FILE COPY ONLY Do Not Remove FDCD • = ERS JAMAICA, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, . LEEWARD ISLANDS, WINDWARD ISLANDS, BARBADOS, AND BRITISH GUIANA Projected Levels of Demand, Supply, and Imports of Agricultural Products to 197 5 FOREIGN REGIONAL ANALYSIS DIVISION ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE 90 so 40 CARIBBEAN AREA 0 200 400 MILES U N T E D I I I I 0 200. 400 KILOMETERS 35 S T A T E s ' Blll'mucla 30 T I c GULF OF A T L A N MEXICO 25 N 0 c E A )' Caicos p~. c:J ..; ,, Turks G R e 20 ,.,. ~0 ~~ 1- % Caymanislands ~ PUERTO ft.. ~"#" ,f -.-~ .p RICO -4~- ,_,. ,... /II "7. c c:::/ ~ ··so ~ 'll cl' ~ '>'" • Barbuda .., - ,. ....i>o. ....• il' JAMA~aston ._ tu-'a''..,..,\s~ ., Antigua • ./ ., s,t. ~ ., ... ou .....,.,,.. cJl: Guadeloupe 'i) Dominica 1.5 N s E A ~~Martinique~ lfi ...... .... • Q .., , St.Luc•ao "' " .;- St. Vincent 0 Ba~dos ~ ,_ GRENADINE .: ~ ISLANDS o" Grenada i t.•• .r· ( 10 j ~\. r VENEZUELA ( '··-.. - .. , r· ... \.-··-··"") (_ BRITISH ( '\-·· GUIANA •• PACIFIC .' .... ~-·. ....... .r·-'··_/ '"'I'.. ~r.. SURINAM COLOMBIA "' J : .,, . I l .. ~ \ \.~c-··{_,. ...;· .........<\ ,, r.. ' .. r·· .. ,.--··- "·\ _,... .. ....;v ,_\ ~~, ___ ...... OCEAN ··......... r. ...... 0 \.. .. _, .., .. 0 8 R A z L \'\ '-. ECUADOR ! .. " ~ 85 •/ 75 1"1 65 60 55 .. _.~._,...., 70! U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. ERS 2971-64(6) ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE This report was published in Israel with Public Law 480 (104a) local currency funds made available through the Foreign Agricultural Service, U.s. Department of Agriculture Published for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service by the Israel Program for Scientific Translations Printed in Jerusalem by S. Monson CONTENTS Page Foreword 1 PART ONE: Introduction and Summary 3 Chapter 1 Introduction .... 3 2 Summary of Results 9 PART TWO: Growth of the Economies 15 1 Two Projections of the Population of the West Indies Between 1965 and 1975 ........................ 15 2 The Economic Growth of Jamaica 1950 through 1960 and 1965, 19 7 0 and 1 9 7 5 . 22 3 Growth of the Economy of Trinidad and Tobago . 27 4 Growth of the Economy of the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands and Barbados .................. 36 5 Long- Term Growth of British Guiana . 40 Explanatory Note for Part Two: List of Industries Included in Each Sector . 51 PART THREE: The Projection of Demand 55 1 Demand and Income . 55 2 Food E~penditure in Jamaica in 1958: Survey Results 59 3 Income Elasticities of Demand in Jamaica ..... 62 4 Income Elasticities of Demand in Other West Indian Territories 68 5 Projections of Final Demands . 72 PART FOUR: Projections of Supply 75 1 Land Utilisation in the West Indies 75 2 Scale of Production of Agricultural Commodities 79 3 The Effect of Changes in Intensity of Production on Total Supply 85 4 The Estimation of Total Locally Produced Supplies of Commodities 88 5 Factors Influencing Yields and Production Economics and Farm Organisation ................ 90 6 Factors Influencing Yields and Production Physical and Technical . 106 iii Chapter Page PART FIVE: Reconciliation 116 1 Reconciliation of Demand and Supply and Import Demand 116 Appendix I: Note on Import Data ..... 123 II: Main Sources and References 125 III: Tables 1-23 ........ 128 iv FOREWORD The Study This report is the result of a contract study between the Foreign Agricultural Service, United States Department of Agriculture, and the Institute of Social and Economic Re­ search, University College of the West Indies, Jamaica. The contract was administered by the Western Hemisphere Branch, Regional Analysis Division, Economic Research Service of the Department. The major objective of the study was to obtain a rational projection of the import de­ mand of the West Indies Federation by 1965 and 1975 for specified and other agricultural products. The contract also specified four subsidiary objectives: (1} Develop long-range projections for the economy, including forecasts of gross national income, etc; (2} esti­ mate aggregate demand for the specified products in 1965 and 1975; (3} determine the magnitude of domestic supplies of these products by 1965 and 1975; and (4} ascertain the extent of import demand for these products by 1965 and 1975 on the basis of long-term supply-and -demand relationships. Analysis was required for the following products: Wheat and wheat flour; corn; rice; other grains, such as oats and barley; sugar and its products; vegetables, including "Irish" potatoes; deciduous fruits, such as apples and pears; citrus fruit; bananas; meat, including poultry; eggs; dairy products; fats and oils; coffee; cocoa; tobacco; and cotton. In addition, other commodities were to be covered if the need was revealed as the study developed. The contract was entered into in May 1960 with the final report to be submitted in a form suitable for publication in 30 months. At the time the study was undertaken the area covered was the newly formed West Indies Federation which was slated to become a nation within the British Commonwealth. Subsequently, the Federation disbanded with Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago becoming independent, British Guiana scheduled for independence, and Barbados and the Windward Islands (Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia and Dominica} and the Leeward Islands (Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, and Montserrat} remaining as British Dependencies. The area under study represents a small but important and rapidly growing market for U.S. agricultural exports. Such exports totalled $20.7 million in 1958 and reached $30.5 million in 1962, an increase of nearly 50 percent. U.S. agricultural exports to the area in 1962 represented 7 percent of the total for Latin America. 