View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Digital Library of the Tanzania Health Community THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA Volume XII National Bureau of Statistics Ministry of Planning, Economy and Empowerment Dar es Salaam December, 2006 D A R E S S A L A A M R E G I O N N K i n o n d o n i I l a l a Temek e 4 0 4 8 12 16 Ki l o m etres TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES...................................................................................................................................ii ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................................................. iii FOREWORD.........................................................................................................................................iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................v CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Population Projections......................................................................................................... 1 1.3 The Population Projection Software .................................................................................... 2 CHAPTER TWO: PROJECTION ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................................. 4 2.1 Base Population.................................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Mortality Assumptions ......................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Fertility Assumptions........................................................................................................... 6 2.4 Migration Assumptions........................................................................................................ 7 2.5 HIV/AIDS Assumptions....................................................................................................... 8 CHAPTER THREE: PROJECTIONS................................................................................................. 10 3.1 Introduction........................................................................................................................ 10 3.2 Highlights of Population Projections Results for Dar es Salaam....................................... 10 3.2.1 Population Growth............................................................................................................ 10 3.2.2 Life Expectancy at Birth.................................................................................................... 10 3.2.3 Infant and Under five Mortality ......................................................................................... 10 3.2.4 Total Fertility Rate (TFR).................................................................................................. 10 3.3 Detailed Projections ......................................................................................................... 10 Annex: Explanatory Notes on Population Analysis Spreadsheets (PAS) ................................ 129 References....................................................................................................................................... 130 i LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Dar es Salaam Region Mortality Assumptions - Life Expectancy at Birth (2002 – 2025) ....... 6 Table 2: Dar es Salaam Region Fertility (TFR) Assumptions (2002 - 2025)......................................... 7 Table 3: Summary of Demographic Indicators.................................................................................... 11 Table 4: Regional Population in Single Years by Sex and Place of Residence.................................. 12 Table 5: Regional Population in Age Group by Sex and Place of Residence..................................... 58 Table 6: Regional Total Population by Sex and Place of Residence.................................................. 69 Table 7: District Total Population by Sex ............................................................................................ 70 Table 8: District Population in Single Year by Sex.............................................................................. 71 Table 9: District Population in Age Group by Sex............................................................................. 117 ii ABBREVIATIONS AIDS Acquired ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome AIM AIDS Impact Model ARV Anti-Retroviral ASDR Age Specific Dearth Rate ASFR Age Specific Fertility Rate CBR Crude Birth Rate CDR Crude Death Rate Demproj Demographic Projection Package EPP Epidemic Projection Package GR Growth Rate HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus IMR Infant Mortality Rate LE Life Expectancy at Birth MDG Millennium Development Goals MKUKUTA Mkakati wa Kukuza Uchumi na Kupunguza Umaskini Tanzania NRR Net Reproduction Rate NSGRP National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of Poverty PAS Population Analysis Spread Sheet PES Post Enumeration Survey STI Sexual Transmitted Infections TDHS Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey TFR Total Fertility Rate THIS Tanzania HIV/AIDS Indicator Survey U5MR Under Five Mortality Rate UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNHCR United Nations High Commission for Refugees USAID United States Agency for International Development ZPRP Zanzibar Poverty Reduction Plan iii FOREWORD This report presents a methodology and population projections for thefor the Dar es Salaam Region as well as its districts based on the 2002 Population and Housing Census data. The projection exercise was undertaken by the National Bureau of Statistics in collaboration with the Office of the Chief Government Statistician in Zanzibar as one of strategies of coordinating statistical activities in the country so as to avoid duplication of efforts in the production of official statistics. The results include population projections of Dar es Salaam Region and its districts aggregated by sex in single years and five-year age groups; and summary of some demographic indicators. A successful completion of these projections was made possible by joint efforts of a number of organizations and individuals, whose participation we would like to acknowledge with gratitude. In particular we wish to recognize UNFPA and USAID for providing financial support that enabled working sessions to be undertaken. It is noted that printing of this volume was supported by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). We would also like to thank experts from the higher learning institutions in the country for their valuable technical assistance. Finally, we would like to thank the whole National Team of Analysts: Mr. Cletus P.B. Mkai, Mr. A. M. Kaimu, Mr. S.M. Aboud, Ms. A. A. Chuwa, Mr. B. H. Amour, Mr. G. L. Ntimba, Prof M. Mbonile, Dr. I. Ngalinda and Dr. G. M. Naimani; and Ms. A. Chuma for typesetting the report. This team of analysts are particularly thanked for their commitment and active participation in the production of these projections. We welcome any comments regarding these projections and other publications on the 2002 Population and Housing Census. They should be channelled to the Director General, National Bureau of Statistics, P.O. Box 796, Dar es Salaam, e-mail [email protected], or to the Chief Government Statistician, P.O. Box 2321, Zanzibar, e-mail [email protected]. Mr. Cletus P. B. Mkai, Mr. Mohammed H. Rajab, Director General, Chief Government Statistician, National Bureau of Statistics, Office of The Chief Government Statistician, Dar es Salaam. Zanzibar. December, 2006 iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents population projections for the period 2003 to 2025 for Dar es Salaam Region. The projections were made using a Cohort Component Method (Spectrum System), whereby three components responsible for population change, namely: mortality, fertility and migration were projected separately as well as HIV/AIDS prevalence. The projected components were then applied to 2002 midyear base population in order to come up with the desired projections from 2003 to 2025. The report gives mortality, fertility, migration and HIV/AIDS assumptions, and shows Dar es Salaam’s demographic and socio-economic future trends. The results include estimated population by sex in single years and five-year age groups as well as some demographic indicators. Population growth for the period 2003 to 2025 shows a decrease in growth rates. The projections show that population growth rate will decrease from 1.99 percent in 2003 (with a population of 2,535,594) to 0.27 percent in 2025 (with a population of 3,055,456). Sex Ratio at birth is projected to increase slightly from 102 male per 100 females in 2003 to 103 male per 100 females in 2025. Mortality estimates show that Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is expected to decline for both sexes from 80 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 49 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2025. Under Five Mortality Rate (U5MR) for both sexes will also decline from 122 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2003 to 71 deaths per 1,000 live births in the year 2025. As expected, the mortality projected estimates further show that the life expectancy at birth for females is higher compared to that of males. Life expectancy at birth for Dar es Salaam