Aalborg Universitet SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT FOR FOUR LARGER FISHING PORTS AND THEIR COMMUNITIES Eliasen, Søren; Kirkfeldt, Trine Skovgaard; Aaen, Sara Bjørn; Jacobsen, Rikke Becker Publication date: 2018 Link to publication from Aalborg University Citation for published version (APA): Eliasen, S. Q., Kirkfeldt, T. S., Aaen, S. B., & Jacobsen, R. B. (2018). SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT FOR FOUR LARGER FISHING PORTS AND THEIR COMMUNITIES: An assessment of potential consequences of Brexit for the ports and communities of Skagen, Hirtshals, Hanstholm and Thyborøn. Aalborg/København. General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. ? 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A report by Eliasen, Søren Qvist; Kirkfeldt, Trine Skovgaard; Aaen, Sara and Jacobsen, Rikke Becker IFM, Aalborg University January 2018 1 Eliasen, Søren Qvist; Kirkfeldt, Trine Skovgaard; Aaen, Sara and Jacobsen, Rikke Becker 2017. Socio- economic consequences of Brexit for four larger fishing ports and their communities. An assessment of potential consequences of Brexit for the ports and communities of Skagen, Hirtshals, Hanstholm and Thyborøn. Aalborg University, ISBN nr. 978-87-91404-98-6, the serie 91404 Teknologi, Miljø og Samfund, Institut for Planlægning. 2 CONTENTS 1 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. 7 2 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................................... 11 3 PRESENTATIONS OF THE FOUR COMMUNITIES ...................................................................................... 14 3.1 Skagen.............................................................................................................................................. 16 3.2 Hirtshals ........................................................................................................................................... 19 3.3 Hanstholm ....................................................................................................................................... 21 3.4 Thyborøn ......................................................................................................................................... 24 4 THE FISHING INDUSTRY IN THE FOUR COMMUNITIES ............................................................................ 27 4.1 The fleets ......................................................................................................................................... 27 4.2 Landings ........................................................................................................................................... 30 4.2.1 The geographical origin ........................................................................................................... 30 4.2.2 Landing volumes ...................................................................................................................... 31 4.2.3 Landing value ........................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.4 Conclusions on the profiles of the ports ................................................................................. 34 4.2.5 The influence of other EU vessels’ landings caught in the UK EEZ .......................................... 34 5 ANALYSIS OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF BREXIT ......................................................... 37 5.1 Economic and employment consequences ..................................................................................... 37 5.1.1 Operationalisation of scenarios ............................................................................................... 37 5.1.2 Scenario 1 – Economic and employment effects .................................................................... 38 5.1.3 Scenario 2 – Economic and employment effects .................................................................... 40 5.1.4 Conclusions on economic and employment consequences of Brexit scenarios ..................... 42 5.2 Overall influence from decreasing fishing activities in the four communities ................................ 43 5.2.1 Dependency ............................................................................................................................. 43 5.2.2 Resilience ................................................................................................................................. 45 5.2.3 Conclusion on potential effects for the communities ............................................................. 46 6 TRENDS AND FURTHER PERSPECTIVES ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES ...................................................... 48 6.1 Spread effects in the fishing industry .............................................................................................. 48 6.2 Counteracting activities in the industry .......................................................................................... 48 7 CONCLUSIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 50 8 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................................. 53 8.1 Respondents .................................................................................................................................... 53 3 8.2 Extended description of assumptions and operationalisation of scenarios and calculations ........ 54 8.2.1 Calculating the loss of landing value for the vessels and allocation to land-based sectors in the scenarios............................................................................................................................................ 54 8.2.2 Allocation of lost landing value to reduced turnover for sectors at the home port ............... 55 8.2.3 Modelling the economic and employment consequences of the scenarios ........................... 55 8.2.4 Effects of loss of fish resources for processing industries (scenario 2 only) ........................... 56 8.3 Dependency model .......................................................................................................................... 58 9 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................. 61 List of figures and tables List of tables Page Table 1.1: The calculated direct loss of income (turnover) for vessels and induced loss of turnover for service 8 providers, regional level. Table 1.2: The calculated direct loss of jobs (full-time equivalents) under scenario 1 and 2 – all at the regional level. 9 Table 1.3: Assessment of community dependencies on UK-EEZ landings. 9 Table 3.1: Population in the communities and their municipalities, 2017. Source: Statistics Denmark, BY1. 15 Table 3.2: Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force in the municipalities of the four communities, per 16 January. Source: Statistics Denmark, AUP02, month 1. Table 4.1: Volume of all (Danish and foreign) landings in the four ports, tonnes, average 2011–2015. Most important 31 species in the port are marked in bold. Source: Dynamic landing statistics, lbst.dk. Table 4.2: Landings from the UK EEZ, Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, tonnes. Most important species in 32 the port marked in bold. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register. Table 4.3: Relative importance of landing volume from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels of all landings 32 (Danish and foreign) in the four ports, %, average 2011–2015. Table 4.4: Value of all (Danish and foreign) landing in the four ports, DKK 1,000, average 2011–2015. Most important 33 species in the port are marked in bold. Source: Danish AgriFish Agency, Dynamic landing statistics. Table 4.5: Landings from the UK EEZ by Danish vessels. Average 2011–2015, value DKK 1,000. Most important 33 species in the port are marked in bold. Source: The Danish AgriFish Agency vessel register, logbook and sales notes register. Table 4.6: Relative importance of Danish landings from the UK EEZ of all (Danish and foreign) in the four ports, 34 % of value, average 2011–2015. Bold: important species – high volume and of relative importance, italic: low volume, therefore not of importance for the port and community. Source: Own calculation. 4 Table 4.7: