Chair for Southeast Asia Studies Southeast Asia from Scott Circle Volume VI | Issue 25 | December 17, 2015 What’s Next for U.S. Policy toward Myanmar? phuong nguyen Inside This Issue biweekly update Phuong Nguyen is associate fellow with the Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies • U.S. temporarily removes license on Yangon port owned by blacklisted company in Washington, D.C. • Singapore agrees to rotation of U.S. P-8 December 17, 2015 surveillance flights • Thai police investigate U.S. ambassador for lèse-majesté violations The resounding victory of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), in the November 8 elections is an • Najib secures UMNO support at party’s annual outcome many in the United States had long wanted to see. But rather assembly despite political pressure than being an end goal in itself, the election results signaled the start looking ahead of a more challenging process and have taken Myanmar into completely uncharted territory. • India’s Security Interests in Southeast Asia U.S. officials who visited Myanmar after the elections have warned that, although the outcomes of the poll and the manner in which it took place were cause for celebration, nothing should be taken for granted during the period ahead. Aung San Suu Kyi met with President Thein Sein and Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, both of whom reaffirmed their support for a smooth handover of power to the NLD next year. She also sat down with former dictator Than Shwe, who is said to still command significant influence within the military establishment. He reportedly told her that he recognizes her as the future leader of Myanmar. However, it is the deals, if any, that may have emerged from those meetings between Aung San Suu Kyi and the military, rather than any pledges, that will set the rules for the next chapter of Myanmar politics. The United States, which had gone all in to support the elections and, before that, the start of the reform process, needs to configure a new, constructive role for itself in this fast-changing environment. The good 1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Southeast Asia fromSoutheast the Corner Asia of from 18th Scott & K Streets Circle DecemberNovember 17,9, 20112015 | | 2 2 What’sWhat’s Two Models NextNext forfor IntegratingU.S.U.S. PolicyPolicy Asia:towardtoward A Must Myanmar?Myanmar? Win for ((continued)continued) President Obama (continued) news is that U.S interests and those of the incoming government are fundamentally aligned. Washington wants to see continued democratic reforms and greater economic development in the country under the next government, while the NLD was given a strong mandate for further change—which ultimately comes down mostly to job creation, economic growth, and improvement in the standards of living of ordinary citizens across Myanmar. The United States Agency for International Development has begun consultations with senior NLD officials to better understand the party’s policy priorities—and offer technical assistance where possible—on key Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, June issues including economic and legal reforms, public health care, and ethnic 2012. Her party, the National League reconciliation. Yet in light of continued fiscal constraints at home and for Democracy, won over 70 percent competing foreign policy priorities abroad, Washington will need to use of contested seats in the November 8 its resources prudently and effectively. The capacity-building needs within elections and is expected to take office in April 2016. https://www.flickr.com/photos/ the NLD’s ranks are immense—few of its members have had any governing dfid/7413301636/ experience—and an economic agenda that can deliver dividends on the scale expected by much of the population when it voted for the party will require tremendous development resources. Engaging with military stakeholders and those in Myanmar who are less enthusiastic about the pace of change in the country will be crucial to both U.S. policy and the success of any future governments. The poor performance of the military-led Union Solidarity and Development Party at the poll came as a shock to most of Myanmar’s traditional elite. While military leaders may have come to terms with the prospect of Aung San Suu Kyi’s rule—something they had spent decades and countless efforts to prevent—they still control enough of the administrative, military, and financial resources to pull strings behind the scenes. Some within the U.S. government understandably support inching a little closer to Myanmar on military-to-military engagement. The next phase of this relationship should, however, be guided by a full grasp of the Myanmar military’s entrenched role, interests, and the extent of its involvement across all areas—the formal and illicit economies, ethnic armed conflicts, and even the resurging narcotics trade. Aung San Suu Kyi is said to prefer a slow pace of engagement between the Myanmar and U.S. militaries. Bilateral defense cooperation over the past two years has focused on training and dialogue on human rights and the rule of law, occasionally interspersed with high-level U.S. visits, a trend that is expected to continue. 1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Southeast Asia from Scott Circle December 17, 2015 | 3 What’s Next for U.S. Policy toward Myanmar? (continued) At the same time, Washington can and should step up visits and exchanges with Myanmar’s armed forces in the years ahead. This is where the importance of coordination and consultation between the executive and legislative branches comes in. Some in Congress who have long supported Aung San Suu Kyi’s pro- democracy struggle and continuously called for the military’s return to civilian control are under the impression that military-to-military engagement has proceeded too quickly since 2012. While the outcomes of the elections have brought the Congress and the administration of President Barack Obama more in line, building support within Congress for any policy adjustments toward Myanmar in the future Road to Myanmar’s Union parliament will be a necessary investment that, if done right, will pay dividends for the in the capital Naypyitaw, which the long run. military built from scratch in the early 2000s. Although the opposition National League for Democracy will be Finally, finding a way forward for the abysmal situation facing the Muslim the ruling party in the next government, Rohingya, who do not have citizenship rights and have been discriminated the military still occupies 25 percent of against, in impoverished Rakhine State will be one of the main challenges seats in the parliament and controls key facing Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, and a U.S. policy priority. administrative, financial, and military resources. https://www.flickr.com/photos/ The United States can play a constructive role by suggesting concrete nznationalparty/8217447853/ actions that can be taken to quietly support the internally displaced Rohingya return to their homes and help both the Rakhine and Rohingya populations build better livelihoods, and raise economic development across the state. Washington should also lead the international community in forging a more constructive narrative on the Rohingya issue, instead of one the new government will find confrontational. ■ 1616 rhode island avenue nw, washington dc 20036 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Biweekly Update myanmar • U.S. temporarily removes sanctions on Yangon port owned by blacklisted company. The U.S. Treasury Department on December 7 issued a general license to suspend sanctions on Yangon’s main port—owned by blacklisted company Asia World—for six months. This decision will allow trade-related transactions such as shipment of goods to and from Myanmar, payments for shipping and handling charges, and trade finance transactions to be carried out at the port without violating existing sanctions. Asia World is owned by tycoon Steven Law, who remains on the U.S. sanctions list and whose father is deceased drug lord Lo Hsing Han. The White House said it is not yet considering a complete removal of remaining sanctions on Myanmar. • Aung San Suu Kyi meets former dictator Than Shwe, government appoints committee to oversee transition. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on December 4 met with former military dictator Than Shwe, a meeting some observers believed was crucial to the power handover from the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party to the National League for Democracy (NLD) in 2016. Aung San Suu Kyi met with both outgoing and incoming ethnic lawmakers on December 7, and asked them to work with the future government on the issue of national reconciliation. President Thein Sein on December 10 appointed an eight- member committee, six of whom are current government officials and Former dictator Than Shwe. Opposition the remaining two NLD representatives, charged with facilitating the leader Aung San Suu Kyi and Than Shwe transition. reportedly met in Naypyidaw on December 4 to discuss the power handover from • Parliament ratifies peace accord signed with eight ethnic armed the military-backed government to the groups. Myanmar’s outgoing parliament on December 10 ratified a peace National League for Democracy next accord that the government of President Thein Sein signed with eight year. Many observers believed Than Shwe, who stepped down in 2011, still holds armed ethnic groups in October. Political dialogue between government considerable power within the military negotiators and signatory groups is expected to start by mid-January leadership. https://flic.kr/p/nKAJTc next year, before a new government led by the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) takes office next year.