Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia Kneza Viseslava 66 11000 Belgrade Republic of Serbia MONTHLY BULLETIN FOR SERBIA OCTOBER 2020 Belgrade, the 5th of November 2020 Division for Climate Monitoring and Climate Forecast Department of National Center for Climate Change, Climate Model Development and Disaster Risk Assessment web: http://www.hidmet.gov.rs mail: [email protected] Contents AIR TEMPERATURE ............................................................................................................... 1 Mean monthly air temperature ........................................................................................... 1 Maximum air temperature .................................................................................................. 4 Minimum air temperature ................................................................................................... 5 PRECIPITATION ...................................................................................................................... 8 CLOUD COVER, BRIGHT AND CLOUDY DAYS ............................................................. 13 SUNSHINE DURATION (INSOLATION) ............................................................................ 14 OVERVIEW OF THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION* ................................................................. 15 APPENDIX .............................................................................................................................. 16 Mean monthly air temperature ......................................................................................... 16 Maximum air temperature ................................................................................................ 19 Minimum air temperature ................................................................................................. 22 Precipitation ..................................................................................................................... 25 Warm and averagely warm, rainy and averagely rainy October in most of Serbia Sombor observed record-breaking maximum daily air temperature for October 3rd wettest October for Kopaonik, 8th westtest for Zrenjanin since the record-keeping began AIR TEMPERATURE Mean monthly air temperature October 2020 ranks as the 17th wettest for Serbia in the period from 1951 to 2020 (Figure 1). October 2020 ranks as the 7th warmest for Negotin (Figure 2) since the record-keeping began at this station and 25th warmest for Belgrade since 1887. Figure 1. Rank of the warmest and coldest October for Serbia for the 1951-2020 period 1 Figure 2. Rank of the highest October air temperature in Negotin for the 1927-2020 period Mean October air temperature ranged from 11.2ºС in Pozega to 14.3ºС in Belgrade, and on the mountains from 5.7ºС at Kopaonik to 10.0ºС at Zlatibor (Figure 3). Departure of the mean monthly air temperature from the normal 1 for the 1981–2010 base period ranged from 0.6ºС in Sjenica to 2.2ºС in Negotin (Figure 4). Mean air temperature in October, based on the percentile method2, was in the normal and warm categories in most of the country, and very warm category in Cuprija, Negotin and Zajecar (Figure 5). 1 Term normal refers to climatological standard normal, that is, the average value of a particular climate element, calculated for the period from January 1, 1981 to December 31, 2010 2 n-th percentile of a variable refers to the value of the observed variable below which there is n percent of data previously arranged in an ascending order 2 Figure 3. Spatial distribution of mean monthly air Figure 4. Spatial distribution of mean monthly air temperature (ºС) temperature anomaly (ºС) Figure 5. Spatial distribution of mean monthly air temperature according to the percentile method 3 Mean daily air temperature in Belgrade, based on the percentile method was in the normal category most of the month, in the extremely warm category at the beginning of October, in the middle of third decade in the warm category and twice in mid-October in cold category (Figure 6). Daily course of the mean daily air temperature and the accompanying percentiles for the stations Novi Sad, Loznica, Negotin, Kragujevac, Zlatibor and Nis are given in the Appendix. Figure 6. Daily course of the mean daily air temperature and accompanying percentiles for Belgrade Maximum air temperature Mean maximum air temperature in October ranged from 18.3ºС in Kikinda to 20.6ºС in Nis, and Belgrade observed mean maximum air temperature of 19.2ºС. On the mountains, mean maximum October air temperature ranged from 9.8ºС at Kopaonik to 16.2ºС in Sjenica. Based on the percentile method, mean monthly maximum air temperature was in the normal category in most of the country, warm category in Kraljevo, Dimitrovgrad, Crni Vrh, Zlatibor and Sjenica, and very warm category in Negotin and Zajecar. In October, the highest maximum daily air temperature of 31.8ºС was recorded in Krusevac on October 5. Belgrade observed the highest daily air temperature of 29.5ºС on October 3. On the same day, Sombor observed record-breaking maximum daily air temperature for October of 30.0ºС besting the previous record of 29.4ºС from October 3, 2006. 