1 Research Team H. D. Huggins, Director E. Nash, University of Wales, Aberystwyth, Visiting Adviser G. C. Abott D. Macfarlane E. Armstrong C. 0' Loughlin D. Harris L. Taylor A. Kundu C. Y. Thomas Study Report The views expressed and the accuracy of analysis in this report are those of the Insti­ tute, and do not necessarily reflect concurrence by the United States Department of Agri­ culture. The published report is essentially in the form that it was submitted, editing having been done by the Department under an understanding with the Institute that only substantive changes would be submitted for their review. The final report was received in December 1962. However, it was not accepted until December 1963 pending receipt of working papers and the required analysis on cotton. Extensive editing of the final report was required due to numerous inconsistencies, large­ ly statistical. This problem apparently stemmed in part from the report's being largely a summary of 18 working papers by various research team members. The final report content met major and subsidiary study objectives and included required product analyses. In editing, British spelling and style have been retained. All tonnage figures are in long tons (2,240 pounds) unless otherwise designated. Generally, in the tables, N. A. means not available and dashes are used to indicate zero. Monetary conversion rates are J£1 = U.S.$2.80, and BWI$1 = U.S.$0.583. 2 PROJECTED LEVELS OF DEMAND, SUPPLY, AND IMPORTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS OF JAMAICA, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, LEEWARD ISLANDS, WINDWARD ISLANDS, BARBADOS, AND BRITISH GUIANA, TO 1975 Part One INTRODUCI'ION AND SUMMARY Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION Purpose of study The purpose of this study is to project the long term supply of and demand and import demand for agricultural commodities in the West Indies. We have made projections of demand and supply for sugar and sugar products, rice, bananas, citrus fruits, root crops, vegetables, corn and cornmeal, pulses, beef, mutton, pork, goat mutton, poultry meat, eggs, milk, fats and oils, and cotton. We have projected demand only for wheat and wheat flour, apples, pears and grapes, tinned and salted meat, tinned fruit and vegetables and cheese (which commodities are not produced in any important quantities in the West Indies) and supply only of cocoa, coffee and tobacco products for which demand is small or for which appropriate demand data were not available. Having made separate projections of demand based on estimated income elasticities, income and population growth, and projections of supply based on expected changes in acreages and yields, we have arrived at projections of import demand and amounts avail­ able for export. Period of study The projections relate to the years 1965, 1970, and 1975. The base year chosen for most purposes was 1958, the year for which the most comprehensive data were available. It should be emphasised that this study does not purport to make short term projections, the techniques for which are rather different than those for long term projections. Area covered The area which we have covered in this study includes Jamaica; Trinidad and Tobago; the Leeward Islands (Antigua, St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla, and Montserrat), Windward Islands (Grenada, St. Vincent, St. Lucia, and Dominica) and Barbados; and British Guiana. At all stages of the study we have considered these as four separate territories. When this study was started in 1960, the first three of these territories were formed into a federation. In 1961 Jamaica and then Trinidad and Tobago elected to withdraw from this federation. At the present time the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands and Barbados are endeavouring to form a federation of those islands of the British Lesser Antilles. 1/ 1__/ The federation had not been formed at the time this publication goes to press. 3 When we refer to the West Indies, we include all four territories under review. It is considered, however, that as a national unit, the West Indies is now meaningless, and al­ though in some of our tables and charts we have aggregated the territorial data we have not made projections of main tables for the West Indies as one country.