Applying Queueing Theory and Architecturally-Oriented Early Stage Ship Design to the Concept of a Vessel Deploying a Fleet of Uninhabited Vehicles by Nikolaos Kouriampalis A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering) Department of Mechanical Engineering University College London 2019 1 "Ἐὰν ταῖς γλώσσαις τῶν ἀνθρώπων λαλῶ καὶ τῶν ἀγγέλων, ἀγάπην δὲ μὴ ἔχω, γέγονα χαλκὸς ἠχῶν ἢ κύμβαλον ἀλαλάζον" Προς Κορινθίους Α' 13 επιστολή Παύλου "If I speak in the tongues of men or of angels, but do not have love, I am only a resounding gong or a clanging cymbal" 1 Corinthians 13:1 Paul’s Epistle 2 Declaration I, Nikolaos Kouriampalis, declare that except where explicit reference is made to other sources, this thesis is the result of my own work. I confirm that this thesis has not been submitted for any other degree at University College London or any other institution. Print Name: Signature: 3 Abstract Uninhabited vehicles technology is becoming important in naval warfare, providing an entirely new capability. By projecting power through the deployment of such vehicles, the exposure of humans to military threats is reduced. Although the Royal Navy is pursuing the employment of uninhabited vehicles for a variety of applications, the concept of a substantial fleet of such vehicles, operated from a mothership, able to host and support their operations during a mission scenario, is still a novel design challenge. In the initial design stages, when little of design effort has been committed, ship design details will be far from fully defined and are still amenable to change without significant implications on the programme budget, or schedule. Consequently, there is a need to consider how more informed, early, but yet significant design decisions can be made regarding the design of a mothership deploying a fleet of uninhabited vehicles. Delivering a mothership’s operational capability through a complement of uninhabited vehicles would determine the ship’s configuration. The proposed approach, developed as part of this research, consists of decision-making and ship concept design tools, and provides a holistic means of integrating aspects of a fleet of uninhabited vehicles into early stage mothership design. The first tool uses queueing theory and has been employed to capture the impact of the required facilities to host and support a fleet of uninhabited vehicles carried in the ship’s mission bay and subsequently impact on the overall ship design, as well as providing a measure of the ship’s mission effectiveness. The second tool utilises the advantages of architecturally-oriented initial ship design approach to obtain balanced mothership designs and perform some early stage naval architecture analyses. The overall aim of proposing a quantitative approach to mothership performance has been demonstrated, showing the impact of operating a fleet of uninhabited vehicles, resulting in large costly vessels. Several limitations identified during the development and the implementation of the new approach have suggested areas for future work. It was concluded that the proposed approach would be appropriate to inform early investigation of the implications of operating a fleet of uninhabited vehicles from a new mothership configuration, since it allows a relatively fast exploration and comparison of different mothership design options against cost-capability criteria. However, it is suggested that while favourable design options could emerge through such comparative studies, these would merit from further investigations using simulation techniques that could refine the inputs to such novel ship concepts. 4 Impact Statement The design of a mothership able to accommodate and support a fleet of uninhabited vehicles is a new concept of operations for navies and other maritime operators. Such a new technology is a multifaceted problem and hence a considerable number of issues need to be properly investigated for its implementation. Despite that, it is considered that this research has contributed to enhancing the extent of what can be assessed in the very early (i.e. early concept), but formative stages of the design process of complex engineering systems like warships. This research project was partly sponsored by BAE Systems, the largest defence and shipbuilding company in the U.K. and one of the world’s largest producers of complex warships. During the four years of research work at UCL, regular project meetings with BAE Systems representatives contributed to gaining practical insights regarding the broad demands and likely emergent issues for such a very early-stage mothership design scenario. The potential mothership pre-concept design options developed as part of this research were based on such broad specifications. It is hoped that the outcome of this research will support BAE Systems to identify and better address potential issues regarding the integration of a fleet of uninhabited vehicles in a mothership, as well as the likely implications of such technology on the warship design. Therefore, this research will encourage BAE Systems to adopt an approach, such as the one demonstrated in this thesis, at the earliest design stage of a potential actual mothership design programme in the future. The insights emerged throughout this research could also justify further research into a certain area to refine the proposed mothership design approach, namely simulation techniques as a more realistic and less limited means to conduct operations research. 5 Acknowledgments Although I as sole author have full responsibility for the research presented in this thesis, it would not have been possible without the support of a number of individuals. First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisors; Prof. David Andrews for giving me the chance to work in his research group, his mentoring, guidance and support throughout the duration of my PhD; and Dr. Rachel Pawling for her generous assistance and constructive discussions. Moreover, funding for this research project was provided by EPSRC (CASE studentship) and sponsorship by BAE Systems, for which I am grateful to both institutes. I would particularly like to thank BAE Systems representatives; Dr. Malcolm Robb; Dr. Richard Trumper; and Mr. David Lewis, all of whom belong to the Research and Technology Group at BAE Systems Maritime - Naval Ships, for the regular and constructive progress meetings. I would also like to acknowledge the assistance readily provided to me by the staff of the UCL Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering section and the wider UCL Department of Mechanical Engineering. Many thanks go to all my friends for their support and a special thanks goes to Dr. Dimitrios Papadakos. I would finally like to thank my family, and particularly my sister Konstantina, as they have been an invaluable source of support and strength all these years. 6 Applying Queueing Theory and Architecturally Oriented Early Stage Ship Design to the Concept of a Vessel Deploying a Fleet of Uninhabited Vehicles Table of Contents Table of Contents ____________________________________________________ 7 List of Figures ______________________________________________________ 12 List of Tables_______________________________________________________ 17 Nomenclature ______________________________________________________ 20 List of Symbols _____________________________________________________ 23 Chapter 1: Introduction ____________________________________________ 24 1.1 Uninhabited Vehicles in Naval Operations ................................................. 24 1.2 Research Aim and Scope ............................................................................. 26 1.3 Thesis Structure ........................................................................................... 29 Chapter 2: Review of the State of the Art of Uninhabited Vehicles in Naval Operations Supported from Surface Ships ________________________________ 32 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 32 2.2 Deployment of Uninhabited Vehicles from Surface Ships in Naval Warfare 34 2.2.1 Background to Uninhabited Vehicles ----------------------------------------34 2.2.2 Use of Uninhabited Vehicles in Support of Naval Missions -------------36 2.2.3 Operational Considerations of Uninhabited Vehicles and Design Implications for Mother Vessels -------------------------------------------------------38 2.2.4 Launch and Recovery Issues of Uninhabited Vehicles Operated from Surface Ships ------------------------------------------------------------------------------42 2.2.4.1 Sea State Impact on the Operation of Launch and Recovery Systems at Surface Ships -----------------------------------------------------------------------45 2.2.4.2 Other Operational Considerations for Launch and Recovery Systems at Surface Ships -----------------------------------------------------------------------49 2.2.5 Integration of Launch and Recovery Systems into the Mission Bay of a Host Ship ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------51 2.3 Design of an Uninhabited vehicle Mothership ............................................ 59 7 Applying Queueing Theory and Architecturally Oriented Early Stage Ship Design to the Concept of a Vessel Deploying a Fleet of Uninhabited Vehicles 2.3.1 Naval Ship Acquisition Process and Requirements Elucidation ---------59