4 Number of summer days3 ranged from 2 on Palic and Negotin to 7 in Nis. In the upland there weren’t any summer days recorded. Number of summer days was around October average in most places, from 1 day below the average in Loznica to 2 days above the average in Nis. Valjevo, Nis and Leskovac recorded 2 tropical days4, and Sombor, Loznica, Kraljevo, Krusevac and Dimitrovgrad one tropical day. Figure 7 shows daily course of the maximum daily air temperature and the accompanying percentiles for Belgrade, in October 2020 and for the stations Novi Sad, Loznica, Negotin, Kragujevac, Zlatibor and Nis are given in the Appendix. Figure 7. Daily course of the maximum daily air temperature and accompanying percentiles for Belgrade Minimum air temperature Mean minimum air temperature in October ranged from 6.3ºС in Kursumlija to 10.6ºС in Belgrade. On the mountains, mean minimum air temperature ranged from 2.6ºС in Sjenica to 6.4ºС at Crni Vrh. Based on the percentile method, mean monthly minimum air temperature was in the warm category in most of Serbia, extremely warm in Negotin, very warm in Sombor, Zrenjanin, Kikinda and Cuprija, and normal category in certain parts of western and central Serbia. The lowest minimum daily air temperature of -5.7ºС was observed in Sjenica on October 21. Belgrade observed lowest daily air temperature of 4.4ºС on October 19. 3 Summer day refers to a day with maximum air temperature of 25°C and above 4 Tropical day refers to a day with maximum air temperature of 30°C and above 5 One tropical night5 was recorded in Banatski Karlovac, Smederevska Palanka, Veliko Gradiste, Kraljevo and Cuprija. Sjenica observed 7 frost days6, Kopaonik – 6, Kursumlija and Zajecar – 4, elsewhere 2 frost days were recorded. Number of frost days was below the average in entire Serbia, up to 6 days below the average. Figure 8 shows assessment of the minimum and maximum air temperature for Serbia in October 2020 based on the tercile distribution relative to the 1981-2010 base period. It can be noted that the maximum and minimum air temperature were above the upper tercile boundary. Figure 8. Assessment of mean maximum and mean minimum air temperature for October in Serbia with the accompanying terciles compared to the 1981-2010 normal 5 Tropical night refers to a day with minimum daily air temperature of 20°С and above 6 Frost day is defined as the day with minimum air temperature lower than 0°С 6 Figure 9 shows daily course of the minimum daily air temperature and the accompanying percentiles for Belgrade in October 2020, and for the stations Novi Sad, Loznica, Negotin, Kragujevac, Zlatibor and Nis are given in the Appendix. Figure 9. Daily course of the minimum daily air temperature and accompanying percentiles for Belgrade 7 PRECIPITATION The observed precipitation sums in October ranged from 47.1 mm in Zajecar to 148.6 mm at Kopaonik, whereas Belgrade observed 93.3 mm of precipitation (Figure 10). Precipitation totals relative to the normal for the 1981-2010 base period ranged from 77% in Valjevo to 252% in Zrenjanin (Figure 11). Figure 10. Spatial distribution of the monthly Figure 11. Spatial distribution of the monthly precipitation sums (mm) according to data from 28 precipitation sums in the percentages of normal for the major meteorological, 19 climatological and 85 rain 1981–2010 base period gauge stations Based on the percentile method, October precipitation sums were in the normal and rainy categories in most of the country, and in very rainy category in Kikinda, Zrenjanin, Kragujevac and Kopaonik (Figure 12). 8 Figure 12. Monthly precipitation sums according to the percentile method October 2020 ranks as the 16th driest for Serbia in the period from 1951 to 2020 (Figure 13). October 2020 ranks as the 3rd wettest for Kopaonik in the period from 1980 to 2020 (Figure 14) and the 8th wettest for Zrenjanin in the period from 1925 to 2020 (Figure 15). Figure 13. Rank of the wettest and driest October for Serbia for the 1951-2020 period 9 Figure 14. The highest October precipitation sums at Kopaonik for the 1980-2020 period Figure 15. The highest October precipitation sums in Zrenjanin for the 1980-2020 period 10 In October, the highest daily precipitation sum of 46.3 mm was measured at Kopaonik on October 6. Belgrade observed maximum daily precipitation sum of 34.9 mm on October 8.