Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs. Dufault, Mrs. Lennon, Dr. Doran, and Dr. Kimball for always believing in me and my potential. ii Acknowledgements The author would like to acknowledge his thesis committee: Dr. Barry D. Keim (chair/advisor), Dr. Jill C. Trepanier, and Dr. Alan W. Black for their guidance given to the author in the completion of this thesis. The author wishes to provide a special acknowledgement to his cohort, especially Dr. Rudy Bartels, Derek Thompson, and Vinny Brown for their advice and support during the completion of this thesis. In addition, the author would like to thank the Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana Office of State Climatology, the Southern Regional Climate Center, the Graduate School, and the Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program for support needed to complete this thesis. iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................iii List of Tables .........................................................................................................................v List of Figures ........................................................................................................................vi Abstract .................................................................................................................................vii Chapter 1. Introduction ..........................................................................................................1 1.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................1 1.2. Objectives ...........................................................................................................2 1.3. Background .........................................................................................................3 Chapter 2. Return Periods and Spatial and Temporal Variability of Northeastern and Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones .............................................................................8 2.1. Introduction .........................................................................................................8 2.2. Background .........................................................................................................8 2.3. Data and Methods ...............................................................................................12 2.4. Results and Discussion .......................................................................................16 2.5. Conclusions .........................................................................................................31 Chapter 3. Influences of Atmospheric Oscillations on TC Strikes/Tracks along the Mexican Riviera .........................................................................................................34 3.1. Introduction .........................................................................................................34 3.2. Background .........................................................................................................35 3.3. Data and Methods ...............................................................................................39 3.4. Results and Discussion .......................................................................................44 3.5. Conclusions .........................................................................................................71 Chapter 4. Conclusions ..........................................................................................................73 4.1. General Conclusions ...........................................................................................73 4.2. Broader Impacts, Implications, and Limitations .................................................75 4.3. Future Work ........................................................................................................76 Appendix A. Summary of Tropical Cyclone Strikes and Track Maps of Striking Tropical Cyclones by Location ................................................................................................78 Appendix B. Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone Striking/Tracking Datasets .........................126 References ..............................................................................................................................133 Vita .........................................................................................................................................139 iv List of Tables Table 1. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) ............................................7 Table 2. Summary of Study Area Locations ..........................................................................14 Table 3. Total TC Strikes by Location ...................................................................................18 Table 4. Results of the Shapiro-Wilkes Normality Test- Strike/Track Datasets ...................45 Table 5. Results of the Shapiro-Wilkes Normality Test- Oscillation Datasets ......................46 Table 6. Results of Correlation Tests and Associated Models for the striking_count Dataset ...............................................................................................48 Table 7. Results of Poisson Models for the striking_count Dataset ......................................50 Table 8. Results of Correlation Tests and Associated Models for the striking_per Dataset ...................................................................................................51 Table 9. Results of Correlation Tests and Associated Models for the tracking_count Dataset...............................................................................................55 Table 10. Results of Poisson Models for the tracking_count Dataset ...................................55 Table 11. Results of Correlation Tests and Associated Models for the tracking_per Dataset ..................................................................................................57 Table 12. Results of Correlation Tests and Associated Models for the tracknoIS_count Dataset ............................................................................................61 Table 13. Results of Poisson Models for the tracknoIS_count Dataset .................................63 Table 14. Results of Correlation Tests and Associated Models for the tracknoIS_per Dataset ................................................................................................65 Table B1. Oceanic Niño Index Datasets ................................................................................126 Table B2. Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index Datasets ..........................................................127 Table B3. 30mb Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Index Datasets .................................................128 Table B4. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index Datasets.................................................129 Table B5. Striking and Tracking Datasets .............................................................................131 v List of Figures Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Strike Model ..............................................................................12 Figure 2. Study Area of the American Pacific Coast and Hawaii .........................................13 Figure 3. Spatiotemporal distribution of TC Strikes .............................................................19 Figure 4. Map of Tropical Cyclone Return Periods- Baja California ....................................23 Figure 5. Map of Tropical Cyclone Return Periods- Mainland Mexico ................................24 Figure 6. Map of Tropical Cyclone