Risk Mitigation following Canterbury Earthquakes Jim Palmer Chief Executive Waimakariri District Council Risk Mitigation – Two Ideas • Risk Assessment and Financing Strategy • Risk–based Reticulation Renewals Waimakariri District Hurunui District Waimakariri District Christchurch City Selwyn District Banks Peninsula Our Challenge We’ve withstood one major event and it cost $127M – can we withstand another one? . We are a net-debt, high-growth Council with few realisable assets . The Alpine Fault failure is ‘overdue’ with a 30% chance within 50 years…. and we have other natural hazard risks Our Response Developed a Risk Assessment and Financing Strategy Risk Assessment and Financing Strategy relating to Considered largest natural risks Major Natural Disasters - earthquake, flood, tsunami November 2014 Our Biggest Risk Our Response . Guestimated what the damage might be . Ground-truth it against the 2010 event . Considered funding strategy, both with and without insurance being available . Assessed impact on net debt & affordability . Developed as policy: . Limits for debt . Priority list for asset replacement Council Funding Position with Crown Support and Insurance Estimated Crown/NZTA Insurance Council Share Reinstatement funding funding Cost $M $M $M $M Above-ground Infrastructure and 30 0 30 0 Buildings Below-ground Infrastructure 67 40 27 0 Roading 40 28 12 Reserves 10 0 0 10 Emergency Response/repairs 20 15 0 5 Community Support 5 0 0 5 Total 172 83 57 32 Debt Limits - borrowing as % of operating revenue Debt Limits with Headroom Outcomes . Gives confidence the consequences of major events can be accommodated . Demonstrates prudent management in terms of debt levels and affordability . Provides priority for asset reinstatement Risk-based Reticulation Renewals • Reticulation renewals were based on age, condition, and performance. • Now, we use a risk-based approach Waimakariri DC – Renewals Profile VULNERABILITY … TO LIQUEFACTION Location relative to hazard is critical. IT’S NOT JUST EARTHQUAKES Risk-based Reticulation Renewals Considered . The burst history of the Water mains & CCTV footage . The remaining useful life . The vulnerability, made up of: . Location . Material ductility . Jointing method . Criticality Waimakariri DC – Renewals Approach Wastewater: • CCTV inspection of ~2% network per annum based on risk profile • Risk score (renewals priority score) to schedule preliminary renewal programme • Renewal method determined from criteria Likelihood Score Consequence Risk CCTV score Blockage history Vulnerability x Score = Score Water: • Burst history and pipe condition recorded • Risk score (renewals priority score) to schedule preliminary renewal programme Likelihood Score Consequence Risk Remaining Blockage history Vulnerability x Score = Score useful life Risk-Based Reticulation Renewals Location Diameter Material Criticality Vulnerability Remaining Risk Score (mm) Useful Life Sewell St, 375 Asbestos AA Extreme 27 6500 Kaiapoi Cement Holland Dr, 100 Polyethylene C Medium 15 248 Kaiapoi Outcomes . Renewal strategy reflects risk . Mains have lower chance of failure . More resilient in future disasters . Quicker return of services to the majority of people So… two ideas • Risk Assessment and Financing Strategy • Risk–based Reticulation Renewals THANK YOU .