Establishing Priorities through use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis for a Commodity Based Trade approach to Beef Exports from the East Caprivi Region of Namibia FINAL REPORT Cassidy, D., Thomson, G., Barnes, J., February 25, 2013 CONTENTS ACRONYMS/INITIALISMS ...................................................................................................................5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................7 1 BACKGROUND / INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................8 1.1 Commodity based trade ............................................................................................................ 8 1.2 Multi criteria decision analysis ................................................................................................... 9 2 OVERVIEW OF THE SANITARY AND PHYTOSANITARY SITUATION IN NAMIBIA ................................. 10 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Prior reviews of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) requirements and capacity building in Namibia in the context of agricultural policy ................................................................................. 10 2.3 Background and status of Namibia in respect of compliance to the World Trade Organization Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement and reporting obligations ............................................... 11 3. ESTABLISHING SANITARY AND PHYTOSANITARY PRIORITIES USING A MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION- MAKING FRAMEWORK ..................................................................................................................... 12 Stage 1: Compilation of information dossier .................................................................... 12 Stage 2: Developing a series of reviews ............................................................................ 12 Stage 3: Definition of choice set ....................................................................................... 12 Stage 4: Definition of decision criteria and weights ......................................................... 14 Stage 5: Construction of information cards ...................................................................... 14 Stage 6: Construction of spider diagrams ......................................................................... 16 Stage 7: Derivation of quantitative priorities ................................................................... 16 Stage 8: Validation ............................................................................................................ 17 4 FINDINGS ...................................................................................................................................... 17 4.1 Land use options for the Caprivi region ................................................................................... 17 4.2 Results ...................................................................................................................................... 20 5 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 26 APPENDIXES .................................................................................................................................... 28 APPENDIX 1; SELECTED REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................. 28 Animal production in Namibia ....................................................................................................... 28 Biodiversity .................................................................................................................................... 29 Economic and financial studies ...................................................................................................... 31 Food safety ..................................................................................................................................... 32 Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area - general ....................................................... 32 Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area - tourism ...................................................... 33 Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area wildlife ......................................................... 33 Land degradation ........................................................................................................................... 34 Land use options – Kwandu, Kwando, Salambala and state land .................................................. 35 Land use options - conservancies .................................................................................................. 36 Animal production policy in Namibia ............................................................................................. 38 Social background papers in Namibia ............................................................................................ 39 Economic reviews of Commodity Based Trade.............................................................................. 40 Technical studies and papers on commodity based trade (CBT) ................................................... 41 Page | 2 Carbon sequestration and land management ............................................................................... 43 APPENDIX 2; LIST OF PERSONS CONSULTED ...................................................................................... 46 APPENDIX 3; REVIEWS CARRIED OUT IN THE COURSE OF THE STUDY ................................................. 47 Introduction; the Kavango-Zambezi Trans Frontier Conservation Area ........................................ 47 Purpose and establishment of the Conservation Area ..................................................... 47 3.1 Carbon balances in savanna under different management regimes ....................................... 50 3.2; Literature review and discussion document; Ecological values attributed to land use patterns in the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area ............................................. 56 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 56 Carbon sequestration ....................................................................................................... 56 Plant species diversity ....................................................................................................... 57 Animal diversity ................................................................................................................ 57 3.3 Land use systems in the Caprivi area of Namibia .................................................................... 58 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 58 Protected areas ................................................................................................................. 58 Traditional communal lands ............................................................................................. 59 Private land ....................................................................................................................... 61 Concessions ....................................................................................................................... 62 Populating an Alternatives list for multi criteria decision analysis ................................... 62 3.4 Possible social impacts of land use options and commodity based trade in beef in the Caprivi ....................................................................................................................................................... 63 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 63 Agricultural productivity ................................................................................................... 63 Poverty impacts ................................................................................................................ 64 Impact on vulnerable groups/areas .................................................................................. 64 Number of households involved ....................................................................................... 65 Women ............................................................................................................................. 66 Children ............................................................................................................................. 66 Vulnerable areas ............................................................................................................... 66 Smallholders ..................................................................................................................... 66 Unemployed...................................................................................................................... 67 3.5 Scenarios for beef cattle production and beef exports from the Caprivi area of Namibia ..... 70 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 70 Option 1; Status quo ........................................................................................................