Global Warming: some back-of-the-envelope calculations C. Fabara and B. Hoeneisen Universidad San Francisco de Quito, 14 March 2005 Abstract We do several simple calculations and measurements in an effort to gain understanding of global warming and the carbon cycle. Some conclusions are interesting: (i) There has been global warming since the end of the “little ice age” around 1700. There is no statistically significant evidence of acceleration of global warming since 1940. (ii) The increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, beginning around 1940, accu- rately tracks the burning of fossil fuels. Burning all of the remaining economically viable reserves of oil, gas and coal over the next 150 years or so will approximately double the pre-industrial atmospheric concentration of CO2. The corresponding increase in the average tem- perature, due to the greenhouse effect, is quite uncertain: between 1.3 and 4.8K. This increase of temperature is (partially?) offset by the increase of aerosols and deforestation. (iii) Ice core samples indicate that the pre-historic CO2 concentration and temperature are well cor- related. We conclude that changes in the temperatures of the oceans are probably the cause of the changes of pre-historic atmospheric CO2 concentration. (iv) Data suggests that large volcanic explosions can trigger transitions from glacial to interglacial climates. (v) Most of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis in the Amazon basin returns to the atmosphere due to aerobic decay. arXiv:physics/0503119v1 [physics.ao-ph] 14 Mar 2005 1 Introduction We, two non-experts, present several “back-of-the-envelope” calculations and some simple measurements related to global warming and the carbon cycle. Our purpose is to understand which phenomena are important in determining the temperature of the Earth. 1 2 Data In this article we will use the following measured data.[1, 2] The power of the radiation of the Sun per square perpendicular meter above the atmosphere 2 1 is measured to be ISun = 1368W/m . This is the “solar constant”. Since the surface of the Earth is 4 times the surface of a disk of the same radius, the average incident solar power per square meter of the Earth’s surface is 1368/4 = 342W/m2. All fractions listed below refer to 342W/m2. The fraction of sun light that is reflected by the Earth is measured to be 0.31 (0.21 by clouds, 0.06 by air including dust and water vapor, and 0.04 by the ground). This is the “albedo” of the Earth. The remaining fraction (0.69) is absorbed by the Earth (168W/m2 by the surface, 48W/m2 by the troposphere (water vapor and aerosols), 10W/m2 by the stratosphere, and 10W/m2 by clouds). So, the net solar power absorbed by the Earth is 342 0.69 = 236W/m2 for average cloud coverage. · The infrared radiation of the Earth to space measured by satellites is 235W/m2 for average cloud coverage (88W/m2 by clouds, 126W/m2 by water 2 vapor and CO2, and 21W/m by the surface through the infrared atmospheric window). So, the incoming and outgoing energies balance to high accuracy and determine the temperature of the biosphere. The average temperature of the surface of the Earth is 288K= 15oC. The average temperature of the atmosphere is about 250K= 23oC. − 2 In cloud free conditions the average solar power absorbed is 286W/m , while the average emitted terrestrial radiation is 266W/m2. The correspond- ing numbers for average cloud cover are 236W/m2 and 235W/m2 as men- tioned before. Note that decreasing the cloud cover has a net heating effect. The Earth radiation spectrum measured from a satellite (Figure 1) shows that the infrared windows (λ = 8 to9µm and 10 to 13µm) radiate as a blackbody at the surface temperature, the CO2 absorption band (λ = 14 to 16µm) radiates at 215K (corresponding to the altitude of the tropopause at 12km), and the H2O bands (λ < 8µm and λ > 17µm) radiate at 260K (corresponding to an altitude of 5km). ≈ 1The power per unit area radiated by a black body at absolute temperature T is σT 4, −8 −2 −4 2 4 with σ = 5.67 10 Wm K . The power radiated by the Sun is P = 4πRSunσTSun. The power per· unit perpendicular area received by Earth (outside of the atmosphere) is 2 2 1368W/m = P/(4πRSun-Earth). From these equations we obtain the effective temperature of sun light: TSun = 5780K. 2 Figure 1: Radiation spectrum of the Earth as observed by a satellite over Africa.[3] Wavenumber is 1/λ. Blackbody spectra at several temperatures are also shown. Multiply the numbers on the vertical axis by π to obtain the radiation in 10−3W m−2(cm−1)−1 (with m2 now referring to the surface of the Earth instead of the satellite antenna). 