DEMAND ANALYSIS COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LAND , GOONDIWINDI Client: Goondiwindi Regional Council Prepared by: ABN 59 111 542 673 Suite 31, Level 4 50-56 Sanders Street UPPER MT GRAVATT, QLD, 4122 Ph: (07) 3422 2011 Fax: (07) 3422 0899 December 2010 10030 Rev 0 CONTENTS SUMMARY............................................................................................................ IV 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose of Report ........................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Methodology................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Report Structure.......................................................................................................................... 3 2 GOONDIWINDI REGION OVERVIEW ............................................................ 4 2.1 Regional Context.......................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Goondiwindi Regional Council.................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Overview of Existing Planning Schemes ..................................................................................... 6 2.3.1 Goondiwindi Town Planning Scheme .......................................................................................6 2.3.2 Waggamba Shire Council Planning Scheme..............................................................................7 2.3.3 Inglewood Shire Council Planning Scheme...............................................................................7 2.4 Historical population growth (by former LGA boundaries)..................................................... 12 2.5 Future population growth – Goondiwindi catchment ............................................................... 12 2.5.1 Goondiwindi regional catchment defined ................................................................................ 12 2.5.2 Population and household projections...................................................................................... 13 2.6 Socio-economic Characteristics................................................................................................. 16 2.7 Employment............................................................................................................................... 19 2.7.1 Industry of Occupation as at 2006 (place of work)................................................................... 19 2.7.2 Employment Trends Since 1996 (place of residence)............................................................... 21 2.7.3 Job and labour force containment............................................................................................ 22 2.8 Summary and Implications........................................................................................................ 24 3 RETAIL AND COMMERCIAL COMPOSITION............................................. 25 3.1 Retail and Commercial Composition ........................................................................................ 25 3.1.1 ANZSIC Classification............................................................................................................ 25 3.1.2 Commodity Group Classification ............................................................................................ 28 3.1.3 Goondiwindi’s centre function ................................................................................................ 29 3.2 Commercial Land Supply.......................................................................................................... 29 3.2.1 Vacant Land ........................................................................................................................... 30 3.2.2 Underdeveloped Land ............................................................................................................. 31 3.3 Take Up of Commercial Land................................................................................................... 31 Goondiwindi RC Land Demand Assessment 10030 Rev 0 20 December 2010 i 3.3.1 Commercial and Retail Development Applications.................................................................. 33 3.3.2 Commercial Land Sales Activity............................................................................................. 33 3.4 Summary.................................................................................................................................... 34 4 INDUSTRIAL LAND USE PROFILE ............................................................. 36 4.1 Industrial Composition .............................................................................................................. 36 4.2 Industrial Land Supply.............................................................................................................. 38 4.2.1 Vacant Land ........................................................................................................................... 40 4.2.2 Underdeveloped Land ............................................................................................................. 41 4.2.3 Potential constraints................................................................................................................ 41 4.2.4 Industrial activities in the Mixed Use zone.............................................................................. 42 4.3 Industrial Development Applications........................................................................................ 42 4.4 Historic Absorption Rates ......................................................................................................... 42 4.5 Summary and implications........................................................................................................ 48 5 INDUSTRY AND STAKEHOLDER DISCUSSIONS...................................... 50 5.1 Business and Stakeholder Consultation .................................................................................... 50 5.1.1 Business discussions ............................................................................................................... 50 5.1.2 Discussions with Property Agents ........................................................................................... 52 5.1.3 Other Stakeholder Discussions................................................................................................ 53 5.2 Common topics and issues raised .............................................................................................. 54 5.2.1 Accessibility............................................................................................................................ 54 5.2.2 Supply chains.......................................................................................................................... 55 5.2.3 Red tape and delay.................................................................................................................. 56 5.3 Other factors influencing future demand.................................................................................. 56 6 FUTURE COMMERCIAL LAND DEMAND................................................... 58 6.1 Retail trends in Regional Australia........................................................................................... 58 6.2 Implications of population growth for Retail Spending and Retail Provision.......................... 60 6.2.1 Growth in Retail Spending Potential ....................................................................................... 60 6.2.2 Additional Retail Floorspace................................................................................................... 62 6.3 Theoretically Supportable Commercial Floorspace ................................................................. 64 6.4 Summary and implications........................................................................................................ 67 7 FUTURE INDUSTRIAL LAND DEMAND...................................................... 68 7.1 Population Based Demand......................................................................................................... 68 Goondiwindi RC Land Demand Assessment 10030 Rev 0 20 December 2010 ii 7.2 Employment Based Demand...................................................................................................... 69 7.3 Historic Sales Based Demand.................................................................................................... 70 7.4 Summary and implications........................................................................................................ 71 8 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE–LAND DEMAND AND EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................................ 72 8.1 Future land supply and demand................................................................................................ 72 8.1.1 Commercial ............................................................................................................................ 72 8.1.2 Industrial ................................................................................................................................ 74 8.2 Future commercial and industrial