readjustments to technical building two nuclear power plants per year; this has doubled to and political developments. four per year with the UAE contract. By 2015, human resource The 2011 Fukushima accident prompted thinking about the demand for the UAE project will reach roughly 11,000 personnel. limits of sovereignty and “business as usual” approaches and Current plans are to train personnel and then rotate them from raised questions generally about the governance of nuclear domestic projects to foreign projects as needed. This is just the energy. Individual countries have examined their own imple- beginning of the human resource draw for UAE projects, however, mentation of safety and security standards, but industry groups since the first contract is only for four reactors, and the UAE antici- and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are also pates building ten reactors in total. thinking about how to improve implementation and/or raise standards. This suggests that efforts to strengthen gover- Moreover, Korea’s nuclear industry is currently at a turning point. nance need to target all levels of the supply chain—industry/ The aging and retirement of the first-generation workforce will lead vendors, importing states, governments, intra-government to long-term human resource and knowledge transfer problems, relationships, and international organizations. especially since the younger generation is, anecdotally, avoiding the nuclear industry. While the Fukushima accident lowered the demand Where does South Korea fit in? From the time that utilities for nuclear power, it also lowered the youth’s interest in nuclear first switched on electricity from the Kori-1 nuclear power plant in 1978, South Korea has worked hard at developing its careers. To counteract these trends, several programs have been own nuclear technology and manufacturing capabilities to in- implemented to train nuclear workers, such as the KEPCO Interna- crease the domestic content of its nuclear power plants. It is an tional Nuclear Graduate School (KINGS), and also to attract new advanced nuclear technology state, but a relative newcomer to talent to the nuclear field. center for strategic and international studies | proliferation prevention program Human capacity issues loom large for the ROK. Even before the nuclear power plants is “outrageous.” One participant suggest- UAE deal, industrial companies were already having difficulty ed that South Korea could use the steam generator replace- meeting capacity. Also, recent scandals involving spare parts have ment market in the United States to expand the versatility of diminished public acceptance of nuclear energy, which could ROK nuclear export capabilities. affect the current ROK five-year energy plan under revision and The final part of the discussion drew comparisons between government support for addressing human resource issues. the ROK-UAE deal and the U.S.-ROK nuclear relationship Nuclear safety is a prerequisite for success both at home and in the 1970s. The UAE’s safety framework is supported by abroad. As Korea’s nuclear program has advanced, so has exchanges with the ROK, a relationship that is somewhat nuclear safety regulation. When the