3 3 A simple model Let us begin with a simple model. From observations we know that, to high accuracy, there is an equilibrium between incident solar power and radiated infrared power. Therefore 1 4 ǫvISun = ǫIRσT , (1) 4 2 where ISun = 1368W/m is the solar constant, ǫv is the fraction of incident sun light power that is absorbed by the Earth, i.e. it is the “emissivity in −8 −2 −4 the visible”, ǫIR is the emissivity in the infrared, σ =5.67 10 Wm K is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant, and T is the temperature× of the surface 1 of the Earth in degrees Kelvin. The factor 4 was explained in Section 2. We note that if ǫv = ǫIR the equilibrium temperature is 279K, quite close to the observed mean temperature of 288K. From the data presented in Section 2 we conclude that ǫv 0.69 for ≈ the Earth as a whole, ǫv 0.55 for areas covered by clouds (it varies from ≈ 0.6 for cirrus to 0.1 for cumulonimbus), ǫv 0.9 for cloudless ground, and ≈ ǫv 0.2 for snow. Because snow is mostly at high latitude we sometimes ≈ replace ǫv 0.1 for snow. ≈ From the data presented in Section 2 we estimate that ǫIR 0.605 for ≈ the Earth as a whole, ǫIR 0.56 for areas covered by clouds, ǫIR 0.69 for ≈ ≈ cloudless ground, and ǫIR 0.3 for snow. ≈ These “effective” emissivities are valid for the model of this Section, i.e. an Earth surface characterized by a single temperature, and includes the atmosphere with its greenhouse gases. The model is too crude to account for all observations, so these effective emissivities are approximate. A summary of effective emissivities is presented in Table 1. In the last column of the table we show the equilibrium temperature for 100% coverage of black body, cloudless ground, clouds or snow. The last row shows the world average. 4 Two box model Figure 2 shows two boxes: one for the upper atmosphere at temperature T2, and one for the surface and lower atmosphere at temperature T .[1] The surface radiates σT 4. A fraction 1 ǫ of this radiation gets through the upper atmosphere≈ (this is the infrared− window), and a fraction ǫ is absorbed by greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. The upper atmosphere 4 4 radiates ǫσT2 back to the lower atmosphere, and ǫσT2 out to space. The total radiation out to space is σT 4 ǫσ T 4 T 4 . (2) − − 2 4 infrared visible T for 100% cover black body 1.00 1.00 279K cloudless ground 0.69 0.90 298K clouds ≈ 0.56 0.55 278K ≈ snow 0.30 0.10 (0.20) 212K (252K) ≈ whole Earth 0.605 0.69 288K Table 1: Effective emissivities for infrared and visible radiation. The last column shows the temperature corresponding to a 100% cover of black body, cloudless ground, cloud or snow. The last row corresponds to 50% cloud cover, 5% snow cover, leaving 45% clear ground. The measured average temperature is 288K. The last term reduces the infrared emission of the Earth (at a given T ) because the upper atmosphere is colder than the surface. This last term is the greenhouse effect. The effective emissivity is 4 T2 ǫIR =1 ǫ 1 . (3) − − T " # We estimate ǫ 0.813 (see next section). For T = 288K we obtain T2 ≈ ≈ 244K. Note that heating of the upper atmosphere reduces the greenhouse effect. Adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere has two opposing effects on T : ǫ increases and T2 increases. 5 Three box model The three box model is shown in Figure 3. The boxes are the surface of the Earth at temperature T , the lower atmosphere at temperature T1, and the upper atmosphere at temperature T2. The total radiation to space is equal to the total solar radiation absorbed (235W/m2), which we assume independent of the concentration of CO2. The solar power absorbed per unit area is 168W/m2 by the surface, and 67W/m2 by the atmosphere. Thermals, evaporation and transpiration are estimated to transport 102W/m2.[1] The atmosphere absorbs radiation at frequencies near vibration resonances of the greenhouse gases, mainly H2O, CO2 and ozone. The fraction of infrared radiation absorbed is ǫ. The atmosphere also radiates at these frequencies. The emissivity of the surface in the infrared is taken to be 1. The sum of powers entering each box is zero. The greenhouse effect is due to the low 5 Figure 2: Two-box model of the greenhouse effect.[1] temperature of the upper atmosphere, so that emission to space is reduced at frequencies near resonances as shown in Figure 1. In Table 2 we show the temperatures as a function of the emissivity of the atmosphere in the infrared (ǫ).