Durham E-Theses The making of Lebanese foreign policy: The case of the 2006 Hizballah-Israeli war WILKINS, HENRIETTA,CHARLOTTE How to cite: WILKINS, HENRIETTA,CHARLOTTE (2011) The making of Lebanese foreign policy: The case of the 2006 Hizballah-Israeli war , Durham theses, Durham University. Available at Durham E-Theses Online: http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/775/ Use policy The full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that: • a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in Durham E-Theses • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders. Please consult the full Durham E-Theses policy for further details. Academic Support Oce, Durham University, University Oce, Old Elvet, Durham DH1 3HP e-mail: [email protected] Tel: +44 0191 334 6107 http://etheses.dur.ac.uk 2 The making of Lebanese foreign policy: The case of the 2006 Hizballah-Israeli war Henrietta Charlotte Wilkins The thesis is submitted for the degree of doctor of philosophy School of Government and International Affairs University of Durham January 2011 Abstract This thesis assesses the relevance of Waltz and Wendt’s systemic theories of international relations for understanding Lebanon’s international political behaviour during the 2006 war. It tests the hypothesis that substate factors, especially identity, are more important than systemic factors for affecting the conditions against which states make foreign policy-decisions. Using data collected from interviews and the analysis of primary and secondary sources, it looks at the decisions made by the Lebanese government in the context of the 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah. It seeks to identify whether factors at the systemic, state or sub-state levels were the main influence on Lebanese foreign policy-making during this period. It concludes that sub-state identities were a crucial factor affecting Lebanon’s international political behaviour and foreign policy-making capacity because they fractured the state from below and compromised its ability to act like a united, rational and coherent security-maximising actor. As a result the state was unable to react to systemic structures in the way systemic theories of international relations assume. However, as the war progressed and Lebanon came under increasing threat from Israel, different internal groups united together and the state, temporarily, began to act like a rational, security maximising actor as Waltz and Wendt assume. This means that Waltz and Wendt’s theories of international relations are unable to fully account for the conditions affecting Lebanese foreign policy making during the initial stages of the war. This highlights the need for a more pluralistic approach to fully understand the conditions that affect the foreign policy-making of the Lebanese state. ii Declaration This thesis is the result of my own work. Material from the published or unpublished work of others which is used in the thesis is credited to the author in question in the text. None of the materials in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree qualification at this or any other university. Signed…………………………….. Date……………………………….. © The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. No quotation from it should be published without the author’s written consent, and information derived from it should be acknowledged. iii Acknowledgements Many thanks to all my friends in Durham and Lebanon for their support and encouragement; Emma Murphy for her comments and for keeping me going and my parents, John Williams for his advice and my parents, Nina and Ralph Wilkins, for their support throughout my research. I would also like to thank everyone I interviewed, both in Lebanon and the UK, The Council for British Research in the Levant (CBRL) for their help funding my research, The Centre for Arab and Middle Eastern Studies (CAMES) for sponsoring my affiliation to the American University in Beirut, the Carnegie Middle East Institute for its help when I first arrived in Lebanon, and to everyone at the Orient Institute in Beirut for giving me a calm place to study. iv Table of contents Abstract................................................................................................................................................... ii Declaration...........................................................................................................................................iii Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................ iv Table of contents ................................................................................................................................ iv List of abbreviations......................................................................................................................... vii Map of Lebanon (2010) ..................................................................................................................viii Map of south Lebanon (2006)........................................................................................................ ix Chapter 1: Introduction.................................................................................................................1 Chapter 2: Theoretical framework: the foreign policy of Arab states...........................6 2.1 Theoretical framework............................................................................................................................ 7 2.2 Systemic theories and Arab states ....................................................................................................12 2.3 Systemic level: regional system ..........................................................................................................13 2.3.1 External penetration of the regional state system...................................................... 14 2.3.2 Regional conflict and security.............................................................................................. 19 2.4 State level.....................................................................................................................................................22 2.5 Supra-state and sub-state identity....................................................................................................25 2.6 Conclusion....................................................................................................................................................32 Chapter 3: Historical overview of Lebanese foreign policy............................................34 3.1 Pre 1920 to the end of French mandate .........................................................................................35 3.2 The National Pact to the Civil War...................................................................................................37 3.3 The Civil War 1975 -1990.....................................................................................................................43 3.4 1990 until the 2006 war........................................................................................................................47 3.5 The confessional system: empowering sub-state identities ...................................................56 3.5.1 Multiple foreign policies......................................................................................................... 58 3.5.2 Influence of external actors................................................................................................... 60 3.5.3 Weak institutions....................................................................................................................... 66 3.5.3 Prioritising economic interests ........................................................................................... 68 3.3 Conclusion....................................................................................................................................................70 Chapter 4: Methodology .............................................................................................................72 4.1 ‘Meta-methodology’.................................................................................................................................72 4.2 ‘Micro-methodology’ ...............................................................................................................................74 4.2.1 Semi-structured interviews .................................................................................................. 75 4.2.2 Analysis of primary and secondary material................................................................. 80 4.3 Conclusion....................................................................................................................................................81 Chapter 5: The regional and domestic implications of the 2006 war.........................82 5.1 History of Israeli-Lebanese border disputes .................................................................................82 5.2 The Middle East in 2006: Lebanon in the regional context ...................................................85 5.3 Narrative